ECUADOR: POLITICAL SITUATION UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000852

SIPDIS

PLEASE PASS TO USOAS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV ASEC EC
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: POLITICAL SITUATION UPDATE

REF: QUITO 842


1. (C) Summary: The political situation remains fluid in
the wake of President Lucio Gutierrez' lifting of the state
of emergency. In an emergency session on April 17, Congress
unanimously revoked its December 2004 reorganization of the
Supreme Court and adjourned until April 19, when it is
expected to debate how to choose a new Court.
Anti-government protests occurred on April 17 and are
expected to continue. In Guayaquil and surrounding
provinces, Mayor Jaime Nebot has organized a mobile protest
on April 18 in defense of democracy; pro-government marches
will also take place today. Ex-president Abdala Bucaram, a
destabilizing force, has been vocal in his defense of the
president. Quito opposition leaders have called for
Gutierrez's resignation and possible impeachment. Vice
President Alfredo Palacio condemned Gutierrez' declaration of
a state of emergency, and has courted the opposition.
Chilean President Ricardo Lagos canceled his visit to Ecuador
at GOE request. Embassy and CG Guayaquil outreach to all
sectors continues. End Summary.

Congress Terminates Supreme Court; To Discuss Replacement
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2. (U) On April 17, Congress President Omar Quintana
convened a special session to debate vacating the Supreme
Court decreed terminated by President Gutierrez. PRIAN
leader Alvaro Noboa called for his legislators to boycott the
session to avoid further blame should Congress fail to
resolve the issue. After seven hours of debate, Congress
voted unanimously (89-0) to nullify its December 8, 2004
resolution installing the current Supreme Court. The new law
also says the prior magistrates will not be reinstated.
Congress will meet at 10 a.m. on April 19 to debate alternate
methods to select a new court.

Reactions to the State of Emergency
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3. (U) Ex-president Abdala Bucaram has been busy, making a
radio address on April 18 to rant about the "self-interested
oligarchy" that has continuously violated the Constitution
since 1997. Bucaram decried the people's anti-government
protests over the past several days and credited Gutierrez'
leadership for the unanimous congressional vote (the first
time in 20 years). Press reported on April 17 that in
declaring the state of emergency, Gutierrez was following
Bucaram's suggestion of how to respond to popular protests.
Bucaram reportedly also suggested dissolving Congress, and
arresting coup-plotters, if necessary, to prevent the
unlawful destitution of the Supreme Court.


4. (U) Government opponents Quito Mayor Moncayo and
Pichincha Prefect Ramiro Gonzalez reacted strongly to the
state of emergency announcement, with Moncayo calling
Gutierrez a dictator and calling for his resignation.
Moncayo encouraged Quitenos to continue protesting
(non-violently). Gonzalez echoed Moncayo's anti-government
sentiments, and called on citizens to blocks all entrances
and exits to Quito (the blockages never happened).


5. (U) Vice President Palacio, never shy to distance himself
from his president, announced on April 16 that Gutierrez is a
dictator, and blamed him for the "chaos" the country has been
experiencing. Palacio emphasized that the people of Quito
have experienced "brutal repression," which must be
investigated and punished, and called on the President to end
the state of emergency.

Lagos Cancels Visit
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6. (U) In response to a request from the GOE, Chilean MFA
announced on April 16 that he had postponed his upcoming
visit to Ecuador. Lagos will visit Brazil and Venezuela as
planned and stop in Bogota instead of Quito. He would
reschedule the visit to Ecuador once the political situation
permits.

Upcoming Street Protests
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7. (SBU) A pro-government caravan in Guayaquil will start at
3 p.m. today followed by a larger mobile protest caravan
convoked by Guayaquil mayor Jaime Nebot. Teacher unions and
university students have announced their participation in
Nebot's caravan. Here in Quito, a large protest has been
convoked for the evening of April 19 in a park. Thus far,
protests have been dispersed in several locations. The April
19 protests is intended to unify these and demonstrate the
extent of citizen discontent.

Embassy Outreach
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8. (C) Embassy outreach to promote dialogue continues:

-- The Ambassador met separately with President Gutierrez,
the Chief of the Armed Forces, and spoke with DefMin Herrera
on April 18 (SepTel).

-- The Embassy and CG Guayaquil will continue to encourage
dialogue and restraint on the government, the opposition, the
military, and civil society.

-- Embassy outreach to several indigenous groups indicates no
immediate plan to join demonstrations in large numbers.

-- We are also reaching out to other members of the dipcorps
to promote stability and dialogue. The Ambassador met
separately with the Japanese and Spanish Ambassadors on April
18, the DCM met with the Honduran Ambassador, and PolOffs
will meet with the UN and other interested embassies.

-- The cancellation of the Lagos visit was unfortunate. We
are encouraging friendly embassies to consider calls from
their leaders to reinforce the dialogue message.

-- CG Guayaquil will contact VP Palacio at a lower level, to
reopen relatively dormant lines of communication.

-- We see a possible role for an OAS political mission or a
UN mission.

-- AID maintains contact with key citizens groups involved in
protests.

-- ECON is reaching out to private sector groups.

-- POL is monitoring developments in the opposition and
Congress.

Comment
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10. (C) Congress took a relatively easy step forward
yesterday by vacating the discredited court. Choosing the
members of the replacement Court will be harder. Thus far,
Congressional action has not noticeably reduced political
tensions.
KENNEY