SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 PRETORIA 000949 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/S/JDIFFILY; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL USTR FOR COLEMAN LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF SUBJECT: SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER March 4 2005 ISSUE ¶1. Summary. Each week, AMEmbassy Pretoria publishes an economic newsletter based on South African press reports. Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government. Topics of this week's newsletter are: - January Trade Deficit Widens; - Mboweni Comments on SADC Regional Integration Targets; - Higher State Spending and Oil Prices May Dim Chance for Interest Rate Cuts; - Money Supply and Credit Growth Remains High in January; - Manufacturing Sector Shows Signs of Expansion in February; - February New Vehicle Sales Increase 32.5%; End Summary. JANUARY TRADE DEFICIT WIDENS -------------- ¶2. Preliminary figures released by South African Revenue Service show January's trade deficit reached R3.4 billion ($577 million, using 5.9 rands per dollar),much higher than the Bloomberg's survey median forecast of R1.3 billion. This was the ninth trade deficit in 10 months, with December's trade surplus of R2.8 billion being the only month of a positive trade balance. The current account deficit, measuring trade in goods and services, reached 2.3 percent of GDP in 2004 and the 2005 Budget Review expects it to reach 3.1 percent in 2005. January's trade deficit was primarily due to a 28.6 percent reduction in exports, falling to R20.5 billion compared to December's R28.6 billion. January's imports were 7.8 percent lower, at R23.8 billion compared to December's R25.8 billion. Exports of base metals, mineral products, precious stones and machinery explained the January's export decline; imports of mineral products and motor vehicles, aircraft and ships accounted for the import reduction. Source: Business Day, March 1; Standard Bank, Foreign Trade Alert, February 28. ¶3. Comment. The export sector was not a major source of South African growth in 2004. The rand has appreciated 39 percent against the dollar since 2002, leading to 2004 import growth far exceeding export growth. As a result of the strong rand and robust domestic demand in 2004, the value of South African imports increased by 18.6 percent due to increased imports of capital equipment. In 2004, the import shares of machinery, vehicles and mineral products were 26.1, 13.1, and 15.3 percent respectively. Machinery imports increased 12.8 percent, vehicle imports increased 34.5 percent, and imports of mineral products increased 41.9 percent. The value of exports increased by 7 percent, primarily due to exports of precious and base metals and mineral products. Textile exports declined by 20 percent and vehicle exports were stagnant, showing a decline of 0.2 percent in 2004. Following several months of trade deficits in 2004, most analyst expect continuing months of trade deficits in 2005. End comment. MBOWENI COMMENTS ON SADC REGIONAL INTEGRATION TARGETS -------------- -------------- ¶4. Following a meeting between Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) central bank governors and executives from the European Central Bank, South African Reserve Board Governor Tito Mboweni highlighted the importance of reaching convergence targets ahead of a planned monetary union in 2016. The 13 SADC member countries have agreed to achieve single digit inflation figures by 2008, 5 percent by 2012 and 3 percent by 2018. Convergence targets have been set on budget deficits, the nominal value of public debt, external reserves and the central bank credit. Planned SADC milestones include (1) a SADC free-trade zone by 2008; (2) a customs union by 2010; (3) a common market by 2015; and (4) monetary union by 2016. Mboweni hoped that SADC countries would declare their commitments to lower inflation publicly, and mentioned that Zimbabwean politics were having too great an effect on the performance of its economy. Source: Business Day, March 1. ¶5. Comment. The following table shows 2004 inflation in SADC members having inflation above single digits and highlights the extent of adjustment required to attain inflation convergence by 2008. Table 1. Selected SADC Member 2004 Consumer Price Inflation 2004 Consumer Price Inflation Angola 45.3% Malawi 11.5% Mozambique 12.7% Zambia 18% Zimbabwe 381.4% End comment. HIGHER STATE SPENDING AND OIL PRICES MAY DIM CHANCE FOR INTEREST RATE CUTS -------------- -------------- ¶6. The 2005 budget calls for a real 7.5 percent increase in