EL SALVADORS'S EVOLVING FOREIGN POLICY - ARAB

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SAN SALVADOR 002126 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV IS MO QA BA ES UNGA SUBJECT: EL SALVADORS'S EVOLVING FOREIGN POLICY - ARAB ALLIES REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 553 ¶B. SAN SALVADOR 723 ¶C. 2004 SAN SALVADOR 3103 ¶D. 2004 SAN SALVADOR 795 ¶E. SAN SALVADOR 1983 Classified By: A/DCM Mark Silverman, Reason 1.4 (b). ¶1. (C) Summary: Following a July 20 visit by Morocco's Health Minister, leading daily "La Prensa Grafica" led July 25 with a 3-page spread detailing El Salvador's evolving political strategy and rapprochement with the Middle East. The article discussed El Salvador's hopes of gaining an ECOSOC, or even a non-permanent UNSC seat, and echoed Embassy reporting from January (Ref A) that, in 2004, El Salvador supported additional anti-Israeli resolutions at the UNGA. The article also provided a historical backdrop to current GOES efforts to gain favor with countries such as Qatar and Morocco. ¶2. (C) As noted in reftels, the GOES is adopting a more "practical" foreign policy and is leveraging what little political weight it has on Middle-East issues (Ref A),on China/Taiwan recognition (Refs B,C),and even on votes that the U.S. once took for granted, such as the annual UNGA Cuban human rights resolution (Ref D). El Salvador's more nuanced foreign policy and political calculus may affect Salvadoran positions in the lead-up to, and plenary of, the 60th UNGA - including on such critical topics as UNSC enlargement, though, as noted in Ref E, El Salvador is not likely to support the G-4 proposal on UNSC reform. End Summary. UN VOTE PACT WITH MOROCCO -------------- ¶3. (SBU) A full-page article in the leading daily, "La Prensa Grafica", noted the July 20 visit of the Moroccan Health Minister, and quoted FM Lainez as stating that El Salvador is changing its diplomatic strategy by reaching out to non-traditional allies such as Morocco and Qatar. The article detailed a vote swap: Salvadoran support for Morocco's candidate to the International Court of Justice, in exchange for Moroccan support for El Salvador's bid to gain an ECOSOC seat. The story referred to the December 2003 visit to Morocco by then-FM Maria Eugenia Brizuela de Avila as the starting point of the current relationship, and detailed official communications discussing the vote swap. ¶4. (SBU) The article also discussed other bilaterals with NEA leaders, such as Saca's September 2004 visit with Qatar's Emir in New York and Vice President de Escobar's June 2005 visit to Qatar. Additionally, the article said that reaching out to the Middle East began under former President Flores, who in 1999-2000 established diplomatic relations with Bahrain and Qatar and that, as part of this turning point, then-FM Brizuela de Avila made a November 2001 speech before the UNGA defending the Palestinian right to self-determination. UNSC REFORM and THE ANTI-ISRAELI VOTES -------------- ¶5. (C) An adjoining full-page article noted El Salvador's ambition to secure not only an ECOSOC seat, but also a non-permanent UNSC seat. In an over-simplified manner, the article outlined UNSC reform possibilities as the U.S. position of maintaining the status-quo, versus the "EU/Japan/Brazil" position of increasing the number of permanent seats. The article transitioned into a discussion of, and, eventually, a separate full-page article describing El Salvador's vote shifts on Israel/Palestinian resolutions at the 59th UNGA, and implicitly inferred that this was a strategy to distance itself somewhat from US/Israel policy and to increase NEA support for El Salvador's participation in UN bodies. (Note: Ref B reported on El Salvador's ideological retreat on Israel at the UN and the emerging "practical" approach of the Saca administration, and commented that El Salvador is trying to show some "independence" at the lowest possible cost to the all-important bilateral relationship with the U.S. End Note.) (Comment: As post outlined in Ref E, El Salvador is not likely to support the current G-4 UNSC expansion proposal. End Comment.) ¶6. (SBU) The pair of articles described how El Salvador changed its vote on A/RES/59/123 - "Israeli Settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory", and noted that El Salvador voted in favor of many pro-Palestinian resolutions. (Note: Ref B highlights six "anti-Israeli" resolutions that El Salvador abstained on at the 58th, but supported at the 59th UNGA. End note.) The articles discount the possible fallout with Israel, and quote Israeli Ambassador to El Salvador Jonathan Peled as stating that El Salvador's voting will not affect the bilateral relationship, and that El Salvador, like any independent country, at times votes more in favor of Israel, and at times less. INTERVIEW WITH FM LAINEZ -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Part of the coverage was a four-question interview with FM Lainez. Lainez was quoted as stating, "foreign policy is dynamic and evolutionary, and El Salvador must find its place within the new globalized world, and to do so you can see El Salvador is taking new postures with respect to various policies, not just the Near East." In response to questions on whether El Salvador had changed from its predictable past voting on Arab-Israeli policy issues, and what risk this might imply regarding traditional allies, Lainez stated that the government's decisions have been the "fruit" of an analysis of the issues, that each decision is discussed with the involved parties, and that El Salvador has always tried to take rational and principled votes. COMMENT -------------- ¶8. (C) Comment. While the articles trace this evolving diplomatic strategy back to the Flores Administration, Embassy has noted significant changes under the Saca Administration. This could be in part due to the transaction-oriented business backgrounds of both Saca and FM Lainez and their willingness to look at strategy through that optic and depart from the status-quo. Additionally, the Salvadoran Ambassador to the UN, Carmen Gallardo, is thought to be more oriented toward the European Union, and is also likely an advocate of a revised Salvadoran foreign policy. As reftels have noted, however, the bilateral relationship with the U.S. is all-important; this fact limits major departure from long-time support of key U.S. foreign policy priorities. This said, El Salvador's continued deployment in Iraq has allowed the GOES to secure political capital with the U.S., and small exercises of independence and leveraging, such as changing posture on anti-Israeli votes, or even supporting UN reforms that are not the first choice of the U.S., can be expected from time to time. ¶9. (C) As noted in Ref D, El Salvador is not in favor of, and has stated concern with, the G-4 UNCS enlargement proposal, particularly in that Brazil would be allotted a permanent seat. Despite GOES "concern" and recurring statements that UN reform should be carried out in an integral way, El Salvador has still not firmly committed to voting against the G-4 proposal. Interlocutors continue to tell Emboffs that El Salvador is waiting to see all of the proposals to develop a firm stance. End Comment. Barclay