DOMINICANS OUTLINE APPROACH TO HAITI, CAFTA, U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 08 SANTO DOMINGO 000971 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, WHA/USOAS, EB/TPP/BTA, EB/IFD/OMA; NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON;LABOR FOR ILAB; USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-LCARTER STATE PASS USTR FOR VARGO, RYCKMAN, MALITO, CRONIN USDOC FOR USPTO AND FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/16/2010 TAGS: PREL ETRD KIPR EFIN EPET CJAN PHUM PGOV DR HA CU MX XM SUBJECT: DOMINICANS OUTLINE APPROACH TO HAITI, CAFTA, U.S. RELATIONS, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ISSUES REF: A. OTTAWA 473 (NOTAL) ¶B. PORT AU PRINCE 387 (NOTAL) ¶C. SANTO DOMINGO 758 (NOTAL) Classified By: DCM Lisa Kubiske for Reason 1.5 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Haiti, bilateral relations with the United States, CAFTA ratification, promoting consensus on a new OAS secretary general, more active participation in regional and SIPDIS multilateral diplomacy, foreign investment and technology are priorities for the Dominican administration, according to officials who received WHA/CAR Director Brian Nichols on February 14-15. Foreign Minister Morales assured the Ambassador he would press for more regional support for the interim government in Haiti and would continue to promote the Flores candidacy for OAS secretary general at an upcoming CARICOM meeting in Suriname. The MFA outlined plans to increase the staff devoted to Haiti and to the United States, suggesting a periodic Dominican-U.S. commission to review bilateral issues. On Cuba, the MFA confirmed that Mexico had proposed an "informal consultation mechanism" on human rights in the hemisphere, but denied that the initiative would preclude country-specific resolutions in the UN Committee on Human Rights. Dominican Congressional leaders agreed to form a bicameral committee to accelerate the CAFTA ratification process. A lawyer for the pharmaceutical industry expressed concern about a new legislative proposal that, if passed, would weaken patent and trademark protection. Opposition politicians and commentators, whose parties control the Dominican Congress, criticized President Fernandez for promising more than he can deliver while his administration follows economic policies they perceive as dangerous. The legislators and a senior advisor to Fernandez say that because of the 2006 elections, Congress is unlikely to take on the fundamental fiscal reform agreed with the IMF. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Visiting WHA/CAR Director Brian Nichols met with Dominican Government, Congressional, opposition, and business leaders February 14-15, accompanied by the Ambassador and/or DCM and other Embassy officers. The Dominicans offered information of particular interest to the United States on this country's opposition political views, on prospects for ratification of the free trade agreement (CAFTA),on foreign policy priorities including Haiti, and on intellectual property rights (IPR) issues related to CAFTA. Haiti and the OAS - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Haiti, Liriano emphasized, occupies perhaps one-third of the Dominican bilateral agenda. Haiti's severe problems affect the Dominican Republic directly, and the Fernandez administration is moving from talk to action, with a cooperative attitude. Foreign Minister Carlos Morales Troncoso will attend a meeting of CARICOM foreign ministers in Suriname starting February 17. While there, he will call on CARICOM to endorse the candidacy of Salvadoran ex-president Flores for OAS secretary general and will urge the English-speaking Caribbean "not to leave Haiti alone at this moment," but to support electoral preparations and efforts to re-establish security in Haiti. The foreign minister is still planning to attend a French-sponsored donors' conference in Cayenne, French Guiana, on March 18 (Ref A),and President Fernandez plans to visit Haiti in March. Liriano told Nichols that Fernandez already has 5 or 6 persons advising him on Haiti and the MFA will soon expand its Haiti office to 4 or 5 officers, reflecting that country's importance to the Dominican Republic. This country wants a "permanent dialog" and "framework of cooperation" with Haiti and wants to offer Dominican "resources that could be used by Haiti" because of its proximity. ¶4. (C) Liriano privately confirmed to the DCM and Director Nichols that Dominican Ambassador to Haiti Jose Serulle Ramia (Ref B) had been brought to the Palace that day. She did not know the outcome of the meeting. The foreign minister later told the Ambassador that Serulle had been stripped of his authority, though not technically fired. For now and effective immediately, the MFA has asked its Haitian affairs director Inocencio Garcia to cover the Dominican ambassador's responsibilities in Haiti. Note: Serulle Ramia, we understand, was not fired because of President Fernandez's relationship with the local PLD chief in Santiago (another Serulle). End note. CAFTA Ratification - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (C) The Ambassador and WHA/CAR director Nichols discussed the timetable for CAFTA ratification with Dominican Senate President Andres Bautista and House President Alfredo Pacheco, both of the opposition PRD, and pointed out recent progress on ratification by other CAFTA signatories. After discussing local concerns and potential opportunities under CAFTA, Bautista commented that a bicameral committee could be convened to accelerate the legislative process. (Currently, the ratification bill is under consideration only in a Senate committee.) Pacheco described himself as "a believer in CAFTA" and agreed that, as soon as he received a formal proposal from Bautista, they would form the bicameral committee. Once that committee completes its work and issues a favorable opinion to both houses, the Senate and Chamber will be able to ratify in rapid succession. Bautista said he would send the letter "tomorrow" (February 16). (As of February 16, Senate Industry and Trade Committee chairman Santos confirmed to us that his committee was planning hearings and studies on CAFTA until early April. Bautista and Pacheco confirmed to Nichols and to the Ambassador that they have the authority to redirect the process as they explained.) ¶6. (C) President of the Free Trade Zone Association (ADOZONA) Arturo Peguero warned that CAFTA will not be ratified until after the Dominican Government grants tax breaks to the sugar industry and other sectors. Technical Secretary of the Presidency Temistocles Montas, Customs SIPDIS Director Miguel Cocco, and Secretary of Finance officials committed to these compensatory measures in December as a condition for the Senate's repeal of the 25 percent tax on corn syrup-sweetened beverages, he said. Hugo Rivera Santana, a Secretariat of Industry and Commerce official tasked with implementing CAFTA following ratification, described a clear division of labor on trade issues in the Fernandez administration: the Foreign Ministry has responsibility for trade negotiations and the Secretariat of Industry and Trade is in charge of implementation and administration of trade agreements once ratified. Following CAFTA ratification, his office will become a council for CAFTA implementation, including other relevant agencies and private sector groups. ¶7. (C) In a later meeting Secretary of the Presidency Danilo Medina said that the government would have to compensate for lost revenues as tariffs are eliminated during CAFTA implementation. He did not identify the manner of this compensation, but added that "it had been agreed" that no fiscal reform legislation would be considered before the May 2006 congressional elections, owing to candidates' vulnerability on this sensitive issue. United States - - - - - - - ¶8. (C) The Dominican Republic wants to undertake "a series of activities" with the United States, according to Liriano, and the MFA plans to expand the U.S. affairs office from one senior officer currently to 4 or 5 officials (U.S. desk chief Roger Espaillat introduced Embassy officers to his newly assigned assistant on February 11). Substantively, both Liriano and, separately, senior presidential political advisor Danilo Medina told WHA/CAR Director Nichols that Santo Domingo wants to intensify the bilateral dialogue on security issues. This includes strengthening internal law enforcement (for example through expert visits from local U.S. police departments),border security, immigration issues, counter-narcotics, and counter-terrorism. Liriano highlighted the need to coordinate the nation's foreign and defense policies, traditionally separate, and proposed that Fernandez's NGO "Global Foundation for Democracy and Development" (www.funglode.org) host a conference on Third Border issues including security. Caribbean affairs director Danilo Clime, in a side conversation, proposed hosting a Dominican-U.S. conference on military and security issues. ¶9. (C) Medina raised two immigration issues. He asserted that U.S. deportations of Dominican citizens who have been convicted of crimes and served prison sentences in the United States are aggravating a rise in criminal activity here, because the returning deportees bring with them patterns of criminal behavior learned abroad. He said a bilateral agreement is needed to regulate such deportations. The DCM replied that available evidence does not support the belief that these deportees significantly contribute to the crime wave. Medina also complained about U.S. deportations of illegal immigrants, when apprehended for minor legal infractions, "breaking up families" and leaving U.S. citizen children without guardians in the United States. Nichols replied that these deportations are required under U.S. law and that the large, concentrated Dominican-American community should be able to provide alternate living arrangements for the children. Cuba - - - ¶10. (C) WHA/CAR director Nichols and the DCM reiterated to Liriano our demarche (Ref C) about the Mexican proposal to establish an "informal consultation mechanism" on human rights in the hemisphere, in the context of GRULAC and the UN Committee on Human