government non-interest expenditures and extended R11 billion ($1.9 billion) in tax cuts to individuals, companies and small businesses. Government expenditure as a percent of GDP should reach 28.2 percent in 2005/06 compared to 26.6 percent in 2003/04, signaling continuing expansionary fiscal policy. The past two Monetary Policy Committee statements expressed concern about inflationary impacts of continuing strong consumer demand, postponing interest rate reductions despite improvement in consumer inflation. Increasing government expenditures, consumer demand along with rising oil prices puts inflationary concerns at the top of many economic analysts. Others argue that South Africa's increasing government expenditures are not cause for concern, as long as most of it is spent on infrastructure rather than consumption. Source: Business Day, February 28. MONEY SUPPLY AND CREDIT GROWTH REMAIN HIGH IN JANUARY -------------- -------------- ¶7. January money supply and credit growth continue to grow in double digits, not signaling a typical January slowdown. Demand for private sector credit increased by 15.2 percent, a 13-month high, compared to December's increase of 13.5 percent. The consumer credit categories (installment sales, mortgage and leasing finance) increased 23.6 percent compared to December's increase of 22.8 percent. M3 growth slowed to 12 percent compared to December's increase of 12.8 percent, primarily because of an increase in government deposits. Brait economist Colen Garrow pointed out that the lowest nominal interest rates in 24 years, R72 billion in income tax relief since 1995 and an increase in coverage of welfare and social security benefits contributed to the strong growth in credit. With rising oil prices, continued strong credit demand and signs of improved manufacturing output growth, most economic forecasters are now reluctant to predict future interest rate reductions by the South African Reserve Bank. Source: Business Day, March 2; Investec, Money Supply and Credit Update, March 1. MANUFACTURING SECTOR SHOWS SIGNS OF EXPANSION IN FEBRUARY -------------- -------------- ¶8. The Investec Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose above 50 in February signaling expansion in the manufacturing sector. The index reached 54.2, a much stronger indicator of manufacturing growth compared to January's level of 49.3. Business activity and new sales orders improved the most in February as consumer demand growth remained robust, while the employment index continued to show weakness. The employment index reached 48.9 in February, after January's 47.7, and it has remained below 50 for most of 2004. The survey's six- month expectations index worsened slightly, with the percentage of respondents expecting an improvement in general business conditions falling to 46 percent compared to January's 47 percent. The manufacturing sector contributes 16 percent of Gross Domestic Product and the strong rand has impacted its 2004 growth. Manufacturing output grew by 2.5 percent in the last quarter 2004, compared to 6.3 percent growth in the third quarter. Source: Business Day and Business Report, March 2. FEBRUARY NEW VEHICLE SALES INCREASE 32.5% -------------- ¶9. South African new vehicle sales in February 2005 increased by 32.5 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 42,832 units, compared to January's (y/y) growth of 20.9 percent. The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) at the beginning of this year expected growth slightly above 10 percent in 2005, but in the first two months, growth has in fact been 26.6 percent y/y. NAAMSA warned that the announcement in last week's 2005 Budget of changes to the car allowance taxation provisions and the planned changes to the fringe benefit tax treatment of company cars were expected to have an impact on demand patterns and in particular, the more expensive vehicle sector was likely to be negatively affected. All types of vehicles showed robust February growth. New car sales grew by 34.4 percent y/y, new light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales rose by 28.5 percent y/y, new medium commercial vehicle (MCV) sales grew by 49.5 percent, and new heavy commercial vehicle (HCV) sales grew by 16.5 percent. NAAMSA said positive consumer and business sentiment, stable interest rates and stable new vehicle prices, together with an expected improvement in the rate of growth in the South African economy for 2005 of over 4% provided conditions conducive to continued growth in new car and commercial vehicle sales during ¶2005. Source: I-Net Bridge, March 2. FRAZER