SAO PAULO MAYOR SERRA'S SIX MONTH RECORD

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000920 SIPDIS NSC FOR SUE CRONIN DEPT ALSO FOR WHA/PD SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KCRM KIPR KDEM ECON PHUM BTIO EINV SOCI BR SUBJECT: SAO PAULO MAYOR SERRA'S SIX MONTH RECORD REF: A) Sao Paulo 21 B) Sao Paulo 289 C) Sao Paulo 475 D) Sao Paulo 499 E) Brasilia 1874 F) Brasilia 1867 G) Sao Paulo 200 H) Sao Paulo 281 I) Sao Paulo 418 J) Sao Paulo 419 K) Sao Paulo 848 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: At the conclusion of his first six months in office, Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra (Social Democratic Party of Brazil or PSDB) enjoys a more positive public evaluation than any of his 5 predecessors, yet reviews of his performance to date remain mixed. Of his 15 campaign promises made during his drive for the office, nine have not materialized, five are in process and one has been fulfilled. Serra argues that his lack of success in achieving his stated goals is largely due to the "administrative, financial, political and moral mess" that he inherited from his predecessor, Martha Suplicy of the Workers' Party (PT),and his priority has been to clean up that "mess." He has managed to increase the municipal coffers due to exacting collection of city fines. He is generally believed to be honest and competent, but lacks diplomatic flair when dealing with the public, and has not yet produced the large-scale public projects and works so popular with Sao Paulo citizens. Nevertheless, his popularity with the people of Sao Paulo is rising, according to recent polls. Furthermore, he enjoys a higher approval rating at this point of his tenure than any of his five predecessors. End Summary THE RECORD -------------- ¶2. (U) Folha, the major liberal news daily, recently reported that Serra's performance to date is mixed. Five programs are in "process," including construction of permanent buildings at schools that currently hold classes in metal trailers; improvement and increase in hours of the Unified Education Centers (CEUs),community-based education centers which were the brain child of his predecessor; and an exemption of electricity taxes for areas that do not receive public electricity service. Nine other programs have yet to see some "practical result" for the average Sao Paulo citizen. The Sao Paulo Mother program, which existed under the previous administration and provides pre- and post- natal care for expectant mothers and free public transportation passes for them, is currently under reorganization with plans for implementation in the second half of the year. The long-awaited "Unified Ticket" for all buses, subways and trains in the city is still undergoing a feasibility study, and will not likely go into effect until next year. (Note: Currently, passengers on public transport do not receive free transfers between the various forms of public transportation in the city. The "Unified Ticket" will be a considerable practical benefit for millions of Sao Paulo's working class. End Note) Another program still in the planning stages is the delivery of medicine by mail. Currently, registration of participants is underway, but delivery of medicine has not yet begun. Folha stated that the one campaign promise that has been "almost completed" is the resumption of 60 public work projects that were interrupted due to lack of funds. The contracts on 83 other works are currently under review. ¶3. (SBU) The clean-up of downtown Sao Paulo has received considerable press attention. Serra and Deputy Mayor for Central Sao Paulo Andrea Matarazzo are involved in a widespread crackdown on crime in the dangerous center of Sao Paulo. In recent months, post has reported on various aspects of the clean-up program. The city has sponsored public demolitions of pirated electronic goods, DVDs and CDs and numerous police raids on vendors who sell contraband goods in the center of the city (see Reftel C, D). The police have been involved in the crackdown on drug dealers, users and prostitutes in the area known as Cracolandia, or "Crack Land." Police authorities have reported to Pol offs that Serra is more cooperative in working with police on crackdowns than the former mayor, Marta Suplicy (see Reftel K). The Consulate enjoys better relations with the new administration, compared to those with the administration of Suplicy (see Reftel G). PUTTING THE HOUSE IN ORDER -------------- ¶4. (U) Serra claims that he has not been successful in fulfilling his campaign promises because he has been involved in the "clean up" of the financial, administrative, political and moral "mess" left by his predecessor, Marta Suplicy. Press reports state that Serra has spent four times more resources to payoff past administrations' debts than it has spent on new investments (See Reftel A),and claims that some of the city's major creditors will not receive payment until 2012. While Serra's detractors claim that the debt left by the previous administration has been exaggerated and the municipal auditors claim that all fiscal records from 2004 are in order, the Public Ministry is currently investigating the books of the Suplicy administration for over-spending. Due to an exacting system of fine collection, Serra's administration has collected five million Brazilian Reals