SALEH - AL-AHMAR TENSIONS PORTEND THE LAUNCH OF A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 000426

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL YM DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: SALEH - AL-AHMAR TENSIONS PORTEND THE LAUNCH OF A
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN FOR 2006, AND BEYOND

REF: SANAA 37

Classified By: DCM Nabeel Khoury for reasons 1.5 (b and d).

(C) Summary and Comment: A public war of words between
President Saleh and opposition party, chief Sheikh al-Ahmar,
sparked by al-Ahmar's speech on the state of the economy,
reflects ongoing political maneuvering between President
Saleh's GPC and Islah in the run-up to the September 2006
presidential election. A February 14 article in GPC
mouthpiece "al-Mithaq," which attacked al-Ahmar and his sons
for corrupt business dealings and mismanagement of tribal
affairs, marked the start of public wrangling. A February 20
senior GPC delegation visit to al-Ahmar offered apologies for
the attacks and briefly reduced public sparring between the
parties. Political observers and insiders suggest that 2006
and the more critical 2012 presidential elections are behind
the Saleh-sanctioned attacks on the powerful leader of his
own Hamid tribe. Under the constitution, Saleh is prohibited
from running again in 2012. Some speculate that Saleh fears
Islah will try to block his son Ali Ahmed from inheriting his
father's "throne" in 2012 by nominating a "real" opposition
candidate for the first time. This could be the opening
salvo in a succession war that could heat up over the next
few months, while remaining totally undeclared, for the time
being. End Summary and Comment.

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Al-Ahmar Criticizes Economy -- No Saleh Endorsement
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(C) In the closing speech at Islah's third political
convention February 12, Sheikh Abdullah al-Ahmar warned of a
"potential (economic) disaster" if the diesel subsidies are
reduced later this year. He continued, "The current
deteriorating political and economic situation necessitates a
responsible stand ... to take the country away from the dark
impasse it is going through, before it is too late."
Observers were quick to point out that the Islah convention
did not endorse Saleh for the 2006 race, as some had
expected, given that the next General Party meeting will not
occur until after the September 2006 presidential elections.


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GPC Lashes Out
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(C) On February 14, GPC mouthpiece al-Mithaq responded to
Sheikh al-Ahmar's criticism of ROYG economic policies by
calling al-Ahmar the "gate keeper of the dark tunnel" facing
Yemen. (Note: Al-Mithaq editorials are widely believed
sanctioned by the President's office. End Note.) Authored
by the political editor of the paper, the article states
"Al-Ahmar and his sons' trading empire, from Saba Bank to
Sabafon to oil companies, was acquired by "force and deceit."
Most pointedly, the article repeats the widely believed rumor
that al-Ahmar receives large financial donations from a
"sister nation" i.e. Saudi Arabia. The article further
alleges, "al-Ahmar takes money from (his own) Hashid tribes,"
directly attacking his leadership of the powerful northern
confederation. In a strong sign of disrespect, the article
did not address al-Ahmar by his honorific title of sheikh,
referring to him only as Abdullah al-Ahmar. (Comment: The
al-Ahmar family has amassed considerable wealth via
questionable business practices. While vulnerable to
accusations of unethical practices, the family is not
atypical of other Yemeni elite families. End comment).

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Islah-GPC Coalition for 2006?
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(C) Although the controversial al-Mithaq article was billed
as a response to al-Ahmar's party convention speech, it is
not likely the real cause of the personal attack. According
to Parliament watcher Saad Edine al-Talib, GPC officials were
irked by the lack of Islah's endorsement of President Saleh
for another term in office, an indication that negotiations
between Islah and the GPC over the 2006 presidential election
may have broken down. Islah may be withholding its
endorsement in an effort to force the ROYG to weaken or
postpone the proposed lifting of subsidies in "doses,"
unpopular among the population. (Note: in 2001 Islah and
GPC endorsed Saleh, and Saleh's 'opponent' was another member
of his own GPC party. End Note). Talib believes that in a
recent meeting at al-Ahmar's residence, the Islah Supreme
Council, including Sheikh Zindani, agreed on the terms for a
deal in 2006 in return for GPC support for a strong Islah
candidate in 2012. Reportedly, Saleh has not endorsed such a
deal.

