BURMA HOLDS IT CARDS ON ASEAN CHAIR ISSUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000825 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BM SUBJECT: BURMA HOLDS IT CARDS ON ASEAN CHAIR ISSUE REF: RANGOON 481 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: According to senior GOB officials, Burma will not announce a decision on the 2006 ASEAN chair issue in Vientiane and will approach the annual ASEAN meetings with an "ambiguous" position, apparently intent to keep open its options and kick the can further down the road until at least the ASEAN Summit in December in Malaysia. It is entirely possible that top SDPC generals could, as they have done on other policy issues, instruct their own envoys to renege on alleged assurances to ASEAN leaders that Burma will take a pass on the chair. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On July 12, U Thaung Tun, MFA Director General for Political Affairs, told A/DCM that Burmese delegates to upcoming ASEAN meetings in Vientiane would be "ambiguous" on Burma's position regarding assumption of the ASEAN chair in ¶2006. He said that no formal GOB decision would be announced and that the international community would have to "read between the lines" to ascertain the SPDC's intentions. ¶3. (C) U Thaung Tun also said that he had been tapped as Burma's next envoy to the Philippines and he expected to head out to Manila within the next two months. He said he had concluded, though he had not been explicitly told, it was likely that the SPDC generals will permit him to take a foreign posting only because Burma would not assume the ASEAN chair in 2006 and would therefore not require his presence in Rangoon. ¶4. (C) Thaung Tun added that since the chair would rotate next to the Philippines, it was significant that he was being posted to Manila. (Note: U Thaung Tun, a former DCM in Washington, has been the MFA's DG for political affairs for five years and served as an increasingly trusted aide and interpreter for the SPDC's top generals. However, he admits that like most any career civil servant he is not privy to SPDC decision-making. End Note.) ¶5. (C) Also on July 12, the Bangladesh Defense Attache told A/DCM that he had that evening pressed Foreign Minister Nyan, a former acquaintance at an Indian Command and Staff College, on the ASEAN chair issue. The FM replied that he was "not a decision maker" and would attend the Vientiane ASEAN meetings "only for discussions" and not to make any announcement on the ASEAN chair issue. The FM intimated, according to the Bangladesh DATT, that the SPDC generals had not made any conclusions and would probably have nothing to say publicly until at least the December ASEAN Summit in Malaysia. ¶6. (C) Comment: It would appear that the GOB will go to Vientiane leaving open all of its options on the ASEAN chair issue. As we observed in reftel, past regime practice portends an eleventh hour decision--and such a decision rests solely with SPDC Chairman Than Shwe and Vice Chairman Maung Aye. They will not bow out in reaction to international pressure or indirect prodding from other ASEAN members. It is entirely possible that the top generals could, as they have done on other issues, instruct Prime Minister Soe Win, FM Nyan Win, and other regime envoys to renege on alleged private assurances to ASEAN leaders that Burma will take a pass on the chair. End Comment. Martinez