EVE OF CHILE'S ELECTIONS: NO PRESIDENTIAL WINNER

UNCLAS SANTIAGO 002485 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV CI SUBJECT: EVE OF CHILE'S ELECTIONS: NO PRESIDENTIAL WINNER LIKELY IN FIRST ROUND REF: A. SANTIAGO 2368 AND PREVIOUS ¶B. SANTIAGO 2447 ¶1. Summary: Two days before the elections, Concertacion presidential candidate Michelle Bachelet leads the polls to succeed Ricardo Lagos as Chile's next president, but there is only a small chance she will win the more than 50 percent of the vote necessary for a first round victory. With a January 15 run-off election likely, the main question on most Chileans' minds is who will be Bachelet's opponent in the run-off election: National Renewal's (RN) Sebastian Pinera, or the Independent Democratic Union's (UDI) Joaquin Lavin. A number of the congressional races remain close, with the center-left Concertacion hoping for a working majority in both houses and the Alianza opposition fighting hard to pull even. The official campaign season has ended. Polls are scheduled to open early on Sunday, December 11, with preliminary results in the presidential race possibly available as early as 1700 local time (1500 EST). End summary. Run-off Election: All but Certain -------------- ¶2. The December 11 presidential elections will be Chile's fourth since the end of the Pinochet era in 1989. The previous three were judged free and fair, and there is no reason to expect otherwise for this one. To date, there have been no notable allegations of corruption, campaign irregularities, or external influence -- other than half-humorous reports that Argentine First Lady Fernandez de Kirchner would accompany Bachelet on the campaign trail this week, an event that did not materialize. ¶3. According to the latest polls, Concertacion candidate Michelle Bachelet remains the front-runner at around 40 percent, with RN's Sebastian Pinera and UDI's Joaquin Lavin each around 20 percent (ref a). With none of the candidates expected to win more than 50 percent of the vote, a January 15 run-off election between the top two vote-getters is all but certain. UDI and RN recently reiterated their campaign pledge to unite forces behind the candidate who moves on to the second round, a pledge most observers consider essential for either Pinera or Lavin to have a shot at defeating Bachelet. ¶4. Chileans also will be voting for 20 of the elected 38 Senators, and all 120 of the members of the Chamber of Deputies (ref b). While the Concertacion coalition is looking to possibly increase its slight majority in both houses, the Alianza opposition is hoping to win a few of the many contested seats to be able to force tie votes in both houses. Campaign Period Over -------------- ¶5. As of December 9, no more campaign advertising is allowed. Polls are scheduled to open at 0700 on December 11 and close at approximately 1700. Using the last presidential elections (1999) as a guide, preliminary results -- including whether a run-off will be necessary -- may be announced by late afternoon, especially if voters turn out early. In the case of the congressional races, initial results may not be available until later. KELLY