BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT FIRES SPEAKER: DEATH KNELL FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SOFIA 000228

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: (##)
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIAN PARLIAMENT FIRES SPEAKER: DEATH KNELL FOR
GOVERNMENT OR SACRIFICIAL LAMB?

Ref: Sofia 217

Classified by Amb. James Pardew for reasons 1.4 b & d


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Parliamentary speaker was ousted February 4 in
the opposition's first step in a march to bring down the
government. Debate on a motion of no confidence is scheduled to
begin February 9, when the opposition will have to muster at least
2 more votes to achieve success. A key Parliamentary group - the
New Times - told us it has confidentially proposed a Parliamentary
union with the governing coalition in exchange for supporting the
government. Finance Minister Milen Velchev, who is leading the
government's defense, told the Ambassador he is mildly optimistic
the government will survive.

OPPOSITION PICKS OFF THE SPEAKER
--------------

2. (C) Parliamentary Speaker Ognyan Gerdzhikov, of the ruling
National Movement of Simeon II (NMS),was voted out of office by a
119-114 margin, with one abstention. Three NMS MPs crossed sides
to vote with a united right-left opposition to oust the speaker.
The rest of the NMS and its junior coalition partner the Turkish
Movement for Rights and Freedom (MRF) voted in his favor. If this
voting pattern holds, the opposition needs only two more votes to
succeed in its no-confidence motion (121 votes in a 240-seat
Parliament). However, it is unclear whether all who voted against
the speaker will also vote against the government. Key votes in
the speaker's downfall came from the New Times MPs - a splinter
group of 13 MPs, which broke from the NMS last year.


3. (C) The formal complaint against the speaker was "systematic
abuse of power and violations of parliamentary procedures." The
complaint stems primarily from a Parliamentary debacle January 28
when Gerdzhikov engineered a lack of quorum that allowed Economy
Minister Shuleva to ignore a Parliamentary request for information
on a major privatization deal. A united opposition (and some
members of the ruling coalition) viewed this as a serious breech
of protocol that also undermined Parliament as an institution.
Their outrage led to Gerdzhikov's removal and the no-confidence
motion. Parliament now has 14 days to elect a new speaker. While
no one has been formally nominated, Anastasiya Moser, leader of
the Bulgarian Agrarian National Union is the most frequently
mentioned replacement. NT Deputy leader Borislav Tsekov told the
press that Moser is the only person equally acceptable to the
Socialists and Center-Right opposition.

FUTURE KINGMAKERS
--------------

4. (C) Miroslav Sevlievski, a leader of the NT, told us privately
his party's "goal is not to topple the government." Rather the
party is working behind the scenes with the PM to form a
parliamentary union with NMS and MRF to better position itself
ahead of the June Parliamentary elections. NT's current two
percent support is well below the 4 percent necessary to enter the
Parliament. To ensure its survival, it is trying to force the
pre-election coalition. NT publicly is calling for the removal of
at least Shuleva and may be after it's own cabinet positions, -
although this does not appear to be a deal breaker. Sevlievski
stressed to us that the Prime Minister "is not their political
rival, in fact it is quite the opposite." Sevlievski also
highlighted that by taking on NT as a coalition partner, the
government will ensure there will not be any "drama" surrounding
Bulgarian troops in Iraq or the April 25 EU accession signing.

NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE AND NEXT STEPS
--------------

5. (C) With no call for an extraordinary session over the weekend,
the Parliament will next meet Wednesday, February 9. On the
evening of Feb. 8, Parliament will set the next day's agenda,
which could include the official debate on the no-confidence
motion. Under this scenario, the earliest the vote will take
place is Thursday February 10 and the latest is the 16th or 17th.
A delay in the vote is seen as beneficial to the ruling party,
allowing it to slow momentum and provide time to cut a deal with
NT and others.


6. (C) If the government loses the vote, NMS, as the largest party
in Parliament, will have seven days to create a new government. If
it fails, the second largest group, the Socialists, will receive
the mandate. If it also fails, the President can pick any
parliamentary group to try its hand at forming a government. And
as a last resort, the President can appoint a caretaker government
until elections are held.

MINISTERS'S FATE
--------------

7. (C) There has been much speculation about the fate of several
Ministers, including Economy, Culture and Interior. Although
press and commentary is focusing on Shuleva joining Gerdzhikov as
sacrificial lambs, the PM is very loyal to his people and may not

GOVERNMENT OR SACRIFICIAL LAMB?

give in to such pressure. Her fate lies with any final deal
constructed between the NMS, MRF and NT.

COMMENT
--------------

8. (C) The government's clumsy handling of a privatization deal
has allowed the Socialists to rally all opposition parties to a
no-confidence motion. While the threat is very real, the
Government will be scrambling this weekend to make the best deal
it can to save itself, although likely in a weakened state.