ITALY: UDC WITHDRAWS ITS MINISTERS FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001291

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY: UDC WITHDRAWS ITS MINISTERS FROM
GOVERNMENT, BUT NO ELECTIONS BEFORE 2006

Classified By: POL-MIL COUNSELOR JONATHAN COHEN, REASONS 1.5 (D).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The centrist Union of Christian
Democrats of the Center (UDC) announced on April 15 that it
would withdraw its ministers from the Berlusconi Government.
UDC leader Marco Follini assured the Government that his
party would continue to support the majority from outside the
coalition. It is unclear whether this move will prompt a
"Berlusconi Bis" -- a resignation of the current Government
so that it would, essentially, replace itself. Available
contacts on both left and right, however, joined in
predicting that national elections will still not be held
before 2006; neither center-right, center-left nor the
Italian political and budget cycle are ready for them
earlier. The final shape of what we expect to be the ongoing
Berlusconi Government may not be clear for several days. END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) Following an April 15 leadership meeting, former
governing coalition partner UDC announced it would withdraw
its ministers from the Berlusconi Government. UDC, one of
the two smaller partners in the governing coalition, has
three ministers -- Rocco Buttiglione (EU Policies),Carlo
Amedeo Giovannardi (Relations with Parliament),and Mario
Baccini (Public Administration). UDC holds 31 seats in the
Chamber of Deputies and 35 in the Senate; were the party to
withdraw its parliamentary support, the governing coalition
would lose its majority in both chambers. However, UDC
leader (former DPM) Marco Follini assured the Government of
his party's "loyal support" in Parliament. UDC has the duty
to make sure the majority continues to govern, Follini said.
UDC would support, for example, the Government's draft law to
improve economic competitiveness, even on a confidence vote.
UDC proposed "a new government of the House of Freedoms (the
governing coalition),presided by Silvio Berlusconi."


3. (SBU) Tiny coalition supporter Italy's New Socialist
Party (PSI),the vehicle for former Foreign Minister Gianni
De Michelis, also announced its withdrawal from the
coalition. PSI has no ministers (one deputy minister and one
under secretary) and six seats in the Chamber of Deputies.
Its withdrawal is not significant.


4. (C) In the wake of the governing coalition's disastrous
results in April 3-4 regional voting, FM Fini's National
Alliance (AN) and UDC are pursuing different strategies, but
have similar goals. Both parties want a new focus in the
Government's program. While 2004 electoral wrangling seemed
more focused on positions than policy, today's
intra-coalition debate is about programs. As Fini told the
press, AN wants the Government to say concretely what it will
do to help Italy's South (Mezzogiorno),to protect family
incomes, and to spur competitiveness. The UDC leadership's
statement announcing the withdrawal of its ministers echoed
those demands. While both leading coalition partner Forza
Italia (FI) and the Northern League (Lega) have their voter
base in the north, AN and UDC have national constituencies,
relatively stronger in the south. Their electorates include
significant percentages, probably majorities, of voters who
expect state services, state income support, and a more
populist approach to governing.


5. (C) In the wake of UDC's withdrawal, the Government will
have to seek some form of Parliamentary approval by
confidence vote, but opinions are divided as to whether this
will necessitate a reconstituted government -- the
"Berlusconi Bis" the Prime Minister wants to avoid.
(Berlusconi sees within his grasp the historical prize of
being Italy's first Prime Minister to complete a full term.)
President Ciampi plays a large role. Under Italy's
Constitution, he must countersign the appointment of any
minister, and Berlusconi will have to replace the three UDC
ministers who submitted their resignations. While Ciampi
does not have constitutional power to impose a change in
ministers or to demand that the ministers be approved by
Parliament, he has public influence. He could, and we think
it likely that he will, ask Berlusconi to have his new team
approved by Parliament. Presuming UDC keeps its word that it
will support the Government on confidence measures, and that
AN and the League hold fast, a vote, whether on ministers or
a program, should not threaten the Government.


6. (C) Ciampi could also ask Berlusconi to resign, but
could not legally insist that the PM do so. (COMMENT: We
note, however, that President Scalfaro forced Berlusconi's
1994 resignation by going on television to make his demand
public. This seems less Ciampi's style, but cannot be
completely ruled out. END COMMENT.) Berlusconi began the
week saying adamantly that there would be no "Berlusconi
Bis." Today, he replied to press questions with a more
equivocal "We'll see." With expected bravura, however, he

added, "You won't get rid of me easily." A contact in the
Prime Minister's Diplomatic Adviser's office predicted that
the Government would be forced to regroup, going into a
Berlusconi Bis. (This would still leave him the
not-insignificant title of being the longest-serving prime
minister in Italy's post-World War II history.)


7. (C) Long-range political positioning guides partisan
maneuvering. AN faction leader (and Agricultural Minister)
Alemanno suggested this week that the coalition should run a
"ticket" in 2006 elections featuring Berlusconi for President
of the Republic and Fini for Prime Minister. (Note: This is
not actually possible under the Italian voting system.) His
after-thought addition that Chamber of Deputies President
Pier Ferdinando Casini (who considers himself the best choice
for either slot) might also be a candidate for PM did little
to mollify UDC. UDC considers itself the rightful leader of
a new "grand center alliance," but the numbers give AN
greater political weight. Thus, whether or not they are
battling head to head, much of the current maneuvering is
aimed at positioning Casini and Fini for a post-Berlusconi
role, whether the next era comes sooner (with a debilitated
Berlusconi being forced to resign) or later (after a
triumphant Berlusconi concludes a second term).


8. (C) COMMENT: It is unclear exactly what the Italian
Government will look like one week from now, but we think it
will still be led by the current Prime Minister. And while
we are slightly less sanguine than we were a week ago in
predicting that the next national elections will be in 2006,
that is still our best bet. Neither the center-left nor the
center-right is ready for elections now; summer means
vacations, not elections; and fall elections are unheard of
in Italy due to the requirement to approve a budget by
year-end. Both Senate President Pera (FI) and Senator
Lamberto Dini (leader of his own minuscule center-left party,
Italian Renewal) were with the Ambassador at a Fulbright
ceremony when news of UDC's withdrawal reached Pera's press
spokesperson by SMS, and both agreed with these premises.

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2005ROME01291 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL