SINGAPORE INPUT -- OIL SUPPLY VULNERABILITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SINGAPORE 003118 SIPDIS NOFORN STATE FOR S/CT, EB/ESC/IEC, INR/EC, DS/ITA STATE PASS OPEC E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2015 TAGS: EPET ETRD EWWT PTER PINR ASEC KHLS SN SUBJECT: SINGAPORE INPUT -- OIL SUPPLY VULNERABILITY REF: SECSTATE 182688 Classified By: Charge' d'Affaires Judith R. Fergin for Reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (S/NF) Post believes that the Government of Singapore (GOS) is taking reasonable measures to ensure the physical security of its oil refining complex on Jurong Island. GOS officials consider terrorist threats the most likely source of disruption to the supply of crude oil reaching Singapore and of refined product destined for export markets. Singapore's geography makes natural disasters such as tsunamis, earthquakes or flooding unlikely. The GOS has a SIPDIS security framework in place to protect its oil refineries, including scenario planning and monthly inter-agency security exercises. ¶2. (S/NF) The following answers correspond to reftel questions: -- Have host governments completed vulnerability assessments of the facilities listed below? The GOS has completed a vulnerability assessment of the Singapore refining complex, which is comprised of 80 petrochemicals and chemicals companies located on Jurong Island. Deputy Prime Minister S. Jayakumar recently told the media that security plans are always being reviewed and enhanced, but existing measures are "working well." Minister Jayakumar said Singapore "take(s) the best of precautions, but must be prepared for the risk of terrorists somehow breaking through." -- What actions have they taken to reinforce protection and harden vulnerable infrastructure to prevent terrorist attacks or other disruption? After 9/11, then-Deputy Prime Minister Tony Tan established a framework to provide long-term protection to Jurong Island. The framework includes monthly security exercises between Singapore's police, military, and Civil Defense Forces. In addition to government-led security enhancements, private businesses are also working to make their facilities less vulnerable to attack. A British Petroleum (BP) representative told Embassy RSO that it requires all of its facilities to operate at a medium threat security level since 9/11, to include: 24-hour security surveillance; strict access control; and street-side barriers to deter vehicle bomb attacks. -- What would be the impact if one of these facilities reduced or halted its output? (Posts are requested to quantify this impact in barrels per day of output.) Singapore reportedly is the world's third largest oil refining center (according to the GOS),and produces 91.5% (2004 average) of its 1.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) total crude oil refining capacity from three main refineries: ExxonMobil (605,000 bbl/d); Shell (458,000 bbl/d); and Singapore Refining Corporation (273,000 bbl/d). Singapore's oil storage capacity is 110.3 million barrels. -- Are there other facilities that are particularly vulnerable? A daily average of 10.3 million barrels of crude oil transit the Singapore and Malacca Straits. Maritime piracy attacks raise concerns that pirate tactics could be employed by terrorists to hijack an oil tanker in these waters. A sunken oil tanker in the Straits -- 1.5 miles wide at its most narrow point and 82 feet deep at its most shallow point -- theoretically could block a sea-lane that carries 50% of the world's crude oil trade. If the Malacca and Singapore Straits were impassable, ships would be forced to travel an additional 994 miles to reach their destinations, causing shipping rates worldwide to rise. Hardest hit would be the economies of China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, primary destinations for these energy shipments through the straits. Further, Singapore is the world's largest bunkering (ship refueling) port, so any interruption of that activity could have substantial effects on global shipping. FERGIN