New Validation Study Shows Lower Than Expected

UNCLAS SOFIA 002069 SIPDIS DEPT FOR CA/FPP, CA/VO/L/C AND CA/VO/F/P E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: CVIS KFRD ASEC BU SUBJECT: New Validation Study Shows Lower Than Expected Overstay Rate Summary: According to our latest validation study, some 11 percent of the Bulgarians issued B visas here between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2004 are still in the United States. The expected margin of error for the study (with a 95 percent confidence rating) is within 1.9 percent. The revealed overstay rate is much lower than generally anticipated, roughly half of what we expected, in fact. We will attempt to use the findings from this study to hone our adjudications against the backdrop of a rising NIV caseload -- we saw the number of our NIV applicants jump by almost 13 percent in FY 2005. Our overall refusal rate remains at about 21 percent. End Summary. Data Collection: Using the methodology endorsed and provided by CA/FPP, we randomly selected 10 percent of all our B1, B2 and B1/B2 issuances from calendar year 2004 (800 out of a total of 8,106). We initially tried to contact each visa holder by telephone. Those we reached in this manner were asked a series of personal questions to verify identity. In those cases where repeated telephone calls proved fruitless, we received invaluable assistance from the GOB. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided us with exit and entry information from the border control database regarding each individual we had been unable to reach, and as a result we were able to verify the whereabouts of all 800 "temporary visitors" we surveyed. Results: Of the 800 selected applicants, 677 (85 percent) returned, 31 (4 percent) did not travel and 92 (11 percent) traveled and did not return. We looked at different possible indicators in analyzing these results, such as the applicants' region, age, gender, prior visa issuance, occupation and marital status. Some of these indicators seemed to have little bearing on the tendency of visa holders to overstay. We found that gender or prior/no prior visa history, for example, were of no predictive value. The difference in overstay rates was essentially the same as the study's margin of error. Applicants who came from small towns and villages, where employment rates and average salaries are lower than in bigger cities, constituted a relatively higher percentage of overstays than their more metropolitan counterparts. Age didn't appear to be as useful an indicator as we had hoped, though we did find that applicants over 60 were significantly less likely to overstay than any other age group (that revelation was somewhat surprising). Two findings in particular did fall in line with our expectations. Applicants who were unemployed or self- employed or who held unskilled or other low-paying jobs, especially clerical office duties, were more likely to overstay. The overstay rate for them varied from 41 percent for the underemployed or unemployed, to 20-25 for the others. Applicants who held managerial positions in the private sector, were skilled laborers, or owned even relatively small private sector businesses overstayed at only a 6-7 percent rate. Divorced or single applicants were also more likely to overstay (by roughly five times),than married visa holders. Comment: This study provided an excellent opportunity to measure our expectations against hard, reliable statistics. As noted, it contained a few surprises. We will be putting our findings to best possible use in informing our adjudications as our caseload continues to grow, and are heartened that our applicant pool has shown some notable signs of improvement, in terms of clear risks for illegal migration. The introduction of visa-free travel for Bulgarians to Europe may be a contributing factor in that regard, as it provides an additional "safety valve" for what would be the worst applicants. Our refusal rate seems steady, though, and indicates the gap between Bulgaria's ambitions for Visa Waiver Program membership and the reality on the ground. Beyrle