NLD: "WE HAVE LOST CONTACT WITH ASSK"

C O N F I D E N T I A L RANGOON 000060 SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/12/2014 TAGS: PGOV PHUM BM NLD ASSK SUBJECT: NLD: "WE HAVE LOST CONTACT WITH ASSK" REF: A. RANGOON 20 ¶B. 04 RANGOON 1612 AND PREVIOUS ¶C. 04 RANGOON 1591 AND PREVIOUS ¶D. 04 RANGOON 1563 ¶E. 04 RANGOON 1647 Classified By: COM Carmen Martinez for Reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary: As a result of the regime's increasing restrictions on Aung San Suu Kyi, NLD party leaders report they now have "absolutely no contact" with the detained democracy leader. Nothing would indicate ASSK is facing imminent danger. However, the NLD's information is troubling in that the party cannot assess her well-being and has no ability to consult with her on strategy, a further blow to the pro-democracy movement. Meanwhile the regime announced that the National Convention will reconvene on February 17, but has failed to communicate with the NLD or respond directly to the party's December letter to Chairman Than Shwe. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On January 13, P/E chief and Poloff called on NLD CEC members, including Chairman U Aung Shwe and Secretary U Lwin, to discuss recent developments. U Aung Shwe said that party leaders no longer have any means to communicate with Aung San Suu Kyi at her University Avenue compound, where she remains under house arrest. Under new arrangements imposed by GOB authorities in late December 2004 (ref B),ASSK's two household companions are prohibited from departing the compound to purchase food and other supplies (designated ASSK supporters are allowed to deliver provisions to an on-site Special Branch (SB) officer, but are not allowed to communicate with the compound residents). ¶3. (C) Furthermore, U Aung Shwe said that the NLD had learned that ASSK's personal physician, whose access to ASSK was recently reduced from daily to weekly visits (ref C),is now further limited to only one visit per month. (Note: Information about the physician's access is difficult to verify as he is no longer permitted to meet with NLD leaders or with foreign diplomats. End Note.) "We now have absolutely no contact with ASSK," said U Aung Shwe, "and we remain concerned about her, particularly her health." According to mid-level NLD sources, the physician most recently visited ASSK o/a January 6, but was then hauled in for questioning by SB officers over the weekend of January 8-9. ¶4. (C) On a separate issue, we noted that the SPDC had announced that it intends to reconvene the National Convention (NC) on February 17. U Lwin said that the NLD had received no direct overtures from the regime on any matter, including either the NC or a December NLD letter to Chairman Than Shwe (ref D). U Lwin observed that the political situation remains in a status quo: the SPDC intends to plow ahead without the NLD (or the pro-democracy ethnic parties) and secure a new constitution that enshrines a preeminent governing role for the military. He added that the only unresolved component in the NC process remains whether the ethnic cease-fire groups (CFGs) agree to participate and sign off on a new constitution. ¶5. (C) Comment: We have no information that would indicate that ASSK is facing any imminent danger or increased risk. We have made it abundantly clear to the GOB that the regime is solely responsible for her safety and security, most recently with the Home Minister in December (ref E). However, the NLD's information that ASSK is now facing even tighter restrictions is troubling. In addition to irregular and unreliable information about her well-being, the party does not at the moment have the ability to consult with her about party strategy and pertinent developments, a severe blow to the pro-democracy movement which relies on her leadership and decisions. As for the National Convention and the cease-fire groups, we believe it is highly probable that the SPDC announced a date to reconvene with a clear indication that at least the major CFGs intend to return to the table. End Comment. Martinez