SECURITY OFFICIALS' CONFIDENCE GROWING AS CAFTA-DR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN JOSE 002051 SIPDIS WHA/CEN FOR MKOPOLOW WHA/EPSC FOR KURS, LGUMBINER EB FOR WCRAFT, BLAMPRON E FOR DEDWARDS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/30/2015 TAGS: ETRD ECON PREL SOCI CS SUBJECT: SECURITY OFFICIALS' CONFIDENCE GROWING AS CAFTA-DR DEBATE LOOMS REF: A. SAN JOSE 2038 ¶B. SAN JOSE 2037 Classified By: CDA Russell L. Frisbie for reasons 1.4 (b&d). ¶1. (C) During an official call August 31 on President Pacheco by General Craddock of U.S. Southern Command, the head of Costa Rica's national police said that as a result of growing public support for the U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR),police officials are less worried about their ability to respond to threats of violent street protests and a general strike. Walter Navarro, head of Costa Rica's "Fuerza Publica" or national police, said that recent public opinion polls have shown a decided shift in favor of the free trade agreement. (Note: While ref B documents a real shift in public opinion over the past nine months, there has been little change recently.) ¶2. (C) According to Navarro, the shift has caused union leaders and others who have been planning and threatening disturbances if the President sends the agreement to the Assembly for ratification to reconsider their strategy. As a result, Navarro is increasingly confident that security officials can maintain order and preserve critical infrastructure in the face of what he expects will be smaller and shorter demonstrations. ¶3. (C) Interestingly, Pacheco did not turn to his Minister of Public Security, Rogelio Ramos, who was present at the meeting, for confirmation of this assessment. Ramos is rumored to have recently threatened to resign his post if Pacheco submits CAFTA-DR for ratification--supposedly due to his belief that Costa Rican security forces would be incapable of enforcing and maintaining order in the face of a violent or sustained general strike. ¶4. (C) Comment: This is the latest in a string of generally positive developments related to CAFTA-DR (reftels). If Pacheco accepts Navarro's assessment as accurate, as he appears to have done, this would reduce one of the primary obstacles to Costa Rican ratification of the free trade agreement--Pacheco's fear of a violent backlash. However, Minister Ramos remains the most influential voice on security matters, and Pacheco told General Craddock as the meeting ended that he would send the agreement for ratification "in due time." FRISBIE