ROYG DECLARES END TO AL-HOUTHI REBELLION: SAADA

S E C R E T SANAA 000949

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2015
TAGS: PINR PREL PTER YM DOMESTIC POLITICS COUNTER TERRORISM
SUBJECT: ROYG DECLARES END TO AL-HOUTHI REBELLION: SAADA
IS QUIET, FOR NOW

REF: A. IIR 690601205

B. SANAA 906

Classified By: DCM Nabeel Khoury for reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (U) Summary. The ROYG claimed that it has ended the
al-Houthi uprising in Saada, but isolated clashes continue.
Initial casualty estimates show 280 killed from both sides in
less than two weeks of clashes, but such figures may rise as
more facts come to light. The main rebel leaders escaped
capture, and remain at large in northern Yemen. Simmering
hostilities caused by reportedly harsh ROYG tactics and
tribal feuds may lead to continued violence on a lesser
scale, and provide continued political fodder for both the
ROYG and opposition parties. End summary.


2. (U) The ROYG issued an official statement on April 11
declaring an end to the uprising in Saada, and security
forces claimed to have taken control of rebel strongholds.
Fighting continued in isolated areas even as the ROYG
declared an end to hostilities. Several sources reported
clashes in Dammaj, about 50 miles south of Saada, where
insurgents reportedly continued to offer resistance. Since
the announcement, rebels have also assassinated a security
officer in the Saada market and an army engineer in the
region of Razamat, near the Saudi border. Nevertheless,
residents of Saada confirm that violence has subsided and
they are free to move about the city after two weeks of
curfew.


3. (S) The number of casualties is difficult to confirm, but
conservative estimates from hospitals and official reports
show at least 280 people dead in two weeks of fighting and
many more wounded. Tribal leaders and some opposition
sources accuse the Ministry of Defense of using scorched
earth tactics against civilians, calling them "Dharfur-like."
The opposition paper al-Wahdawi reported MOD use of
helicopters to attack the Saada area of Habr, corresponding
with other reliable reports of air strikes (ref A). On April
4, government troops reportedly destroyed at least six homes
in al-Ramna, killing women and children.


4. (S) Opinions on the totality of the ROYG's victory vary
greatly. Early reports that security forces killed or
captured rebel leaders Badr Eddin al-Houthi, Abdullah Ayedh
al-Razami, and Yussef al-Madani proved false. The nature of
the uprising demonstrated a rebel strategy of unconventional
warfare that differed dramatically from last summer's
al-Houthi rebellion. Insurgents used a variety of mobile
tactics including snipers, ambushes, and night maneuvers.
Recent assassinations confirm a pattern that began with
assassination attempts on Saada Police Chief Brigadier
Mohammed Saleh Turaiq Deputy Governor, Hassan Manaa, as well
as grenade attacks in Sanaa (ref B). Lingering hostilities
may also be exacerbated by tribal feuds. Several sources
report that the conflict, which began as an uprising of the
"Believing Youth," devolved into various tribal vendettas.


5. (U) On April 8, opposition parties issued a joint
statement denouncing the second al-Houthi rebellion and
attacks on ROYG security forces in Sanaa. This somewhat
belated support for the government fueled accusations from
the ruling GPC party that opposition leaders encouraged the
uprising. Opposition leaders in turn have called for an
official investigation into the causes of the Saada conflict.


6. (SBU) Comment: The evidence supports ROYG claims that the
conflict in Saada is diminishing. Nevertheless, tensions
remain high and with the main rebel leaders still at large,
additional sporadic attacks are likely. Unconventional
tactics used by the insurgents suggest an ongoing threat of
assassinations and terrorist-style operations, perhaps
spreading into Sanaa and other regions of the country. Both
government and opposition leaders appear to be exploiting the
conflict for political gain. End comment.
Krajeski