SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF U/S FOR GLOBAL AFFAIR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 SANAA 000335

SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS TO G, NICOLE BIBBINS SEDACA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2015
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV PTER KDEM KMPI ECON EAID PREF PHUM GTIP COUNTER TERRORISM DEMOCRATIC REFORM ECON COM TRAFFICKING PERSONS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF U/S FOR GLOBAL AFFAIR
DOBRIANSKY TO SANAA

Classified By: Ambassador Thomas C. Krajeski for reasons 1.5 b and d.


1. (SBU) Post warmly welcomes the visit of Under Secretary of
State for Global Affairs Paula J. Dobriansky to Yemen
February 23-25. You will meet with President Ali Abdullah
Saleh, Foreign Minister Abu Bakr al-Qirbi and Deputy Prime
Minister and Minister of Planning International Cooperation
Ahmed Sofan, and Minister of Human Rights Amat al-Soswa. As
the highest-ranking Department official to visit Yemen in
some time, you will find the ROYG leadership appreciative of
your visit and eager to discuss Yemen's role in regional
democratization efforts. Events are also planned with
reformers inside and outside of the ROYG, journalists, civil
society figures, and leaders in the women's movement.


2. (C) President Saleh will tout Yemen as a leader of
democratic change in the Middle East, pointing to Yemen's
progress vis-a-vis other regional actors. You can expect the
President to demand increased USG development assistance as
compensation for the cost of Yemen's participation in the
GWOT. Ministers Qirbi and Sofan will likely make the same
point, more subtly. They will say that to win the long-term
fight against terrorism the U.S., Europe, and the wealthy
Gulf states (read: KSA) must do more to help Yemen reduce
poverty, increase education, as well as invest more in
Yemen's economy.

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Yemen is at a Crossroads
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3. (C) Your visit is an opportunity to impress upon Saleh and
his Ministers that there is little time left for action on
economic and political reforms. With dwindling oil reserves,
a rapidly depleting water supply and population projections
through the ceiling, the time is now to get serious about
much needed reforms. The U.S. understands it will be a
difficult endeavor, and we are ready and willing to help --
but need to see the ROYG take tangible action to move forward
on tough reforms, specifically anti-corruption.

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Saleh: CT Cooperation Tied to USG Assistance
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4. (C) Saleh and CT Cooperation: Since the post-9/11 forging
of the U.S.-Yemen CT-partnership, President Saleh has
achieved major counter-terrorism gains and significantly
improved security in Yemen. Recent successes include the
round up of an emerging al-Qa'ida cell with plans to target
the U.S. Ambassador, and prosecution and conviction of the
Cole and M/V Limburg terrorists. Saleh's modus operendi on
CT cooperation, however, is to leverage successes into
further U.S. military and security cooperation, intelligence
support, development assistance, and food aid. He often
complains that USG assistance is not commensurate with
Yemen's GWOT efforts. Saleh is a master balancer of
competing interests and power poles and weighs any USG CT
request against his interests in appeasing domestic tribal
and Islamic elements. Saleh's need to balance competing
interests (and his own financial interests) has also served
to slow or stall important reform initiatives supported by
the donor community.

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Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is
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5. (C) President Saleh touts Yemen as the most democratic
country in the Gulf, noting progress on elections,
decentralization, and the exertion of parliamentary power.
Yemen held internationally recognized, generally free and
fair parliamentary elections in 2003. Presidential and local
elections are scheduled for 2006. Parliament has recently
flexed its muscles on corruption issues, refusing to approve
some Executive programs, but does not yet have the power to
present its own agenda for reform. Saleh has pursued a
democratic reform agenda which, to date, has not threatened
his own political power base. He has kicked more difficult
political decisions down the road, rendering any concrete
progress toward democracy less likely in the near term.


