CAFTA SUPPORTERS RALLY FOR LEGISLATIVE APPROVAL

UNCLAS SAN JOSE 002727 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN JASON MACK E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ETRD ELAB CS SUBJECT: CAFTA SUPPORTERS RALLY FOR LEGISLATIVE APPROVAL REF: SAN JOSE 2689 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. Several thousand workers, business owners and merchants marched on Costa Rica's Legislative Assembly on November 24, to encourage the GOCR to ratify without further delay the U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR). The march was widely seen as a rebuttal to last week's anti-CAFTA-DR protest organized by union and student leaders (see reftel). In head-to-head terms, the pro-CAFTA-DR drew a larger crowd, but ultimately may have played into the hands of anti-CAFTA-DR leaders who have long promised to initiate a "referendum on the streets." End summary. ¶2. On November 24, several thousand pro-CAFTA-DR marchers joined business and trade leaders on the streets of San Jose to encourage swift legislative approval of the trade agreement. The rally on the 24th was widely portrayed as a rebuttal to the large anti-CAFTA-DR demonstration held on November 17. Using its now-familiar graphical analysis of protester density per square meter, the influential daily newspaper La Nacion estimated that 20,500 people participated in the pro-CAFTA-DR rally. While estimates from other sources varied, La Nacion's estimate was significantly higher than their own calculation of 16,000 participants in last week's demonstration. Fortunately, both events were peaceful and carried out with little or no confrontation with law enforcement officers. Both demonstrations did, however, negatively impact daily life in San Jose, as downtown streets, which are congested on the best of days, were completely shut down on consecutive Thursday mornings. ¶3. Borrowing their route from last week's demonstration, the pro-CAFTA-DR crowd converged on the Legislative Assembly, where lawmakers are set to begin debating ratification of the trade accord. Upon arrival at the legislative complex, a delegation of seven business leaders presented an action request to key lawmakers, including Gerardo Gonzales, President of the Legislative Assembly. Gonzales was later quoted as saying that the event was a "signal" rather than pressure on the Legislative Assembly, to quickly ratify the agreement. ¶4. Several notable CAFTA-DR supporters participated in the march, among them libertarian presidential candidate and steadfast CAFTA-DR proponent Otto Guevara, several legislative aspirants, and the leaders of Costa Rica's business community and chambers of commerce. ¶5. Albino Vargas, Secretary General of the Association of Public and Private Employees (ANEP) and outspoken critic of CAFTA-DR, said he was encouraged by the event. Vargas was quoted as saying that, considering the economic power of the pro-CAFTA-DR business community and the amount of money it has invested in support of the agreement, there should have been an "unimaginable" number of rally participants. Vargas predicted that as the debate progresses, opposition to CAFTA-DR will increase. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. While organizers expressed their satisfaction with the pro-CAFTA-DR march, they appeared unaware that by organizing such an event they have ceded the terms of the debate to anti-CAFTA-DR forces. Albino Vargas, who organized last week's highly successful anti-CAFTA-DR demonstration, has long promised a "referendum on the streets" to determine CAFTA-DR's fate in Costa Rica. By staging their counter-demonstration, CAFTA-DR supporters fulfilled Vargas's promise. Public opinion surveys indicate that more than 60 percent of Costa Ricans support implementing CAFTA-DR. In addition, a clear majority of legislative deputies have indicated their intentions to vote for the agreement; dueling demonstrations with successively larger participation could merely serve to make the national debate appear closer than it actually is, and allow anti-CAFTA-DR activists to continue to grab headlines. ¶7. Further, CAFTA-DR proponents also run the risk of one day being unable to top the opposition's numbers. Such a situation would convey, correctly or not, that the pro-CAFTA-DR movement had lost steam. Given that they had so little to gain and so much to lose, most observers concluded that the pro-CAFTA-DR movement made a serious tactical error with the demonstration. LANGDALE