ROYG INSIDERS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH SALEH CLAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SANAA 001352



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2015

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PTER, PINR, KMCA, KMPI, DOMESTIC POLITICS

SUBJECT: ROYG INSIDERS INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED WITH SALEH

CLAN



REF: SANAA 966



Classified By: Ambassador Thomas C. Krajeski for reasons 1.4 b and d.



1. (S/NF) Ambassador met informally with Shura Council Member

Mohammed al-Tayeb at his home on May 19. A member of a group

of pragmatic, reform-minded ROYG insiders, Tayeb said that

President Saleh is more interested in enriching his family

than in making the strategic choices necessary to lead Yemen

into the future. Tayeb was gloomy about President Saleh's

ability to understand the importance of the issues of

controlling SA/LW and intelligence sharing to U.S.-ROYG

cooperation, and said Saleh did not comprehend what was

necessary to maintain a close relationship with the USG in

the long term. End Summary.



2. (S/NF) Echoing what we are increasingly hearing from those

ROYG interlocutors closest to the Embassy, Tayeb said that

Saleh is more and more isolated, and less and less responsive

to advice from those practical, progressive ROYG insiders

whom he counts himself among (MOI Alimi, MFA Qirbi, DFM

Noman, MOPIC Minister Sofan and a few other, mostly

western-educated, reformers). Tayeb moaned that Saleh

"listens to no one," and is "unrealistically and stupidly

confident" that he will always make the right decisions.

Saleh, he said, does not think strategically and cares only

about enriching his own family, particularly: Saleh's

brother, Air Force Commander Mohamed; cousin, Ali Mohsen

al-Ahmar Commander of Northern Army (considered the second

most powerful man in Yemen); son, Yemen Special Forces

Commander Ahmed Ali (and Saleh's preferred heir to the

throne); and his two favored nephews, Yehia, Central Security

Forces Commander, and Amaar, National Security Bureau Deputy

Director.



3. (S/NF) Together with Sheikh Abdullah al Ahmar's clan

(speaker of the Parliament and supreme chief the Hashid

tribal confederation which includes Saleh's tribe),all of

Yemen's wealth is being squandered and stolen by Saleh who is

increasingly "greedy and paranoid," especially regarding

American intentions, said Tayeb. Tayeb said extension of

Hunt Oil's Block 18 concession is finished (reftel); the

spoils will be divided up between the Haile Sayeeds,

al-Ahmars, and Salehs with a UK company taking over the

operation of the oil-fields. Tayeb claimed that Amaar and

Yehia Saleh are making millions working the diesel smuggling

and black market along with Ali Mohsen, using military

vehicles and NSB and CSF staff to move the fuel to markets in

Yemen and Saudi Arabia. One story has Amaar Saleh depositing

more than 7 million USD cash into his private account in the

National Bank. Tayeb swore this was true and came directly

from the bank manager and employees who had to scramble to

find enough clerks to count the cash in front of a nervous

and sweating Amaar.



4. (S/NF) Tayeb also said that his contacts in Saada,

including a leading sheikh (he would not give his name),are

all furious with Saleh over the amount of indiscriminate

killing and destruction perpetrated by the regular army in

the north during last month's suppression of the al-Houthi

rebellion. Tayeb claimed that the "Believing Youth" were by

far the minority of the fighters in Saada, rather he said,

most fighters came from tribes allied together against Saleh

and the central government. He said Saleh is "extremely

concerned" that he could lose control of the tribes in Saada

and that this will spread to the al-Jawf and Ma'rib tribes.



5. (S/NF) "Everyone", according to Tayeb, has had it with the

corruption of Saleh and his family. As an example, Tayeb

cited the outrageous costs of this Sunday's May 22

celebration of the fifteenth Unity Day being held in Mukalla

at a cost, claimed Tayeb, of more than 300 million USD, most

of which will go into the pockets of those government

officials arranging the show. (Note: The price tag Tayeb

gave likely includes some of the massive development projects

in Mukalla and elsewhere that the government is rushing to

complete before May 22. End Note.)



6. (S/NF) Comment: Tayeb is only one source, and this is not

the first time he has given a pessimistic assessment of Saleh

and his cronies. He still has access to the President in the

informal role of "American handler and analyst." But we are

increasingly hearing hints and murmurs from others, including

DFM Mustafa Noman and Senior Presidential Advisor Abdul

Kareem al-Iryani (who told Ambassador recently that he "wants

out" of politics because the President no longer listens to

his advice). Even Hameed al Ahmar, the son of Sheikh

Abdullah and CEO of Al Ahmar Inc., who, while most certainly

profiting from the corrupt business dealings of his father

and Saleh, claimed that he and a group of young GPC and Islah

MP's intend to band together to force the government to

control corruption and enact reforms.



7. (S/NF) Comment Continued. We have heard rumors backing up

Hameed al-Ahmar's claim of an opposition candidate in 2006.

Saleh is worried about a possible political challenge next

year from Islah and the new opposition coalition JMP, or even

from within the GPC. We may well see another clamp-down on

the press and political parties "for security reasons" that

will roll back some or much of the progress made in

democratic reforms and human rights just in time for this

year's MCC reports. End Comment.

Krajeski