DOMINICAN POLITICS #31: POSITIONING TO RATIFY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 003369 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR WHA, WHA/CAR, INR, EB/TPP/BTA/EWH; DEPT PASS USTR FOR R VARGO, A MALITO; NSC FOR SHANNON; \ USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD;TREASURY FOR OASIA-MAUREEN WAFER; USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ETRD PREL DR CAFTA SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS #31: POSITIONING TO RATIFY CAFTA REF: SANTO DOMINGO 3199 ¶1. (SBU) This is #31 in our series of political reports on Leonel Fernandez's first year in office. Positioning to Ratify CAFTA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The question is no longer whether the Dominicans will ratify the free trade agreement, but when -- whether they can manage to do so while the U.S. Congress is considering the implementating legislation or whether domestic busines sectors will succeed in efforts to get the administration and Congress to enact "pro-competitive" adjustments at the same time, a process that will inevitably be lengthy. Inside the Tent - - - - - - - - - On June 22 President Fernandez formally received sectoral representatives at a closed-door session at the palace to discuss their desires in connection with ratification of the free trade agreement with the United States and Central America, as agreed in last week's meeting prompted by the Ambassador (reftel). The session was organized and chaired by National Dialogue mediator Msgr Agripino Nunez and included in addition to the President his senior policy advisors -- chief of staff Danilo Medina, Commerce Minister Javier Garcia, Finance Minister Vicente Bengoa, Agriculture Minister Amilcar Romero, economic advisor Julio Ortega, and ambassador to the United States Flavio Dario Espinal. The organizers had reserved a seat for the Ambassador, with a name card prominent in front of it; however, Msgr Nunez had not asked the Ambassador to attend this all-Dominican discussion and the Ambassador would have declined, had he done so. An Insider's Account - - - - - - - - - - Just hours after the conclusion of the four-hour event, Ambassador to the United States Espinal came to the Embassy at the Ambassador's invitation. Espinal said he had explained the U.S. ratification process and likely timetable. President Fernndez in two interventions said clearly that the Dominican national interest requires ratification of CAFTA &without playing games.8 Each of the interest groups ) the National Council of �A;Private Enterprise (CONEP),agroindustry, free-zone manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and unions -- briefed on its own desires. The palace later commented that there had been 21 presentations. Fernandez agreed to name a &mini-commission8 from his economic team, to work with private sector groups and legislators after -- note, AFTER -- ratification to see whether measures to promote competitiveness might be identified within the constraints of the IMF standby and the already approved 2005 budget. He said that measures would probably have to wait for the 2006 budget and cautioned that not everything the private sector was requesting would be feasible. Secretary of Industry and Commerce Javier Garca also spoke SIPDIS out strongly in favor of ratification. Finance Secretary Vicente Bengoa said CAFTA would expand Dominican firms, opportunities for markets and investments. Senate president Bautista called for prompt CAFTA ratification. However, neither he nor House of Representatives president Pacheco responded to Fernndez,s caveats eitther positively or negatively, so Espinal was uncertain of their attitude. The Public Story - - - - - - - - - - - - According to the press, presidential chief of staff Danilo Medina told the press that participants in the meeting had been &unanimous8 in supporting CAFTA ratification: "All the sectors present spoke of the need to ratify th treaty, although some sectors presented conditions that they consider should be recongized as compensatory measures allowing them to survive and to compete adequately with the CAFTA countries we are joing." Medina said that Fernandez had heard out the presentations and had left in the hands of the Economic Cabinet the duty of studying the measures, quantifying them and putting numbers on them. "What was clearly understood by all was that the Treaty would be examined as quickly as possible by Congress." Bautista, speaking next, emphasized that no one was opposing approval of CAFTA but added, "Once this adjustment is successful, it will be adopted as quickly as possible." His qualification -- adjustment first, ratification afterwards -- put a big question mark on the understanding on quick ratification previously reached with the Ambassador (reftel). An 8 Percent Solution? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Journalists learned fairly quickly that CONEP President Elena Viyella had suggested a specific offset to the fiscal adjustments necessary to meet requirements of CAFTA (tariff reductions) and the WTO (elimination of the exchange commission). She reportedly suggested continuation of the current 16 percent value-added tax, which applies to approximately 40 percent of goods, and application of an 8 percent value-added tax to items not currently taxed. There has been a fine dust-up as unions and other putative consumer representatives have countered through the press with calls for the tax authorities to crack down on business tax evasion, instead. Meeting the House Finance Committee on June 23, Finance Minister Bengoa estimated that for 2006 tariff reductions could cost the budget 2.6 billion pesos (USD 90 million) and eliminatation of the exchange commission would cost another 21 billion (USD 725 million). "We agreed with the IMF that we would provide a draft for fiscal adjustment by September, but if CAFTA is ratified we