CHILE'S ELECTIONS: FINAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SANTIAGO 002368 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI EAID CI PE SUBJECT: CHILE'S ELECTIONS: FINAL PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE UNEVENTFUL; MOST RECENT POLL SHOWS BACHELET SLIPPING REF: SANTIAGO 2323 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Emi L. Yamauchi. Reasons: 1.4 ( b and d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Chile's four presidential candidates participated in an uneventful and final televised debate on November 17, one day after the release of a poll showing that support for Concertacion candidate and front-runner Michelle Bachelet has dropped below 40 percent. National Renewal (RN) candidate Sebastian Pinera's stock continues to rise as he surpassed Independent Democratic Union's (UDI) Joaquin Lavin in the polls for the first time. While Bachelet continues to out-poll the others, she is unlikely to win more than 50 percent of the vote during the election on December 11. With a run-off now likely, the question on most Chileans' minds is whether Pinera or Lavin will be Bachelet's opponent on January 15, and whether the combined votes from the Right will be enough to win. End summary. The Final Debate -------------- ¶2. (U) The second and final nationally-televised presidential debate on November 17 was largely uneventful and (at least in the aftermath) appears to have had little impact on voters' minds. According to a telephonic Benchmark poll following the debate, only nine percent of the 400-plus individuals polled in the greater Santiago area said they had changed their minds after watching the debate. Most observers agreed there were no winners or losers. Concertacion's Bachelet defended the Lagos Administration's policies and promised more of the same, while the RN's Pinera and UDI's Lavin each tried to portray himself as the candidate who is most capable of uniting the right and defeating Bachelet in a second round. The four candidates offered largely canned, safe and (with the exception of "Together We Can" candidate Hirsch) similar responses to eight questions, two of which touched on international issues (Peru and free trade agreements) and six on domestic issues (e.g. inequality, unemployment, same-sex marriage). The Poll -------------- ¶3. (U) The final debate took place one day after Chile's respected Center of Public Studies (CEP) released the results of its third nationwide poll on the elections. Its results, mostly tracking with those contained in a recent "El Mercurio" poll (reftel),support three general trends: support for Bachelet has dropped; support for Pinera has increased; and support for Lavin has declined. The poll also contained two firsts: Pinera surpassing Lavin as the top vote-getter on the Right (23 to 18 percent),and the combined vote of the candidates on the Right (41 percent) eclipsing that of Bachelet (39 percent). Comment -------------- ¶4. (C) The results of the latest CEP poll reaffirm Embassy's view that Bachelet is likely to win less than 50 percent on December 11 and a run-off election of the top two vote getters on January 15 will be required. If Pinera's stock continues to rise and he moves on to a second round against Bachelet, his ability to challenge Bachelet for some centrist Christian Democrat voters could make for an interesting run-off, but only if UDI throws its support to him. KELLY