GUTIERREZ TO CARACAS: WILL HE OR WON'T HE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000661 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV EC VE SUBJECT: GUTIERREZ TO CARACAS: WILL HE OR WON'T HE? REF: QUITO 652 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Arnold Chacon, Reasons 1.4 (b) 1.... id: 29441 date: 3/23/2005 16:59 refid: 05QUITO661 origin: Embassy Quito classification: CONFIDENTIAL destination: 05QUITO652 header: This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. -------------- header ends -------------- C O N F I D E N T I A L QUITO 000661 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV EC VE SUBJECT: GUTIERREZ TO CARACAS: WILL HE OR WON'T HE? REF: QUITO 652 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Arnold Chacon, Reasons 1.4 (b) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: For a month the Embassy has heard rumors that Ecuador President Lucio Gutierrez would travel to Caracas and meet Hugo Chavez. Confirmation has proved difficult, however; Gutierrez himself swears the trip dates have slipped until autumn. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) Guayaquil's El Universo newspaper wrote February 26 that President Hugo Chavez had informed Venezuelan press that his Ecuadorian counterpart was seeking dates for a Venezuela trip. Later press accounts claimed Gutierrez, while in Caracas, would focus on greater bilateral cooperation in the petroleum sector. Editorialists, however, quickly offered the "real" motivation behind the president's Venezuela travel: pressuring Washington. Under their theory, Gutierrez, annoyed at the Ambassador's public statements of concern over Ecuador's political blood-letting, had floated his cozying up to Chavez as a means to tell the USG to back off. ¶3. (C) Confusion soon set in. Over lunch March 18, Spanish Ambassador to Ecuador Juan Maria Alzina informed the Ambassador that, according to GoE Foreign Minister Patricio Zuquilanda, there was no Gutierrez-Chavez get-together planned. Zuquilanda had told Alzina the Caracas meeting was pure Chavez misinformation. Other Embassy sources refuted the FM's assertions, however, claiming that presidential Venezuela trip planning was well underway. Further, Presidential Legal Advisor Carlos Larrea informed Poloff March 22 that Gutierrez would travel to Caracas the first week of April. The visit was purely commercial/technical in nature, as Ecuador sought Venezuelan investment and expertise in increasing petroleum production and profitability. Larrea described the Chavez-Gutierrez relationship as cordial but not close. Washington should not worry over the visit, he continued, as Gutierrez did not support his Venezuelan counterpart's anti-US, anti-"imperialist" ideology. ¶4. (C) Under the guise of wishing the president a happy birthday, the Ambassador telephoned Gutierrez March 22. She focused on points of "great USG concern," the upcoming UNHRC Cuba resolution (Reftel) and his reported trip to Caracas. Gutierrez had no plans to visit Caracas in April, although he was considering travel in October or November. To follow up, the Ambassador sought and obtained a private meeting with the president, tentatively scheduled for March 28. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: Chavez long has pressured Gutierrez to visit Caracas, intimating that a refusal was tantamount to opposing Latin American unity. The Ecuadorian has so far resisted, partly from concern of annoying the United States and partly because the two are not friends (Embassy contacts claim Gutierrez was furious over Chavez's anti-US, anti-Gutierrez antics during the June 2004 OASGA in Quito). Recent press has painted Ecuador the odd man out in South America's turn to the left, however, and perhaps pushed the president into accepting a perfunctory Venezuela visit couched in technical/commercial terms. Realizing we cannot control Gutierrez's travel plans and seeing potential blow-back in the attempt, we nonetheless have counseled presidential staff to consider Caracas visit optics and have pushed hard for meetings with Venezuelan opposition and civil society. The Ambassador will echo this message in her upcoming call on Gutierrez. END COMMENT. CHACON =======================CABLE ENDS============================