UNCLAS SOFIA 001036

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA: NUTS AND BOLTS OF THE JUNE 25TH ELECTION

Ref: (A) SOFIA 808, (B) SOFIA 836, (C) SOFIA 931, (D) SOFIA 1020


1. SUMMARY: Bulgaria holds general elections on June 25 to elect
240 members of parliament for a four-year term. The MPs are
elected through a system of proportional representation in 31
electoral regions, and parties must win a minimum four percent of
the nationwide vote to enter parliament. The 2001 general election
was won by the ruling National Movement for Simeon II (NMSS) which
is now trailing the main opposition Socialists. Elections are
preceded by a month-long campaign - which began May 25.
Preliminary results are announced by the Central Electoral
Commission usually within several hours of the 8 p.m. poll closing.
The President convenes the first session of the new parliament
within a month of the vote. The incumbent government operates on a
lame-duck basis until its successor is approved by the newly
elected parliament, a process which in the past has taken roughly a
month. END SUMMARY


2. As a parliamentary republic, Bulgaria's unicameral parliament
approves the PM and his ministers, exercises control over the
government, and sanctions deployment of troops abroad. Twenty-two
parties and coalitions are running in the elections, compared to 64
in 2001, but opinion polls show only six have a realistic chance to
enter parliament. In previous post-communist elections only three
to five parties have succeeded. Currently, the PM's ruling NMSS,
the poll-leading Socialists, the major center-right coalition led
by the Union of Democratic Forces and the predominantly ethnic
Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) are expected to
safely make it to the next parliament. Two smaller center-right
groups, the Democrats for Strong Bulgaria and the Union of Free
Democrats, hover on the four-percent vote threshold required to be
seated in the parliament as a party (Ref. A, B, D).

THE PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION SYSTEM


3. Under Bulgaria's proportional representation system, parties and
coalitions put up rank-ordered lists of candidates for each of the
country's 31 electoral regions. Each district is allocated a
certain number of seats in parliament, depending on its population.
Citizens cannot change the candidates' order or add or delete names
on the party lists. They in effect cast their vote for the party
rather than the individual. MP candidates can run in two electoral

regions, which is usually the case with the party leaders and the
most popular politicians. If a candidate wins in both places,
he/she steps down in favor of the number two on the list in one of
the regions. The winning party is determined by the parties'
performance at the national level. Parties and coalitions must win
a minimum four percent of the nationwide vote to enter parliament.
Seats are then allocated to the parties in the electoral district
in exactly the same ratio as the distribution of votes between the
different parties in the district. However, the seats are
distributed only among the parties that meet the national
threshold.


4. The distribution of seats in parliament depends both on the
voter turnout and the number of parties and coalitions that cross
the four percent threshold. The votes for parties that do not make
the threshold are redistributed using the d'Hondt method of
proportional representation (also known as the highest average
method), which favors the winning parties with a greater percentage
of assembly seats than their actual vote would win. The party with
the best showing gets the lion's share of the redistributed votes.
Thus, a possible low turnout will likely favor the Socialists who
have the most disciplined electorate, and at this stage seem to be
in the best position to emerge as the biggest parliamentary
faction. If many of the small center-right parties fail to cross
the threshold the largest percentage of their vote will ironically
be added to the Socialists. In 2001, the NMSS received 42.74
percent of the votes but won 50 percent of the seats in Parliament
through the redistributed vote.

ELECTION RULES


5. The election is organized by the Central Electoral Commission
(CEC) whose 25 members are nominated by the President and
parliamentary parties. No single party has a majority. Elections
are preceded by a month-long campaign which kicked off May 25.
Campaigning is forbidden on election day and the day before the
vote. Polling stations open at 6 a.m. and close at 8 p.m. Voting
age is 18. Exit polls are allowed but results cannot be announced
before polling stations close. Preliminary results are usually
announced by CEC within several hours after the end of voting.
Final results for parties and coalitions are published by CEC
within four days. The list of names of newly-elected MPs is
announced in seven days. There will be 11,475 polling stations in
Bulgaria and about 500 polling stations in 72 countries abroad,
with the largest number of stations in the U.S., Canada, Turkey and
Greece. Polling stations are planned for 31 U.S. cities, up from
17 in 2001.

THE BALLOT


6. For the 2005 general election Bulgaria has introduced a
consolidated ballot that includes all parties. Voters check the
party list of their choice. Bulgarians have voted with such ballot

only once - in a local election. In previous general elections
voters had to choose among ballots with different colors for
different political parties, something perceived as an anachronism
contradicting the European electoral practice. The introduction of
a white, consolidated ballot as part of legislative changes
initiated by the ruling NMSS has stirred political passions. The
ethnic Turkish MRF, a junior partner in the government, said the
new ballot might prove difficult to use by the ethnic Turks, some
of whom are illiterate.

FORMING THE NEW GOVERNMENT


7. The President must convene the newly elected MPs for the first
session of parliament within a month of the election. After
political consultations, the President tasks the PM-designate of
the largest parliamentary group to form a government. The
parliamentary group may be a political party, a pre-election
coalition or a post-election union of political groups which ran
separately in the elections. There is no set deadline for the
President to ask the first-place group to form a government.


8. If the parliament fails to approve the government line-up or the
PM-designate fails to propose a cabinet within seven days of being
asked, the mandate goes to the second largest parliamentary group.
If the PM-designate of the second largest group fails to form a
government, the President, at his discretion, tasks any of the
other parliamentary groups to nominate a PM. Only if the third
parliamentary group's PM-designate fails to form a government, does
the President appoint a caretaker PM and government, dissolves
parliament and schedules new elections. The incumbent government
operates on a lame-duck basis until its successor is sworn in
following the elections. The process has taken roughly a month in
past post-communist elections but a drawn out process is also
possible. (Ref. C)