Rights (CHR). Liriano commented that the Mexicans, in their meeting with GRULAC representatives in January, had kept their presentation "very general," had not referred to specific countries, and had not proposed any restrictions on country-specific resolutions. She said such restrictions would "put a straitjacket" on CHR proceedings, given the wide divergence of views among member states. She understood that the Mexican-proposed consultations did not imply any requirement for GRULAC states to vote as a regional bloc in the CHR. The Cubans at the GRULAC meeting had expressed particular concern that their country might be targeted in this year's annual meeting, she said. The DCM expressed our appreciation for the Dominican Republic's decisive vote on Cuba in the CHR last year; Liriano noted that "the Cubans almost killed us" for casting that vote and continue to show resentment. Foreign Policy Priorities - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Alejandra Liriano outlined the Fernandez administration's priorities in foreign policy: -- Active role: The Dominican Republic will participate actively in regional international organizations, bringing positions based on Dominican interests to meetings of those organizations. Santo Domingo has proposed hosting the 2006 OAS General Assembly, in part to continue regional attention to Haiti. It will seek closer ties with the Central America and the English-speaking Caribbean. -- Multilateralism: The Dominican Republic will look to harmonize and sometimes to build consensus positions within multilateral organizations and will take action every time there is an issue that affects it. This means playing a more active regional role, seeking closer ties with the English-speaking Caribbean, and helping achieve consensus in multilateral organizations on issues of interest, -- Key countries: The Dominican Republic will focus on its two most important bilateral relationships, those with the United States and Haiti. At the same time, it will reach out beyond the region, exchanging ambassadors with India and South Africa and arranging a presidential visit to Japan in March. -- Investment and technology: Fernandez will seek to use these diplomatic relationships and contacts with businesses abroad to bring more foreign investment and information technology to the Dominican Republic. -- Energy: To supplement the agreement last year with Venezuela on petroleum supplies and financing, the Dominican Republic is trying to reach other agreements with Qatar, Colombia, and Brazil. -- Bilateral commissions: The Dominican Republic is proposing annual bilateral commissions (with the United States, Haiti, Colombia, and Spain, initially) to meet alternately in the participating countries. The MFA wants to set up regular formal exchanges between the Ministry and each overseas embassy to discuss the full range of bilateral issues, possibly at sub-secretary level, every 3-6 months. -- Institution-building: The Dominican Foreign Service is weak as an institution. The government wants to build a permanent career foreign service to serve the country rather than the personal interests of any president, to improve computer-based diplomatic communications, and to assign to embassies only the right number of qualified employees. The Trujillo-era foreign service law needs an overhaul. -- February 27 speech: The president will address foreign policy in his state-of-the-nation speech to Congress on February 27; Foreign Minister Carlos Morales Troncoso will provide ideas to the text the president is drafting. IPR Issues - - - - - - ¶12. (U) A prominent local patent attorney whose clients include international pharmaceutical manufacturers told WHA/CAR director Nichols and Embassy officers that she had recently learned of newly proposed legislation to modify the law related to protection of industrial property (patents and trademarks). The new draft legislation is slightly different from a similar bill that has been under consideration by the lower house of Congress for several months, which the Embassy raised with House President Pacheco because it proposed lowering penalties for violators of patents and trademarks. The revised proposal allows prison sentences in cases of trademark violations, but not for patent, infringements. The attorney warned that if the proposal becomes law, convicted patent infringers will not only avoid serving jail time but will be able to pay a fine and avoid appearing in court entirely. This is in keeping with the new criminal procedures code implemented in 2004, which specifies that crimes that do not carry a prison sentence allow payment of a fine in lieu of a court appearance. The attorney expects the legislative proposal to be submitted to Congress soon. Opposition Critique of Economic Policy - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶13. (SBU) Politicians from the opposition, an economist and a journalist sketched for WHA/CAR Director Nichols their concern that the Fernandez administration is overreaching, promising the Dominican public far more than it can actually deliver. None of those present was