GOB OFFICIAL: FREEDOM FOR ASSK "INEVITABLE"

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000861 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/24/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL BM ASSK SUBJECT: GOB OFFICIAL: FREEDOM FOR ASSK "INEVITABLE" REF: A. RANGOON 860 ¶B. RANGOON 814 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: A senior MFA official told Emboffs it is "inevitable" that the SPDC generals will release ASSK in order to include her in the national reconciliation process and achieve a durable solution to the country's political crisis. However, while the official's observations are logical, we continue to assess that the illogical SPDC is unlikely to release ASSK or other senior opposition leaders anytime soon. End Summary ¶2. (C) During a July 22 courtesy call on Denzil Abel, the MFA's Director for International Organizations (ref A),A/DCM and P/E officer pressed for the release of political opposition leaders Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK),U Tin Oo, and Hkun Htun Oo--observing that their prolonged detention would continue to hamper progress on a host of bilateral and multilateral issues of importance to the GOB. ¶3. (C) Abel, clearly uncomfortable at having to respond to issues involving ASSK, offered that in order to achieve a durable solution to Burma's political crisis it is inevitable that "they" (SPDC generals) will have to make the national conciliation process "an inclusive one"--predicting that at some undefined point ASSK would be released and consulted. ¶4. (C) We also noted that recent releases of political prisoners (ref B) were a step in the right direction, but that Burma needed to release all political prisoners, including ASSK, in order to achieve progress in engaging such institutions as the UNGA, the UNCHR, the ILO, and ASEAN. Abel acknowledged this point and said that (the SPDC) "can't continue to operate in a vacuum" without the country's political opposition. ¶5. (C) Comment: Abel's comments are noteworthy given the rarity that GOB officials will address with us the current detention of ASSK and other high-profile democracy leaders. However, he and his senior MFA colleagues, including the Foreign Minister, are not decision makers and have little influence with the SPDC regime. His conclusion that the generals will have to deal eventually with ASSK is a logical one. However, we continue to assess that, despite external pressure, the interminably illogical SPDC believes there is no significant incentive in releasing ASSK--and no particular disincentive in keeping her detained. End Comment. Martinez