C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 002368

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI EAID CI PE
SUBJECT: CHILE'S ELECTIONS: FINAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
UNEVENTFUL; MOST RECENT POLL SHOWS BACHELET SLIPPING

REF: SANTIAGO 2323 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Emi L. Yamauchi. Reasons: 1.4 (
b and d).


1. (C) Summary: Chile's four presidential candidates
participated in an uneventful and final televised debate on
November 17, one day after the release of a poll showing that
support for Concertacion candidate and front-runner Michelle
Bachelet has dropped below 40 percent. National Renewal (RN)
candidate Sebastian Pinera's stock continues to rise as he
surpassed Independent Democratic Union's (UDI) Joaquin Lavin
in the polls for the first time. While Bachelet continues to
out-poll the others, she is unlikely to win more than 50
percent of the vote during the election on December 11. With
a run-off now likely, the question on most Chileans' minds is
whether Pinera or Lavin will be Bachelet's opponent on
January 15, and whether the combined votes from the Right
will be enough to win. End summary.

The Final Debate
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2. (U) The second and final nationally-televised presidential
debate on November 17 was largely uneventful and (at least in
the aftermath) appears to have had little impact on voters'
minds. According to a telephonic Benchmark poll following
the debate, only nine percent of the 400-plus individuals
polled in the greater Santiago area said they had changed
their minds after watching the debate. Most observers agreed
there were no winners or losers. Concertacion's Bachelet
defended the Lagos Administration's policies and promised
more of the same, while the RN's Pinera and UDI's Lavin each
tried to portray himself as the candidate who is most capable
of uniting the right and defeating Bachelet in a second
round. The four candidates offered largely canned, safe and
(with the exception of "Together We Can" candidate Hirsch)
similar responses to eight questions, two of which touched on
international issues (Peru and free trade agreements) and six
on domestic issues (e.g. inequality, unemployment, same-sex
marriage).

The Poll
--------------


3. (U) The final debate took place one day after Chile's
respected Center of Public Studies (CEP) released the results
of its third nationwide poll on the elections. Its results,
mostly tracking with those contained in a recent "El
Mercurio" poll (reftel), support three general trends:
support for Bachelet has dropped; support for Pinera has
increased; and support for Lavin has declined. The poll also
contained two firsts: Pinera surpassing Lavin as the top
vote-getter on the Right (23 to 18 percent), and the combined
vote of the candidates on the Right (41 percent) eclipsing
that of Bachelet (39 percent).

Comment
--------------


4. (C) The results of the latest CEP poll reaffirm Embassy's
view that Bachelet is likely to win less than 50 percent on
December 11 and a run-off election of the top two vote
getters on January 15 will be required. If Pinera's stock
continues to rise and he moves on to a second round against
Bachelet, his ability to challenge Bachelet for some centrist
Christian Democrat voters could make for an interesting
run-off, but only if UDI throws its support to him.
KELLY