in the first seven months of his tenure, compared to 800,000 Brazilian Reals collected by the administration of Suplicy in 2004. Fine collection includes penalties for speeding on motorways, business service taxes, penalties for illegal use of public space, and fines for restaurant/bar irregularities. New toll lanes on major beltways around the city will bring in revenue to the city's treasury. Serra's administration has already renegotiated the contracts of 12,000 city suppliers and cut 20 percent of city jobs, in an attempt to diminish nepotism. His finance minister stated, "Our plan is to cut expenses and increase revenue, but without raising costs to the population." Despite the fact that Serra has yet to institute all the reforms that he intended, the mayor's popularity appears to be increasing. POPULARITY ON THE RISE -------------- ¶5. (U) Serra has enjoyed an increase in popular opinion in the last few months. Datafolha, the Brazilian research institute, indicates that Serra's approval rating has improved since the last survey was taken by the agency in April 2005. In April, 57 percent of those surveyed who voted for Marta Suplicy (PT) in the mayoral race believed that Serra's administration to date was "bad/terrible." The more recent poll, however, indicated that only 36 percent of those who voted for Suplicy evaluated Serra's administration as "bad/terrible," a decrease of 21 points. And within this group, the number of those who now believe that Serra is doing a "great" job has doubled, from 6 percent to 12 percent of those surveyed. DOING BETTER THAN HIS PREDECESSORS -------------- ¶6. (U) Seven months into his mandate, Serra's approval rating ranks above that of five predecessors. 30 percent of those surveyed ranked him as doing a "great/good" job, while 23 percent of those surveyed stated that he was doing a "terrible/bad" job. At the eight-month mark, Marta Suplicy (PT) received a 20 percent "great/good" job rating, and a 35 percent "terrible/bad" rating. Her predecessor, Celso Pitta (Popular Party of Brazil),received a 19 percent ranking and a 36 per ranking, respectively, after 6 months in office. THE PRESIDENCY IN 2006? -------------- ¶7. (U) The recent political scandal in Brasilia has heightened the question of whether Serra will throw his hat into the ring in the campaign for President in 2006. Last week, Serra reportedly announced that a possible bid for the Presidency is not a "priority," but neither did he deny it as a possibility. Subsequently, he reiterated that he will not campaign for the Presidency. Datafolha reports that 67 percent of those surveyed stated that they did not believe that Serra should leave his post as Mayor to run for President in 2006. (Note: Serra has served just over six months of his four-year term as Mayor. End Note) According to press reports, political scientist Fernando Abrucio believes that if Serra leaves his current position to run for President, he will lose credibility with those who elected him and with members of his own PSDB party. He promised during his campaign that if elected he would remain in the mayoral seat for the duration of his term, and not leave it to seek higher office. During the campaign, the PT accused Serra of only seeking the office of Mayor of Sao Paulo as a stepping stone to the Presidency. If he resigns from his post to run for President, his Vice-Mayor, Gilberto Kassab, of the Liberal Front Party(PFL),would assume control over the city government. ¶8. (U) Recently, local media has emphasized Serra's criticism of Lula's administration. Referring to the monthly payments to Congressmen by the PT administration, the heart of the current scandal in Brasilia, Serra reportedly said that everyone has known about the payments since 2003. This is Serra's strongest attack on the PT and federal government since the crisis started. He is believed to have said that the progress made by the former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso's administration towards strengthening democratic institutions in Brazil has been pushed back towards "bygone sad years." ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Jose Serra enjoys a reputation as an honest, hardworking and competent politician. He has spent the first six months of his mayoral term in "putting the house in order," and it is generally believed that he has been successful in doing just that. He has not as yet, however, developed large, "flashy" public projects and programs, which the public generally greets with enthusiasm. Serra lacks the personal charisma and grace of his predecessor, Marta Suplicy (PT),and this deficiency has received some negative press coverage by the Sao Paulo media. Although he has not been able to institute all the programs and reforms promised during the campaign, his popularity among surveyed citizens appears to be increasing. Serra's efforts to curtail the system of political favors have made it difficult for him to get his programs approved by Sao Paulo's City Council, and he failed to get a political ally elected as president of the Council. Yet, it remains to be seen if Serra will keep his oft-stated word that he will not run for the Presidency and remain in the mayoral seat for the duration of his three and half year mandate, or if he will be again pulled into national politics. End Comment. WOLFE