might have to accelerate the process." Putting Forth the Message - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - In contrast to Fernandez's dilatory approach to CAFTA through much of 2005, the presidential press and public relations apparatus has now embraced the pro-CAFTA message. Presidential press spokesman Rafael Nunez called the Wednesday meeting "transcendental" and stressed that Fernandez's intention was "not to provide compensation or protection but rather to find the adjustments necessary so that the economy could take advantage of the opportunities." He promised that the process will be transparent. To conclude, we can offer an example of the palace spin on CAFTA, witnessed by the DCM when she accepted the invitation of the Embassy FSN personnel specialist to attend a meeting of the national association of personnel managers. Vice President Rafael Albuquerque was the keynote speaker and spent almost all of his palace-drafted speech discussing CAFTA. The DCM was the only foreigner in the room as the Vice President,himself a former minister of labor, spoke to an audience of some 75 human resource managers from leading Dominican firms. His remarks were very positive on CAFTA while still acknowledging the challenge ahead for Dominican business. Not only did the Vice President suggest that CAFTA would add jobs to the economy, he expressed the view that CAFTA would not lower labor standards (Albuquerque, a professor of labor law, was one of the authors of the 1992 revision of the Labor Code). Putting CAFTA in the context of President Fernandez,s strategy of economic recovery and growth, the VP made support for CAFTA a Dominican idea, not something being imposed by any outsiders. The Rationale of the VP and the Palace, especially on Labor - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - In summary, Albuquerque described CAFTA as one component of the government strategy for economic recovery. The government had already managed to stabilize the exchange rate, lower inflation, decrease public spending, and increase domestic confidence and credibility in the eyes of the international community. The government had exceeded IMF fiscalgoals and international expectations. The Dominican Republic still had to become more globally competitive, he stressed. CAFTA would help industry do that by lowering the cost of inputs and bringing in know-how. It would attract investment, create jobs, and ultimately sustainable growth. Taking advantage of the opportunities presented by CAFTA would require a government-private sector response - - the government to create conditions of legal stability and a good business climate, and the private sector to create new business and growth. Businesses would have to be creative, ready to make changes, and to become increasingly competitive. Albuquerque said on behalf of President Fernandez, that he was giving an "absolute assurance" that the Government of the Dominican Republic is working to reduce barriers to competitiveness. Globalization has its pros and cons, but what is important, Albuquerque continued, was that globalization is a fact. The Dominican Republic has to make sure it made the most of globalization,s benefits and minimize the impact of the negatives. The Caribbean Basin Initiative was likely to end by 2008 and the Dominican Republic could not afford to be isolated. Concerning labor, the Dominican Republic is very well positioned, Albuquerque said. It had ratified 8 fundamental conventions of the International Labor Organization, and Dominican labor laws are fully consistent with these and with CAFTA. He knew that U.S. labor had spoken out against CAFTA and that some Central American unions had as well, but, "speaking as an expert," he said, "the Dominican Republic has made a lot of progress and we have little to fear from signing CAFTA." He noted that in his 4 years as Labor Secretary 1996-2000, there had been only one case brought regarding child labor. He noted that the ILO will monitor labor law implementation in CAFTA countries. Albuquerque additionally noted that there is no forced labor in the Dominican Republic and that Dominican labor law applies to all who work in the country, even undocumented aliens, regardless of sex, race, origin, national background, or nationality. He assured the audience that the government is working hard to fight the worst forms of child labor, trying to get children out of agriculture. In this regard, he pointed to agreements between the labor secretariat and tomato processors against buying tomatoes from producers who use child labor and against giving loans to such producers. There was no serious child labor problem in industry, he said. Albuquerque reiterated that the Dominican Supreme Court has affirmed that CAFTA will be treated as a national law, and in case of a conflict, CAFTA undertakings will take precedence over other national laws because of their status as international treaty commitments. Overall, he concluded, CAFTA has many more benefits than negative points. The Dominican Republic can grow, reduce poverty, and reduce currently high) unemployment. CAFTA, Alburquerque said, is "indispensable" for the country. The country, in turn, was well prepared to take on the challenge of CAFTA. Working together as government and the private sector, he concluded, "we can move forward." ("E, p,alante que vamos" - - the administration,s electoral campaign slogan). ¶2. (U) Drafted by Lisa Kubiske, Michael Meigs, and Bain Cowell. ¶3. (U) This piece and others in the series can be found on our SIPRNET website http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ along with extensive other material. ¶2. (U) Drafted by Lisa Kubiske, Michael Meigs, Bain Cowell. ¶3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted at our SIPRNET site http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/ along with extensive other material. HERTELL