EU COMMISSIONER FRATTINI PREDICTS BIG CABINET

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 001127

SIPDIS


NOFORN

DEPT FOR EUR/WE AND EUR/ERA, USEU FOR MEZNAR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/01/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV IT EUN ITALIAN POLITICS ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: EU COMMISSIONER FRATTINI PREDICTS BIG CABINET
SHAKEUP (INCLUDING HIS OWN RETURN TO ROME) FOR SECOND
BERLUSCONI ADMINISTRATION

REF: ROME 1058

Classified By: A/DCM TOM COUNTRYMAN. REASON:1.4 (B)(D)

--------------
BERLUSCONI II
--------------


1. (C/NOFORN) During Ambassador Sembler's April 1 farewell
courtesy call, EU Commissioner for Justice and Home Affairs
(and former Italian FM) Franco Frattini (strictly protect)
predicted that PM Berlusconi's program of tax cuts and
infrastructure improvements would win his center-right
coalition a second mandate in the spring 2006 elections. The
left, and its leader Romano Prodi, represent "old-style
thinking," are losing popularity, cannot communicate
effectively, and have neither vision nor enthusiasm.
Frattini confided that Berlusconi would undertake a "broad
reshuffle" of his cabinet to "renew" his second government
and give it "fresh impetus." Berlusconi may even announce
some of the changes just prior to the elections. Frattini
confided that he would return to Rome if Berlusconi wins the
elections, but that this information was, at the moment,
secret.

SIPDIS


2. (C) Frattini also predicted that a center-right victory at
the polls would result in either PM senior advisor Gianni
Letta or Chamber of Deputies President Pier Fernando Casini
being selected President of the Republic in May 2006 by the
next Parliament. A center-left victory would likely result
in former PM Giuliano Amato as President. Frattini noted
that Letta would win the support of many on the left, and
that while Berlusconi would be reluctant to give up Letta's
day-to-day counsel, the PM would value having "such a close
friend" in the Quirinale. Frattini was not quite as
confident about the center-right's results for this weekend's
regional elections. He predicted that the right would win
six or seven of the 14 regions in play, including Piemonte,
Lombardia, Veneto, Lazio, Puglia and Calabria. (Note: The
center-right currently holds eight regions.)

--------------
BRUSSELS PRIORITIES - IMMIGRATION
--------------


3. (C) In Brussels, he and his Commission will continue to
focus on issues of critical concern to both the US and EU,
including transportation security and a visa regime. On May
4 his office will release the first ever EU policy paper on
immigration and border control. The document will call for
more north-south cooperation on immigration, refugee and
asylum issues so that Mediterranean countries do not continue
to bear a disproportionate share of the burden. It will also
outline proposals for more third-country involvement on
interdiction, as well as repatriation and resettlement of
illegal immigrants.

--------------
VISA WAIVER-BIOMETRICS
--------------


4. (SBU) The Ambassador handed Frattini a copy of House
Judiciary Chairman Sensenbrenner's response to his letter
asking for a nine month extension of the deadline for
implementing the USG requirement that passports issued after
October 26 held by Visa Waiver program travelers must have an
embedded biometric chip. Frattini had not seen the response,
and did not react to Sensenbrenner's view that an extension
was "unlikely" except to say that many countries are
experiencing "financial constraints" in their attempts to
make the deadline. Frattini plans to travel to the US in
June, but did not indicate he would meet with US lawmakers to
discuss this issue. The details of his visit are being
worked out by the Italian Embassy, but it will definitely
include a speech at Georgetown University.


5. (C/NOFORN) Comment: Frattini's plea for secrecy about his
planned return to Rome for a second Berlusconi administration
is probably based on his reluctance to upset his fellow
Commissioners and Commission President Barroso. If Berlusconi
happens to lose, Frattini would likely retain his position in
Brussels. Frattini did not confide the exact position he
would hold in Berlusconi II, but if his Presidential
prediction pans out, he could step into Letta's place as
Berlusconi's right hand.

SEMBLER


NNNN
2005ROME01127 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL