ANOTHER MINISTER OF GOVERNMENT PACKS BAGS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000434

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EC
SUBJECT: ANOTHER MINISTER OF GOVERNMENT PACKS BAGS

REF: 04 QUITO 2959


1. SUMMARY: Long expected, Minister of Government Jaime
Damerval quit February 21, citing as reasons his
disagreements with President Lucio Gutierrez over the manner
and scope of political reform in Ecuador. As a political
lightning rod and vocal enemy of the opposition, especially
the Social Christian Party (PSC) and leader Leon
Febres-Cordero, Damerval's departure hopefully portends a
Gutierrez committed to dialogue. The appointment of his most
likely successor might indicate otherwise. END SUMMARY.


2. The minister of government portfolio includes both
"interior minister" responsibilities -- oversight of the
police, for example -- and political liaison/opposition
outreach duties. In this nation of dozens of parties, it is
the latter that makes the job difficult and keeps the
incumbent buffing his resume; Damerval becomes the Gutierrez
administration's fourth ex-minister of government in 25
months.


3. His downfall began almost before taking office November

8. Gutierrez had tapped political pit bull Damerval to
assume command of his impeachment defense, believing
predecessor Raul Baca's conciliatory strategy too soft to
stave off the president's numerous and potent enemies.
Baca's campaign was to prove successful the next day,
however, as a plurality of congressman refused to endorse the
opposition's charges and the impeachment essentially died.
Talking heads immediately began questioning Damerval's
utility to the administration.


4. Perhaps not realizing the battle won, the minister
continued to pick fights he should have avoided. The most
visible was a public showdown with popular Guayaquil Mayor
Jaime Nebot over the municipality's intent to employ a
private security force to confront ever-rising criminality.
Nebot responded by demanding and later leading a massive
January 26 march in favor of greater Guayaquil autonomy; its
subtext was rejection of Damerval's high-handedness. Opinion
leaders called the public outpouring a defeat for the
president.


5. Rumors of Damerval's downfall began swirling before
Christmas, with talk he would be the first victim of
Gutierrez's latest Cabinet "oxygenation." That housecleaning
never materialized. Gutierrez instead rode his newfound
"institutional majority" to a string of political victories
and felt no need to placate the opposition by sacking
Damerval. The minister of government's relations with the
president became strained, however, as Gutierrez increasingly
assumed control over Damerval's coveted political reforms.


6. Reportedly the men rarely conversed. The breaking point
appeared to be Damerval's comments disparaging the
Congressional majority's December decision to sack the
Supreme Court and pack it with political appointees. Media
February 22 reprinted the leaked contents of a Ministry of
Government bulletin which asserted that Ecuador awaited
"great dishonor to its international reputation" should the
current judicial impasse continue.


7. The Embassy obtained a copy of Damerval's resignation
letter. In it, the ex-minister claimed he had attempted to
quit in January, but remained on station at the president's
request. Eventually, however, his discomfort with
Gutierrez's "Consulta Popular" -- the referendum with which
the president hoped to effect long-term political and
judicial reform -- became untenable. Damerval considered his
boss's proposed solution too slow, and its dependence on
Congressional approval a mistake. He favored instead an
alternative, quicker process originally proposed by former
President Gustavo Noboa.


8. Media speculated February 22 that Administration
Secretary General Xavier Ledesma would succeed the irascible

SIPDIS
Damerval. In a same day telcon, Legal Advisor Carlos Larrea
confirmed their predictions. Gutierrez had only to determine
Ledesma's replacement, as the president sought to announce
both changes concurrently. Presidential Adviser Oscar Ayerve
and Larrea himself were seeking that position.


9. COMMENT: That Damerval lasted four months in the
minister of government hotseat is testament to his
tenaciousness. Gutierrez had identified his "hammer" in
October, when all signs pointed to a long and messy
impeachment. The battle rapidly won, the president, out of
loyalty or otherwise, kept Damerval despite the latter's
one-speed-forward approach. By sacking him now Gutierrez
gains a tactical victory, pleasing both administration
officials and opposition leaders tired of conflict and
disposed to dialogue.


10. Likely Damerval replacement Ledesma is a regular and
close Embassy contact. Combative, stubborn, and with
populist tendencies, we worry he might prove as despised and
distrusted as his predecessor. Nonetheless, should he gain
office we will schedule an early call, both to press for
political detente and to promote key USG law enforcement
initiatives like the fight against TIP.
Chacon