ECUADOR: POLITICAL SITUATION UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000895 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC EC SUBJECT: ECUADOR: POLITICAL SITUATION UPDATE REF: A. QUITO 885 ¶B. QUITO 879 ¶C. QUITO 872 ¶D. QUITO 871 ¶E. QUITO 870 ¶1. (C) Summary: On April 22, the new Minister of Defense Anibal Solon Espinosa named a new military high command. The Embassy has begun outreach to the new government's Cabinet, though not at the Ambassadorial level. Congress is expected to reconvene on April 26, possibly in Guayaquil. There was a small protest at the palace the evening of April 21, as well as protests on April 22 at the Brazilian Ambassador's residence, but no violence. End Summary. Security -------------- ¶2. (U) There was a protest against the Congress (of approximately 100 demonstrators) at the Presidential palace the evening of April 21. Though vocal, the protest against Congress was peaceful and ended without incident. There is a group of protesters (approximately 70) at the Brazilian Ambassador's residence blocking the road. Radicals are rumored to be waiting for Congress to reconvene to resume protests. Country clearances will be reviewed on a case by case basis. Peace Corps has ceased its stand-fast; approximately 20 PCVs are scheduled to travel to Quito beginning April 25. Ex-Government -------------- ¶3. (U) While trying to leave the country on a flight to Miami from the Quito airport, former Presidential Secretary Carlos Polit was prevented from flying by an angry group, which included ex-VP Blasco Penaherrera who was departing to defend the new GOE before the OAS. Former Minister of Trade Ivonne Baki has not been allowed to re-enter her former offices to retrieve her passports. Other officials associated with the former government have requested visas, which we are reviewing case by case. Congress -------------- ¶4. (C) Congress plans to reconvene on April 26, possibly in Guayaquil to prevent security concerns in Quito. We are hearing from PRIAN contacts that they will try to call for new elections. The government hopes to pass judicial reforms with the support of the majority which dismissed Gutierrez. Military/Police Actions -------------- ¶5. (C) After requesting a list of all active duty flag officers, new Minister of Defense General Anibal Solon Espinosa replaced the military's high command on April 22. The new Commander's for the Ecuadorian High Command as of April 22 are: Vice Admiral Manuel Elias Zapater Ramos, CHOD; Lieutenant General Cesar Ubillus Verga, Army Commander; Rear Admiral Hector Germanico Holguin Darquea, Navy Commander; Brigadier General Edmundo Baquero Madera, Air Force Commander. ¶6. (SBU) A good Embassy contact, General Jose Antonio Vinueza Jarrin, was named the new police commander on April ¶22. He is a former chief of anti-narcotic affairs and personnel. Embassy Actions -------------- ¶7. (C) Foreign Minister Antonio Parra briefed OAS member diplomatic missions (including DCM) late April 22 on the official GOE explanation for Gutierrez' removal. Blame rested with Gutierrez, he said, who triggered destabilizing events by revamping the Supreme Court last December. In defending GOE actions, Parra repeatedly made references to Bolivia, implying that Bolivia set the precedent. Parra said that a group of distinguished jurists from Ecuador would make Ecuador's case on April 22 before the OAS Permanent Council. They are: constitutional expert Gil Barragan Romero; former FMs Edgar Teran and Mario Aleman; and former Vice President Blasco Penaherrera. ¶8. (C) In a meeting with PolChief on April 21, new Minister of Government Mauricio Gandara expressed his concern that the OAS and USG recognize the legitimacy of the new government to ensure stability. Subsecretary of Government Juan Carlos Guzman was also present at the meeting. PolChief also met with Presidential Administration Secretary Luis Herreria and Presidential Secretary General Carlos Munoz on April 22. (Septel) ¶9. (C) EconChief spoke with Central Bank President Mauricio Pareja on April 22. Pareja expressed his deep concern over statements made by the new Minister of Finance Rafael Correa. Correa made public statements on April 21 that foreign debt needed to be renegotiated, that Ecuador's oil revenue needed to be spent on social programs, that Ecuador would be completely sovereign in its relations with the IMF, and that any free trade agreement would be submitted to a referendum (where it would most likely be voted down.) Pareja said he already noted some capital flight on April 21, and there would be more. Pareja said if Correa continued making similar public statements, there could be serious financial damage over the next week. Third Party Opinions -------------- ¶10. (SBU) AID spoke with NGO representatives Simon Jaramillo of Citizen Participation and Cornelio Marchan of Esquel Foundation on April 21 who were pleased with recent events, but differed on early elections. ¶11. (SBU) Guadalupe Mantilla, owner of Quito's daily of record, El Comercio newspaper, expressed to the PAO concerns about the constitutionality of Gutierrez' departure and the impact on the country's image abroad. If Ecuador wants foreign investment, she said, people cannot continue to manipulate the Constitution. Mantilla believed Palacio was weak and would not be able to govern. In her opinion, Congress should find a way to dissolve itself and hold new elections. Those attacking the Congress and Ministry of Social Welfare were not the same people who filled the marches, she said; they were thugs led by the left-wing MPD party and radical student groups. She approved of the Embassy's concerned, but cautious public profile. Business Community -------------- ¶12. (SBU) FCS called AmCham leaders on April 21 who did not view the new Cabinet members favorably. They concurred that the new government was very nationalist and center left. They believed that this grouping could target USG interests in retribution for past USG support for Gutierrez. Next Steps -------------- ¶13. (C) The Embassy will be taking the following next steps: --AMB will hold a town hall meeting on April 25. --DAO will reach out to the new military command. --POL will continue to meet with members of the new Cabinet. POL will report further bio info on new Ministers. --AID will continue outreach to NGOs and contractors. --AID will lead a Mission effort to plan future programs to strengthen Ecuador's broken democracy. --FCS will continue outreach to the US and Ecuadorian business communities. --RSO continues to review security measures. KENNEY