SALEH CELEBRATES HIS 27TH WITH PANACHE AND SAYS HE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001910

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL YE DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: SALEH CELEBRATES HIS 27TH WITH PANACHE AND SAYS HE
WON'T RUN AGAIN!


Classified By: CDA NABEEL KHOURY FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
Summary:
--------------

1 (U) The diplomatic community was invited, along with
Yemen's political establishment, to help President Saleh
celebrate his 27th year in office. Sandwiched between a long
receiving line and a cake and toast-fest guests were treated
to a vintage Saleh speech replete with "frank" talk to
Opposition parties, media and the diplomatic community. Saleh
asked the opposition not to think like foes to the regime; he
asked the media to be more responsible and the diplomatic
community not to intervene in Yemen's internal affairs. The
highlight of the speech came when he suddenly asserted that
he would not run for another term as President. End Summary.

--------------
I respect you, but don't push it!
--------------


2. (U) After shaking hands with his several hundred
well-wishers, Saleh gave a speech which started predictably
with remarks on the history of the country, the revolution
and the struggle for unity between north and south. Saleh
then quickly jumped to the matter at hand, the current state
of affairs in the country. Saleh asserted that Yemen's
democracy and pluralism course was set by Yemenis for Yemenis
and took root before any "foreigner" tried to impose it from
outside. In that vein, said Saleh, the idea of freedom of
expression and organization was genuine but had to be
properly defined. "Free expression does not mean the freedom
to curse and malign people. The media must be responsible and
know its limits." As for the opposition, Saleh counseled, "I
respect you. You are the other face of the government and the
state. By all means, oppose and run for office, but don't
think of yourselves as foes of the state or the ruling party.
You have a responsibility for what happens here. You are our
partners."

--------------
You Can't Leave Us!
--------------


3. (U) Clearly departing from his text, Saleh asked that the
opposition be encouraged to run for the highest office and to
help build a new generation of leaders in the country.
Indeed, Saleh added, "I will not run for another term in
office. I will complete my constitutional duties to the
fullest and then make room for others to lead this
country."Saleh was barely allowed to finish his sentence
before being interrupted by groans and moans from the Yemeni
side of the room. Amidst shouts of "No, this can't be," one
Qabili stood up and gave an impassioned plea for Saleh to
reconsider, saying, "You can't leave us, we will support you
and be by your side forever!"


4. Ominously, Saleh made several "don't interfere in our
internal affairs" remarks to the foreign diplomats in the
audience. Directing himself to democracy building programs in
the country, Saleh said, "We accept your advice but not your
interference." Giving a specific example of "a group that
recently met in Hadramout to discuss tribal revenge killing"
- (a reference that seemed aimed at a U.S. Embassy supported
program) Saleh said, "I say to the foreign community keep
your activities channeled through our ministry of foreign
affairs. Deal with NGOs but only those already established
and recognized by us. Don't start your own NGOs here."

--------------
Comment:
--------------


5. (C) CDA canvassed other foreign diplomats and a few ROYG
contacts, during the reception that followed the speech, for
their reactions. Consensus was that the President was being
coy and certainly was not serious about not running for
office in 2006. His courting of the opposition, almost in the
same breath as saying he won't run, was according to some, a
clear appeal for the opposition to nominate him for another
term in office, as they did the last time around. As for his
warning against interference in Yemen's internal affairs, one
of our ROYG contacts said, "don't worry, someone probably
whispered that one in his ear prior to his speech and he felt
he had to throw it in." Islah leader, Sheikh Abdallah
al-Ahmar, has over the past several months protested the
"free movement of American and western diplomats around the
country, in a way that constituted interference in Yemen's
internal affairs." Saleh's need to woo al-Ahmar away from a
serious challenge for the Presidency may indeed explain his
remarks on foreign intervention. In the end, a vintage Saleh
speech and performance, but no real policy departures on
this, the 27th anniversary of Saleh's reign. End comment.
Khoury