ITALY: CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES PASSES ELECTORAL REFORM

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003442

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL IT ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY: CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES PASSES ELECTORAL REFORM
LAW

REF: ROME 3376

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor David Pearce for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. PM Berlusconi's Center-Right coalition moved
an electoral reform bill through the important Chamber of
Deputies on October 13 in a vote that ended in an opposition
walkout and mass abstention. The bill is widely expected to
pass the Senate next week and become law. The change heralds
a return to a proportional voting system, originally scrapped
in favor a mixed majoritarian/proportional system after a
1993 public referendum. The main effect of the law will be
to strengthen the role of political party leaders in
candidate selection nationwide. Italy does not have a strong
tradition of party primaries. The change may improve the
electoral chances of PM Berlusconi's Center-Right coalition
slightly, but it also satisfies concerns of some Center-Right
coalition members who believe the Center-Right will lose the
Spring 2006 elections. Union of the Christian Democrats of
the Center (UDC) leaders, currently allied with Berlusconi,
aspire to recreate a coalition of the center and are
preparing for what they see as the probable victory and
subsequent collapse of a Center-left coalition led by Romano
Prodi. Opposition parties call the electoral reform
"undemocratic" though the parties of the Center-Left are
actually less affected by the reform than Prodi, who heads
the Center-Left coalition but has no formal party
affiliation. The new law will likely force Prodi either to
found his own party or to join an existing one. END SUMMARY.

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RETURN TO PROPORTIONAL VOTING
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2. (U) The Chamber of Deputies approved electoral reform
legislation on October 13. Under the new election law,
parliamentarians will be elected according to a proportional
system. Italians will vote party lists for both the Chamber
of Deputies and the Senate with the number of seats in each
chamber allocated to the parties based on the percentage of
votes received. A party must receive at least four percent
of all votes to receive seats. The threshold is reduced to
two percent if the party is formally part of a coalition that
receives at least 10 percent of total votes. There will be a
"governing premium" for the winning coalition in order to
increase governing stability. If the winning coalition does
not obtain at least 340 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (out
of a total 630) it will automatically be given 340 seats.
The remaining seats will be divided among opposition parties
on a proportional basis. In the Senate, the governing
coalition will be given at least 170 seats out of a total of

315. As before, there are 12 seats in the Chamber and 6 in
the Senate elected directly by Italians living abroad. The
leader of the largest party in the winning coalition will be
the presumptive prime ministerial candidate. However, this
cannot be stated explicitly in the law since the selection of
prime minister is constitutionally the prerogative of the
President of the Republic.


3. (U) The legislation will pass to the Senate for
consideration next week. No amendments are expected from the
Senate. If the bill, in fact, passes unamended, then it goes
to the President for signature and becomes law.

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A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM
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4. (SBU) Italy's last significant electoral reform occurred
in 1994 after voters overwhelmingly supported a national
referendum proposing the abolition of the proportional
system, which had been in place for the entire post-war
period. Party leaders, wanting to respond to the referendum,
but afraid to lose their influence, developed a mixed system
in which 75 percent of parliamentary seats were voted
directly in local constituencies and 25 percent by proportion
from nationwide lists. Among other effects, the system
encouraged the development of center-left and center-right
coalitions, and many observers credit the reform with
creating more stable governments. Berlusconi has served the
longest consecutive period of any post-war Italian Prime
Minster.

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WHY THE CENTER-RIGHT WANTED THE CHANGE
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5. (SBU) Infighting in the Center-Right coalition has spilled
out into the press for the last several months. Union of the
Christian Democrats of the Center (UDC) party leaders Marco
Follini and Pier Ferdinando Casini called openly for PM
Silvio Berlusconi to step aside as leader of the Center-Right
coalition and agitated strongly for electoral reform. At the
same time, Northern League politicians said they would not
support electoral reform until after the coalition passes a
law supporting devolution of powers from the central
government to the regions. Coalition leaders began to
speculate about the need for their own primary election and
rumors circulated that the UDC would soon leave the coalition.


6. (C) The electoral reform will accomplish several
objectives for the Center-Right coalition. Opposition party
leader Pier Fassino (DS) told Poloff that the Center-Right is
so divided that they could never determine how to distribute
future seats among themselves. He said this reform was
necessary since it provides a clear method to distribute
seats. More importantly, the Center-Right coalition has a
"branding" problem, according to many observers. In the
previous mixed system, the coalition symbol generally
received less total votes in the direct component of the
election than the sum of the votes for the individual parties
in the proportional component of the election. In a purely
proportional system, the Center-Right coalition, through
votes for individual parties, will gain a few percentage
points more of total votes cast.

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REMAKING THE CENTER
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7. (C) UDC politicians have been vocal in their desire to
recreate the tradition of the Christian Democrat party that
ruled Italy for most of the post-war period--until corruption
scandals and electoral reform brought it down. The
proportional system weakens the importance of the coalition
system (REFTEL),since individual parliamentarians will owe
their seat to the party more than to the coalition. Most
political observers maintain that UDC leaders Marco Follini
and Pier Ferdinando Casini are betting that Romano Prodi's
Center-Left coalition will win next spring's national
elections, but will fall relatively soon afterward because of
inherent instabilities in the center-left. The UDC then
hopes to cobble together the more conservative elements of
the center-left with his party and any defections from Forza
Italia. Many of these party members and their voters were
once part of the Christian Democrat Party.

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PRODI AND CENTER-LEFT CRY FOUL
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8. (C) Center-Left parliamentarians walked out of the Chamber
and abstained from the vote after their attempts at
filibuster failed. Various party leaders have called the
bill "undemocratic," and Fassino criticized the Center-Right
as desperately looking for ways to hold on to power. The
electoral reform is a potential blow to Center-Left coalition
leader Romano Prodi. Prodi does not have a political party,
and may have to either found one or run at the head of a list
of one of the existing coalition partners. Also, by making
the parties more independent of the coalition, it weakens his
already tenuous hold on a very divided Center-Left coalition.
Political commentators say the electoral reform law will
overshadow the October 16 Center-Left primaries, which one
Daisy party officials told Poloff are meaningless with a
proportional system.


9. (SBU) Non-partisan critics have observed that political
parties are traditionally very strong in Italy, and that this
reform will strengthen them even further. Many also
criticize the move as "undemocratic" and a "move back to the
First Republic." Under the system in place since 1994, the
coalition picks who runs in each of the electoral districts,
but the eventual winner is voted directly by a local
constituency in 75 percent of the cases. This creates a
direct link between the parliamentarian and his voter base.
With the reform, people will vote a national party list
chosen by the party leadership. As such, since there is not
a strong tradition of party primaries for candidate
selection, the parliamentarian will be more accountable to
the party than to the voting public.

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COMMENT
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10. (C) COMMENT: If it passes the Senate (as it probably
will),this electoral reform law is not likely to
significantly affect the overall outcome of national
elections next spring. At best, the Center-Right might
squeeze a few extra percentage points out of the reform. The
more significant impacts are: (1) It should calm waters
inside the Center-Right coalition, ending the debate over a
change in "coalition leadership" and satisfying a key UDC
demand; (2) It may weaken Romano Prodi's already tenuous hold
over his coalition; and (3) It clears away some of the
obstacles for the parties born from the former Christian
Democrat power base to recreate the tradition of governing
from the "Center." Many political actors are betting the
Center-Left will win next year's elections and then fall
because of internal discord. The UDC and others are already
positioning themselves to pick up the pieces if Berlusconi's
Center-Right government loses next spring, and is succeeded
by a short-lived Center-Left coalition. END COMMENT.
BORG


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2005ROME03442 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL