GUTIERREZ RETURNS TO JAIL, PALACIO SOWS UNCERTAINTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 002359 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: TEN YEARS TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL EC SUBJECT: GUTIERREZ RETURNS TO JAIL, PALACIO SOWS UNCERTAINTY REF: QUITO 2348 Classified By: PolChief Erik Hall for reason 1.4 (b&d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Ex-president Lucio Gutierrez returned to Ecuador on October 14 and was promptly arrested and incarcerated in Quito. Perhaps more destabilizing was an announcement the same day by President Alfredo Palacio proposing a national constituent assembly over congressional opposition. On October 17 Palacio sent the assembly proposal directly to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, making an end run around Congress. While some civil society groups and applauded the proposal, most political parties have reacted negatively. Palacio's insistence on a reform agenda without consensus could put his presidency at risk, and his latest tactic makes him vulnerable to charges of flouting the constitution. End Summary. Gutierrez Returns -------------- ¶2. (U) Gutierrez arrived in Manta at approximately 1930 local time, by chartered aircraft from Bogota. A crowd of approximately 500 supporters that had gathered earlier outside the Manta airport was kept from the airport by the police, and by the time of Gutierrez' arrival numbered around 200, according to press reports. On arrival at the military side of the airport, Gutierrez, his former aide Fausto Cobo, and his brother Gilmar Gutierrez were arrested by authorities on charges of sedition, put on a military aircraft and transported to the Garcia Moreno prison in Quito, arriving around 22:00. In Quito another group of 200 Gutierrez supporters had spent the day marching and being denied access to the park in front of the palace. Upon his arrival in Quito, Gutierrez and Cobo were assigned to a normal cell in the maximum security prison for common criminals. A series of Gutierrez government officials visited throughout the weekend, smuggling out video recordings from the prison. A march to the jail by Gutierrez supporters on October 17 attracted only 20 people, according to the police. ¶3. (U) Gutierrez' lawyers announced they would request habeas corpus to release Gutierrez from preventive detention. Under Ecuadorian law, this request must be made to the mayor in the place of detention, in this case Quito mayor Paco Moncayo, a strong opponent of Gutierrez' rule. The lawyers also announced they would request the judge in the Gutierrez case to drop the charges against him for lack of proof that his statements abroad had undermined the security of the state. Meanwhile, press reported that prosecutors were formulating new charges against Gutierrez for a range of crimes while in office, for presentation to the new Supreme Court once it is conformed. For his part, Gutierrez said he would not leave prison unless he was exonerated. Gutierrez opponent Leon Febres Cordero claimed Gutierrez left Colombia under threat from the FARC. Palacio Calls for Reform -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On October 13, some Congressional leaders and cabinet members discussed Gutierrez' possible return informally, agreeing to consider declaring a political truce over the President's reform agenda. President Palacio, however, spurned the offer by publicly announcing that he would propose a referendum calling a national constituent assembly to consider political reforms. On October 17, Palacio sent his assembly proposal directly to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, a move which some in Congress charged was unconstitutional. Palacio justified the move under article 104 of the constitution, which allows the president to convoke a referendum when, in his opinion, it deals with issues of "transcendental importance" which do not reform the constitution. ¶5. (U) Palacio's proposal consists of a one-question referendum, proposed for December 18, which would ask the public whether they authorize the convocation of a national constituent assembly to restructure the Ecuadorian state under a new constitution. It would be established in the following manner: 100 members, elected proportionally by province in the first trimester of 2006, including 50 party representatives and 50 members of civil society, excluding present government officials or anyone elected to government posts within the last four years, and, notably, all dismissed ex-presidents. The assembly would finish its deliberations before regularly scheduled national elections in 2006. ¶6. (U) Reaction to Palacio's announcement was mixed. Social groups who had supported the ouster of Gutierrez praised it as fulfilling the reform mandate of the people. Independent presidential candidate Leon Roldos, leading early presidential polls with 30% support, came out in favor. So did the fringe leftist MPD party, and the indigenous party Pachakutik, with the proviso that the FTA with the U.S. be put up for debate in an assembly. ¶7. (U) Meanwhile, president of Congress Wilfredo Lucero and most political party leaders condemned the president's move, including Democratic Left president Guillermo Landazuri and Social Christian party leader Leon Febres Cordero, with Landazuri lamenting Palacio's rejection of former Government Minister Molestina's reform package and declaring that the Congress would pass its own constitutional reforms. ID congressional leader Jorge Sanchez told PolChief on October 17 that the ID would react to Palacio's proposal in congress on October 18, but stopped short of threatening Palacio's impeachment. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) By attempting an end run around large party leaders and Congress, Palacio risks his own presidency, and is aware of that risk. Acting Minister of Government Galo Chiriboga stated as much, saying the president was willing to place his own fate at the hands of the assembly. The Ambassador has privately stressed to Palacio the risks of this gambit, but his frustration with Congress and stubborn allegiance to what he sees as the principles of the movement that brought him to power has prevailed. ¶9. (C) The electoral tribunal is headed by Febres Cordero's PSC and composed of representatives from seven political parties. Of these, Pachakutik and MPD already support the assembly, and another, the PRIAN of banana magnate Alvaro Noboa, is wavering. Noboa is currently second in presidential polling, at around 15% support, and a two-time second place finisher. A constituent assembly would open the possibility of calling early elections, which favors Noboa and Roldos, the early front-runners (meanwhile, the PSC and ID have not even announced candidates). A fourth vote in favor could come from the Citizens New Country group ("Ciudadanos Nuevo Pais"),led by two-time presidential candidate Freddy Ehlers. The PSC, ID and PRE solidly oppose an assembly. ¶10. (C) To convince four members of the PSC-headed tribunal to approve the referendum will probably require incentives from the government or strong public support from civil society. Thus far the public has been unmoved. Polls show them focused more on economic than political questions, and pro-reform street action has yet to appear. Gutierrez' presence adds an unpredictable factor to the mix. Palacio's insistence on a constituent assembly has provoked party leaders, but Gutierrez' destabilizing presence has mitigated their resentment of Palacio. Despite rumored internal divisions, the military has not taken anti-government action. Suggested Press Guidance on Constituent Assembly Proposal -------------- -------------- ¶11. (U) If asked for USG views on a constituent assembly, we recommend: -- repeating our commitment to help Ecuador strengthen democratic institutions, but -- declaring this to be an internal matter for Ecuadorians to resolve, and -- expressing the view that the Ecuadorian people deserve a democratic system which benefits all. JEWELL