6. (C) In your meetings with Saleh and senior ROYG officials,
you may raise needed action on major reform agenda items
including: Tackling Yemen,s pervasive culture of
corruption, creating a more independent judiciary, and
institution building. The ROYG must also follow through with
its decentralization program, meant to give more power to
local councils, but as yet ineffective because the Minister
of Finance refuses to allocate appropriated funds to
municipal and local bodies.


7. (C) Many reformers within the ROYG fear Saleh believes he
has been handed a blank check on reforms due to his CT
cooperation. Deputy FM Noman (who you will have an
opportunity to meet),journalists and civil society leaders
are likely to ask for increased U.S. pressure on the ROYG to
follow through on promised democratic reforms. Your visit is
an opportunity to highlight for moderates within the ROYG and
Yemen society that the U.S. is serious about both democracy
and security in Yemen.

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Saleh Behind Rollback in Press Freedoms
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8. (U) Despite Saleh's July 2004 pledge to stop the
imprisonment of journalists and to reform the Press Law, 2004
witnessed deteriorating press freedoms in Yemen. Post has
repeatedly raised this negative trend with senior Yemeni
officials to no avail. Heat is rising on this issue,
generated by the imprisonment of Abdulkarim al-Khaiwani,
Editor-in-Chief of opposition daily "as-Shura". Khaiwani was
arrested, tried and convicted to a one-year prison term in
September 2004 for violations of Yemen's press law, specific
charges include offering "support to the al-Houthi uprising"
and "public humiliation of the President."


9. (C) Most observers believe that Saleh's recent press
crackdown (which reversed a positive trend),can be blamed on
his intense sensitivity to public criticism during the
unexpectedly long and bloody al-Houthi uprising in the
northern Sa'da region last summer. Unlike prior cases where
journalists' sentences were suspended, Khaiwani remains in
prison and we have credible reports of repeated physical
abuse. His plight has become a rallying point for local and
international journalists and human rights advocates and
Amnesty International have called for his immediate release.


10. (C) Reform-minded ROYG officials complain that Yemen's
reputation in the international community is suffering
needlessly due to Khaiwani's continued imprisonment. FM
Qirbi and other MFA officials have confided their discomfort
with the imprisonment of Khaiwani. Insinuating that the ROYG
is in a dilemma of its own making. Deputy Foreign Minister
Noman told DCM, "We have turned a mediocre journalist into a
Nelson Mandela." MFA officials are well aware that this case
is tarnishing Yemen's international reputation, but when
pushed Qirbi, like Saleh, will retreat behind the
Constitution, insisting that they cannot interfere with
Yemen's "independent Judiciary." In response you may press
President Saleh to follow through on his own pledge to amend
the Press Law.

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Economic Reform: Now or Never
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11. (C) Due to declining oil revenue, a rapidly expanding
population, high unemployment, and dwindling water resources,
Yemen faces serious economic challenges in the next five
years. An IMF/World Bank, donor supported economic reform
package designed to enhance the civil service, reform the tax
code, reduce customs tariffs, scale-back diesel subsidies,
and improve the general investment law has languished in
Parliament for two years. In an attempt to gain political
cover for economic cutbacks, the Cabinet sent the reform
package to Parliament for what they miscalculated would be
immediate passage. Parliament instead seized the opportunity
to voice frustration with the status quo by insisting the
ROYG address corruption before it would approve a reduction
in the popular diesel subsidy. ROYG officials blamed
"democracy" for the failure of the reform package.


12. (C) In January, Parliament struck a deal with the
executive to accept the badly needed economic reforms along
with amendments addressing some of Parliament's long-standing
concerns over decentralization, civil service pay, and
notoriously corrupt ministries. The compromise calls on the
Executive to implement Parliament's anti-corruption initiates
in stages over a six-month period; in return Parliament will
approval the economic reform plan in progressive stages. The
Executive must now demonstrate serious intent to carry out
painful reforms in order to maintain Yemen's minimally
performing economy from slipping further.

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FM al-Qirbi on Democratic Reforms
--------------


13. (C) FM Qirbi is a life-long reformer with moderate views
on Foreign Policy. Although too politic to say so directly,
he is concerned that the international community and
specifically the U.S. (i.e. BMENA and MCC) have yet to prove
a long-term commitment to democracy in the Middle East.
Behind Qirbi's skepticism of U.S. motives, is a belief that
GWOT considerations and concerns over regional stability
undermine the U.S. democratization agenda in the region.
This is most certainly the view of Deputy FM Noman, who may
advise you that U.S. programs aimed at reform in the region
are constrained by a view on the Arab street that years of
strong U.S. relations with oppressive Arab regimes have
scuttled the efforts of moderates in the region to effect
democratic reform.

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Why DAD Matters
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14. (C) As agreed at Sea Island, Italy and Turkey are
co-sponsoring a BMENA Democracy Assistance Dialogue (DAD)
with Yemen. Yemen gave presentations at the RABAT Forum For
the Future on democracy and microfinance. Foreign Minister
Qirbi continues to insist that the DAD co-sponsors fund the
establishment of a "Democracy Center" in Sanaa to be a
permanent DAD secretariat. At Morocco, Qirbi urged that the
forum be more than just talk, however the lack of movement on
the DAD gives credence to his fears that BMENA is just
another set of talking points. The Italians and Turks, with
our support, have resisted the idea of a permanent body.
Setting up a democracy center seems to be Qirbi's red line on
moving forward on the DAD. Listen to his proposal, but
stress the importance of using DAD as a mechanism for
concrete progress rather then bureaucracy building.


15. (C) Although pressing Qirbi on political reform may be
preaching to the choir, it is important to underscore the USG
believes it imperative that the ROYG stop talking and move
forward. You may congratulate Qirbi on Yemen's MCC Threshold
status and strongly suggest the ROYG make full use of the
next two years -- it will not be easy, but a full effort
should be made to tap into tens of millions of dollars in
development funds -- or the losers will be the Yemeni people.


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MFA Concerned About Yemeni Detainees
--------------


16. (S) Qirbi is likely to raise the status of Yemeni GTMO
detainees as well as access to two citizens the ROYG believes
are held at Bagram Air Force Base. In February the MFA made
several requests for information on Yemenis their Embassy in
Baghdad believes are being detainees by U.S. forces in Iraq,
although Post has no evidence that this is the case. You can
respond that the USG takes their concerns for their citizens
seriously and goes through each request case by case. These
are extraordinary circumstances by the U.S. is committee to
resolving these cases as quickly as possible and will
continue to Yemen informed on the status their citizens. You
may also note that the USG worked with the ROYG to send a
team of officials to Guantanamo Bay.

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Sofan Leads the ROYG's MCC Effort
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17. (SBU) MCC/Threshold: The Millennium Challenge
Corporation selected Yemen as a threshold country for 2004
and 2005. Yemen qualified in two of the three MCC categories
"Economic Freedom" and "Investing in People," but faces
serious shortcomings in the "Governing Justly" category. The
Ministry of Planning recently submitted its Threshold paper
to USAID, analyzing Yemen's failure to qualify under certain
indicators and offering a plan for improvement over the next
two years. The paper, which requested $14 million in
assistance over two years, was endorsed by AID and is now
with the MCC board.


18. (SBU) The ROYG's Threshold strategy emphasizes the
crosscutting theme of improving Yemen's investment climate,
within which it proposes plans to tackle corruption,
modernize property rights, increase the rule of law, and lift
media restrictions. Post was satisfied with the ROYG's
general direction, but remains skeptical about the presence
of political will to make painful reform.

