ROYG INSIDERS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH SALEH CLAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001352

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2015
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, PINR, KMCA, KMPI, DOMESTIC POLITICS
SUBJECT: ROYG INSIDERS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH SALEH
CLAN

REF: SANAA 966

Classified By: Ambassador Thomas C. Krajeski for reasons 1.4 b and d.

1. (S/NF) Ambassador met informally with Shura Council Member
Mohammed al-Tayeb at his home on May 19. A member of a group
of pragmatic, reform-minded ROYG insiders, Tayeb said that
President Saleh is more interested in enriching his family
than in making the strategic choices necessary to lead Yemen
into the future. Tayeb was gloomy about President Saleh's
ability to understand the importance of the issues of
controlling SA/LW and intelligence sharing to U.S.-ROYG
cooperation, and said Saleh did not comprehend what was
necessary to maintain a close relationship with the USG in
the long term. End Summary.

2. (S/NF) Echoing what we are increasingly hearing from those
ROYG interlocutors closest to the Embassy, Tayeb said that
Saleh is more and more isolated, and less and less responsive
to advice from those practical, progressive ROYG insiders
whom he counts himself among (MOI Alimi, MFA Qirbi, DFM
Noman, MOPIC Minister Sofan and a few other, mostly
western-educated, reformers). Tayeb moaned that Saleh
"listens to no one," and is "unrealistically and stupidly
confident" that he will always make the right decisions.
Saleh, he said, does not think strategically and cares only
about enriching his own family, particularly: Saleh's
brother, Air Force Commander Mohamed; cousin, Ali Mohsen
al-Ahmar Commander of Northern Army (considered the second
most powerful man in Yemen); son, Yemen Special Forces
Commander Ahmed Ali (and Saleh's preferred heir to the
throne); and his two favored nephews, Yehia, Central Security
Forces Commander, and Amaar, National Security Bureau Deputy
Director.

3. (S/NF) Together with Sheikh Abdullah al Ahmar's clan
(speaker of the Parliament and supreme chief the Hashid
tribal confederation which includes Saleh's tribe),all of
Yemen's wealth is being squandered and stolen by Saleh who is
increasingly "greedy and paranoid," especially regarding
American intentions, said Tayeb. Tayeb said extension of
Hunt Oil's Block 18 concession is finished (reftel); the
spoils will be divided up between the Haile Sayeeds,
al-Ahmars, and Salehs with a UK company taking over the
operation of the oil-fields. Tayeb claimed that Amaar and
Yehia Saleh are making millions working the diesel smuggling
and black market along with Ali Mohsen, using military
vehicles and NSB and CSF staff to move the fuel to markets in
Yemen and Saudi Arabia. One story has Amaar Saleh depositing
more than 7 million USD cash into his private account in the
National Bank. Tayeb swore this was true and came directly
from the bank manager and employees who had to scramble to
find enough clerks to count the cash in front of a nervous
and sweating Amaar.

4. (S/NF) Tayeb also said that his contacts in Saada,
including a leading sheikh (he would not give his name),are
all furious with Saleh over the amount of indiscriminate
killing and destruction perpetrated by the regular army in
the north during last month's suppression of the al-Houthi
rebellion. Tayeb claimed that the "Believing Youth" were by
far the minority of the fighters in Saada, rather he said,
most fighters came from tribes allied together against Saleh
and the central government. He said Saleh is "extremely
concerned" that he could lose control of the tribes in Saada
and that this will spread to the al-Jawf and Ma'rib tribes.

5. (S/NF) "Everyone", according to Tayeb, has had it with the
corruption of Saleh and his family. As an example, Tayeb
cited the outrageous costs of this Sunday's May 22
celebration of the fifteenth Unity Day being held in Mukalla
at a cost, claimed Tayeb, of more than 300 million USD, most
of which will go into the pockets of those government
officials arranging the show. (Note: The price tag Tayeb
gave likely includes some of the massive development projects
in Mukalla and elsewhere that the government is rushing to
complete before May 22. End Note.)

6. (S/NF) Comment: Tayeb is only one source, and this is not
the first time he has given a pessimistic assessment of Saleh
and his cronies. He still has access to the President in the
informal role of "American handler and analyst." But we are
increasingly hearing hints and murmurs from others, including
DFM Mustafa Noman and Senior Presidential Advisor Abdul
Kareem al-Iryani (who told Ambassador recently that he "wants
out" of politics because the President no longer listens to
his advice). Even Hameed al Ahmar, the son of Sheikh
Abdullah and CEO of Al Ahmar Inc., who, while most certainly
profiting from the corrupt business dealings of his father
and Saleh, claimed that he and a group of young GPC and Islah
MP's intend to band together to force the government to
control corruption and enact reforms.

7. (S/NF) Comment Continued. We have heard rumors backing up
Hameed al-Ahmar's claim of an opposition candidate in 2006.
Saleh is worried about a possible political challenge next
year from Islah and the new opposition coalition JMP, or even
from within the GPC. We may well see another clamp-down on
the press and political parties "for security reasons" that
will roll back some or much of the progress made in
democratic reforms and human rights just in time for this
year's MCC reports. End Comment.
Krajeski