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First Salvo in the Succession War?
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5. (C) Al-Ahmar's speech was not remarkable in and of itself,
as Islah has publicly criticized the economic reform package
since it was introduced in Parliament in 2004. Deputy
Foreign Minister Mustafa Noman called the public criticism of
al-Ahmar "most impolite," saying that the GPC attacked
al-Ahmar in a very personal manner in response to a purely
political speech. Noman is convinced that the attack on
al-Ahmar was a retaliation for an interview al-Ahmar gave
three weeks ago in Qatari Arabic daily 'as-Sharq." In Qatar
for the occasion of a royal wedding, al-Ahmar told the paper
"we are against a hereditary presidency," and wondered, "Why
did we overthrow the Imam, if we now have a king?" (Comment:
Given that local journalists have been arrested and jailed
for even raising the issue of succession, if the quote is
accurate, it is indeed a bold one. End Comment). Talib
agreed with Noman's analysis, suggesting this may well be the
opening salvo in the succession war as Saleh maneuvers first
to extend his tenure and ultimately to hand the presidency
over to his son Ali Ahmed.

(C) The talk at some Qat chews is that al-Ahmar's tribal
honor has been maligned and that, according to Yemeni
culture, he must react. Talib and others believe that
al-Ahmar may loosen his reins on the tribes, which could
portend more tribal violence. Such disruptions might
undermine Saleh's control over the northern areas. Noman
disagrees, saying al-Ahmar would never unleash the tribes as
he knows that in the end he cannot win against government
troops. Instead, The DFM believes al-Ahmar will "extort"
another lucrative government contract for one of his sons in
return for toning down the words with the President. (Note:
Hamid al-Ahmar, the Sheikh's eldest son, currently owns the
largest power generation project in Yemen's history. End
Note). Noman pointed out that al-Ahmar is really "part of
the regime." Islah would never run a presidential candidate
unless al-Ahmar disappears from the scene, said the DFM,
Islah needs him for protection, and he needs Islah for cover
as a national political figure vice a mere northern tribal
leader.

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After Apology al-Ahmar still not Mollified,
Parliament Watches Tensely
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(C) On February 17, several tribal dignitaries converged on
al-Ahmar's house pledging allegiance to him, regardless of
party affiliation. Some contacts speculate that Saleh's
February 19 announcement of an investigation into the
al-Mithaq article is a conciliatory step in the ongoing war
of words. The Deputy Editor-in-Chief called into question is
a former YSP party member, and the investigation could be a
convenient way to purge the ranks of al-Mithaq.

(C) On February 20, GPC leader and Shura Council Chairman Abd
al-Aziz al-Ghani, along with a delegation of GPC officials,
visited al-Ahmar to formally apologize and offered to make
their contrition public. Al-Ahmar initially welcomed the
move and asked that the journalists be held accountable. In
a 2/23 al-Wasat article, however, al-Ahmar called the GPC
apology "cold" and repeated his demands that the editors be
prosecuted. The Al-Wasat editor asked if the reason behind
the attack was the Qatari interview, al-Ahmar responded,
"What I said is what other Yemenis say" and affirmed his
rejection to "succession" except if the person is nominated
in an democratic way. Not to be outdone, a GPC information
department officer told al-Bayan daily that Saleh will not
apologize to al-Ahmar. Talib reported on February 27, that
Parliament is "tense" and regular proceedings have been
disrupted as members await resolution of the spat.

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Will the Saleh Dynasty Hold?
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(C) Comment: Briefly after the Iraq war, public pictures of
the President were taken down. With just over a year before
the 2006 elections, Pictures of Saleh are returning and now
the most devoted carry prominent pictures of Saleh and Son in
aviator glasses on the rear-windshield of their cars. If
true, Islah's bargaining for the Presidency in 2012
interferes with Presidential planning for a Saleh dynasty.
Saleh's current wrangling with al-Ahmar signals that he
cannot take tribal allegiance for granted in his own
reelection in 2006, let alone in paving the way for his son
to succeed him in 2012. End Comment.
Krajeski