SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF AMBASSADOR KHALILZAD

S E C R E T RIYADH 009490 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA/ARPI FOR SHUKAN, BAGHDAD FOR FORD E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/26/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV OVIP PTER IZ SA SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF AMBASSADOR KHALILZAD TO SAUDI ARABIA DECEMBER 27, 2005 REF: RIYADH 9489 RIYADH 9486 BAGHDAD 5104 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Michael Gfoeller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Your visit to Saudi Arabia comes during an upswing in the U.S.-Saudi Arabia relationship that was highlighted on November 13, when Secretary Rice and Foreign Minister Saud Al Faisal inaugurated the U.S.-Saudi Strategic Dialogue, a new diplomatic process designed to reinvigorate our bilateral relations. ¶2. (S) On the counterterrorism front, during the past two months that the Saudis have enjoyed significant successes against terrorists in the Kingdom. Concerning regional security issues, Saudi Arabia is an active and mostly cooperative ally on such challenges as Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran. Saudi leaders continue to be deeply ooncerned about developments in Iraq, particularly the potential for Iranian influence and predominance. Since December 15, Saudi civilian and military officials have missed few opportunities to convey to Embassy officials and USG visitors their view that Iraq post-December 15 is increasingly susceptible to Iranian influence and, therefore, threatening to the region. Beyond Iraq, the Saudis are most anxious about Iran's potential to become a nuclear power, and the regional power imbalances this would portend, which they believe would make them and other oil-rich gulf monarchies particularly vulnerable to Iranian nuclear blackmail. ¶3. (C) On Iraq generally, the Saudis look to play a constructive role and utilize their influence both bilaterally and through regional organizations like the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC). The Saudis support Iraqi unity and have publicly supported the dialogue among Iraq's various factions, including at the November 18-21 Cairo Conference on Iraqi Reconciliation. During the Cairo conference, Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal played a pivotal role in keeping the contentious participants working towards a common agenda. Al-Faisal recently commented that after the successful Cairo Conference he feels somewhat more optimistic about the Iraqi political process. ¶4. (S) Saudi Arabia, while careful to maintain an "equal distance" from all groups in Iraq and avoid the perception of advancing solely Sunni interests, tried to encourage Iraq's Sunni political class to organize and actively participate in the parliamentary elections on December 15. In addition, the Saudis have pledged one billion dollars to Iraqi reconstruction and are actively negotiating with the Iraqi government and international financial bodies for significant relief on the $25 billion dollar-plus Iraqi debt to Saudi Arabia accumulated under Saddam Hussein. ¶5. (S) POINTS TO MAKE: -- The United States is pleased by the electoral process that took place in Iraq on December 15. For the first time in recent memory. The Iraqi people, not a dictator, played a key role in determining their future. The elections of December 15 were positive events for the people of Iraq and the region. -- We are aware that the elections of December 15 were the beginning of a larger process, and not an end in themselves, in determining the future of Iraq. We believe that the Iraqi people, encouraged and supported by their friends in the region and the world, can develop a country that will guarantee them peace, economic and political well-being, and stability for themselves and the region. -- Saudi Arabia has a played a key role in encouraging the Iraqi people to seize the initiative and establish such a country. The enouragement you have give to the Sunnis and other Iraqis, as well as the generous reconstruction aid you have pledged to the Iraqi people, have facilitate what we are confident will be a positive outcome on the road to Iraqi freedom and self-determination. -- We hope that Saudi Arabia will continue to engage with the people of Iraq, and make this outcome a reality. GFOELLER