willing to predict that Congress would pass fundamental fiscal reforms mentioned in the IMF standby. With congressional election campaigning less than a year away, few in Congress would be willing to take the blame for increasing or significantly revising taxes. (Later, presidential political advisor Danilo Medina expressed the same concern.) Senator Santos acknowledged that ratification of CAFTA and its entry into force would be forcing events, depriving the government of important sources of revenue. ¶14. (SBU) Economist Jaime Aristy Escuder, closely associated with the Mejia administration but before that an advisor to Fernandez, said that by targeting the exchange rate, the administration is putting national finances in a "delicate and very dangerous" position. Central Bank (CB) Governor Hector Valdez Albizu has aggressively increased the placements of CB certificates. Since January 1, said Aristy, the CB has increased its net holdings by 9 billion pesos (US$ 300 million),while rolling over 5 billion pesos in certificates reaching their term. Limiting peso liquidity has succeeded in keeping the dollar exchange rate below 30 to the dollar. IMF projections for 2005 were made at an estimated exchange rate of 37; Aristy says that the peso should be trading at about 42 to the dollar to keep Dominican enterprises competitive. Recent announcements by free-zone apparel manufacturers of 6,000 or more layoffs in the central Santiago/Cibao area are only the first signs of the downside of the policy. Aristy stresses that many, perhaps most, of the apparel workers are female heads of household. When they lose their jobs, they and their children fall immediately into conditions of extreme poverty. The hotel sector is under pressure as well, given the fall of the dollar from 42 to less than 30. ¶15. (SBU) Aristy sees the Central Bank tactic as unsustainable over the long term. He says that if continued it will mean that the CB will eventually have to refuse to honor its obligations, as happened in Argentina, or it will resort to the printing press and unrestrained inflation. ¶16. (SBU) Before the meeting, Aristy had been withering in his criticism of the Metro project touted by Fernandez advisor Diandino Pena. Aristy sees the murky arrangements as dangerous, since any financing provided to the Dominican Republic at 4 to 5 percent per annum would necessarily be offset by very high prices for materials furnished. Aristy believes that a deal has already been cooked up with the Brazilian Export Credit Agency for the sale of equipment from factories owned by France,s Alsthom. In his view, Pena is in a hurry to get approval of the deal before Congress is obliged by the IMF standby and the terms of the free trade agreement to pass legislation requiring open solicitations for government purchases. Pena,s price tag of only USD 326 million for the first Metro line and his completion date of three years are ridiculous, in Aristy,s view, and if pursued will leave Fernndez with little more than "a big hole in the ground" at the end of his term in 2008. Opposition Political and Press Issues - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶17. (SBU) Acting President of the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD) Tony Raful said that Fernandez,s electoral triumph of 57 percent, unmatched in Dominican history, was more a rejection of Hipolito Mejia,s economic mismanagement than an endorsement of Fernandez. The PRD is returning to its base, restructuring, and hoping to overcome differences so as to retain an important presence after the 2006 congressional elections. Senator Alejandro Santos of the PRD and "Reformista" congressional representatives Ito Bisono and Marino Collante of the late president Balaguer's Social Christian Reformist Party (PRSC) stressed that the opposition-controlled Congress had cooperated so far with the Fernandez administration to raise taxes and pass a budget consistent with IMF requirements. Congress revised that budget so as to provide more funding to education and health. ¶18. (SBU) The Reformistas said their party is undergoing reorganization as well. Collante predicted that senior PRSC leaders such as Foreign Minister (and former vice president) Carlos Morales Troncoso who had bolted the party to support Fernandez would be excluded. ¶19. (U) Independent on-line journalist Fausto Adames recounted his discontent with the suppression of investigative reporting by owners of newspapers, all of them closely associated with banks and political interests. He and other fired journalists have founded the on-line daily www.clavedigital.com. Adames appealed to politicians to place the national interest above partisan beggar-thy-neighbor politics. Economist Aristy said daily newspaper "Listin Diario" had lost all objectivity and had arbitrarily ended his weekly column, which had run for years. ¶20. (U) This cable was cleared by WHA/CAR director Brian Nichols. ¶21. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted on our classified SIPRNET site http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ along with extensive other material. HERTELL