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MEPI Gaining Ground in Yemen
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19. (U) MEPI's main focus in Yemen is on education and
democracy and governance, although it is increasingly
involved in trade and investment issues. MEPI funds a
democracy education program for children, vocational training
for young adults, e-learning schools, and is looking to
expand cooperation with the Ministry of Education. MEPI
recently approved funding for an International Foundation for
Electoral Systems (IFES) program to assist the ROYG prepare
for 2006 President and Local Councils elections. USAID and
MEPI are jointly funding a program to help the ROYG live up
to it commitments to decentralize government through the
mechanism of local councils. Our MEPI assistance has logged
considerable gains, including contributing to the success of
the 2003 Parliamentary elections. With MEPI funding, the
Financial Services Volunteer Corps is working on a program to
reform Yemen's banking sector and encourage domestic
investment.

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Minister Soswa Carries the Human Rights Banner
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20. (C) Minister Soswa is a frank interlocutor and effective
leader, adroit at influencing other Cabinet officials and
public opinion. As the most visible woman in Yemen, she is
aware she serves as a role model for Yemeni women and takes
this role seriously. Well-known and regarded in Washington
and internationally, she readily acknowledges that Yemen has
a long way to go in the field of human rights, and is
personally committed to getting there. Issues Soswa is
likely to raise include protection of press freedoms, due
process for Yemeni security detainees, human rights training
for ROYG security forces, and the participation and
representation of women in political life.


21. (C) There is a general belief among women activists and
civil servants that the ROYG only pays lip service to women's
rights. However, some women leaders, particularly those
affiliated with the ruling GPC party believe women,s' rights
in Yemen are progressing, albeit slowly. In the 2003
Parliamentary election, despite a record numbers of women
voters, only eleven out of a total of 1400 candidates were
women, and only one female candidate won a seat. Since
Unification in 1990, women in Yemen have lost ten of the
eleven seats they originally held. In 2001 local council
elections, 38 women won positions of 6,676 nationwide. Last
August, a USAID-sponsored NDI workshop brought together women
from the three major political parties to formula a joint
program to gain greater representation within their parties.
The participants opted for establishing a quota system for
female candidates. Soswa supports this platform, which is
rapidly gaining momentum.

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Somali Refugees: A Festering Problem
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22. (C) Yemen's refugee problems stem from conflict and
poverty in the Horn of Africa. UNHCR estimates that there
are 2,000 Ethiopia and Eritrea refugees in Yemen, although
this number would be many times higher were it possible to
count illegal worker. Somali refugees, who are granted
"prima-facie" protections in Yemen, are the ROYG's main
concern. The Government claims there are over 500,000 Somali
refugees in Yemen, despite UNHCR's much lower estimate of
70,000. Soswa is the ROYG point person on this issue and may
choose to raise it with you. She will likely point out that
Yemen offers the best protection for Somali refugees in the
region, and that the ROYG is willing to play its part, but
its resources are extremely limited and the international
community needs to contribute more. You may point to our
contribution to UNHCR, attempts to resettle qualified
refugees in the U.S., and a DoD project to build a school in
a Somali refugee camp in Aden.

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Trafficking in Persons
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23. (SBU) Although the ROYG is just coming to grips with TIP,
it has been responsive to USG concerns on the issue. In the
past year Yemen has taken several steps to improve its
understanding of TIP and study its scope in Yemen. There are
two main trafficked populations in Yemen: Yemeni children
from the north trafficked across the border to work illegally
in Saudi Arabia, and Iraqi women trafficked to Yemen, mainly
the southern port city of Aden, for the purpose of
prostitution. The Ministry of Social Affairs recently
cooperated with UNICEF to conduct a study on child
trafficking in Yemen. UNICEF's report, release in February,
estimates that 9000 Yemeni children were smuggled to the KSA
for the purpose of begging or menial labor in the first
quarter of 2004. In most cases children were trafficked with
the consent of their family and returned home between work
stints. UNICEF and the ROYG disagree over whether or not
these cases constitute illegal trafficking, illustrating that
more work needs to be done to train official and education
the public about TIP.
Krajeski