EU REFERENDUM DEFEATS INTENSIFY CZECH DOMESTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 000842

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/05/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECIN EZ EUN
SUBJECT: EU REFERENDUM DEFEATS INTENSIFY CZECH DOMESTIC
SQUABBLING

Classified By: Pol-Econ Counselor Mike Dodman for reasons 1.4 b+d


1. (C) Summary: Not surprisingly in a country where the
government has declared passage of the EU constitution the
reason for its existence, and whose President has staked out
a position as one of Europe's leading critics of the
agreement, the French and Dutch "no" votes have only
amplified domestic debate over the constitution. Czech
President Klaus is declaring the constitution dead and
trumpeting this at home and abroad as a "victory for
democracy and freedom." PM Paroubek, who has tried without
success to force Klaus to adhere to the GOCR's
pro-constitution policy when abroad, insists that the CR must
continue to move forward with its information campaign and a
future vote. At next week's EU Summit the Czechs intend to
propose that the deadline for approving the agreement be
extended. A decision to stop further progress on the
constitution will be a serious blow for the Paroubek
government. End summary.


2. (C) The Czech Republic today is the only EU member that
has not decided on either the format or the timing of a vote
on the EU constitution. Foreign observers may think that it
is the outspoken opposition of Czech President Vaclav Klaus
that is the main obstacle to progress. In fact, there is a
genuine political split in the CR, with the governing parties
in favor of the constitution, and the opposition Civic
Democrats and Communists firmly opposed. Despite opinion
polls showing that a majority of Czechs (and even a majority
of the Civic Democrats' supporters) favor the agreement, the
combination of the long political crisis this spring and the
constitutional requirement for a three-fifths majority vote
in parliament (either to call for a referendum or --
according to most analysts -- to approve the EU constitution
in parliament) have stymied Czech progress.


3. (C) Nonetheless, the constitution has been a political
football here, and was tied closely to the question of early
elections as a possible resolution to the spring political
stalemate. In the end, the coalition parties decided to
reconstitute their government and serve until next summer's
elections. The new government declared passage of the
constitution its overriding priority, and this became the
cause around which the three coalition parties -- battered by
months of infighting -- could rally. Prime Minister
Paroubek's early reputation as an energetic and focused
leader stems in part from his robust approach to launching a
long-overdue information campaign.


4. (C) Against this backdrop, it is perhaps no surprise that
the government has practically ignored the French and Dutch
"no" votes. PM Paroubek declared that they would have no
impact on Czech planning: the information campaign would
continue, and Czechs would continue with their ratification
process (notwithstanding the fact that no ratification
process has been agreed upon). The government meeting on
June 1 confirmed this position, but noted that modifications
may be necessary after the EU Summit; the government also
authorizing Paroubek to propose to the Summit that the
ratification process continue beyond 2006 to permit time for
repeat voting where necessary (Paroubek and his staff have
taken to citing the annex provision of the constitution that
EU leaders need to consult if up to one-fifth of Members have
"problems" with ratification). Petra Masinova, director of
the government office charged with handling the information
campaign, told us June 3 that planning is underway based on a
strategy approved May 18. The first stage will be
distribution of several chapters of the constitution as a
newspaper insert. She added, however, that no distribution
or other concrete steps are scheduled to take place before
the EU Summit.


5. (C) In addition to the predictable split between the
government and opposition -- with the Civic Democrats
proclaiming loudly that the EU constitution is dead and any
information campaign or referendum would be a waste of money
-- the "no" votes opened the first public rift within the
coalition since the Paroubek government was formed a month
ago. Christian Democratic leader Kalousek, supported by FM
Svoboda, publicly suggested that the government should
suspend all work on the information campaign until after the
EU Summit. Kalousek went on to suggest a meeting of all
mainstream political parties. In what has proven to be
Paroubek's style, he rejected the all-party meeting and
called together coalition leaders to confront the issue in
advance of the formal government meeting. According to
Paroubek aides, during this meeting Kalousek immediately
backed away from his proposals -- leaving FM Svoboda alone to
argue for a suspension (which some claim he pursued to show
his displeasure at having the information campaign housed
outside of the Foreign Ministry). In the end, the party
leaders accepted Paroubek's position, which was subsequently
unanimously approved by the cabinet.


6. (C) Comment: As many commentators noted, the Kalousek
proposal to suspend activity on the EU constitution until
after EU leaders have discussed the impact of the "no" votes
was probably the most sensible position. However, Kalousek's
choice of airing his suggestion in public before raising
within the coalition was an all-too-vivid reminder of the
public maneuvering that marked the spring coalition crisis;
so, too, his suggestion to meet with Civic Democrats, seen as
a sign of Kalousek currying favor with a possible future
coalition partner. Paroubek won the round by clearly
bringing Kalousek back into line, but the precedent is
troubling. Likewise the argument with President Klaus in
recent week over his frequent public statements during
foreign trips against the EU constitution, i.e., contrary to
GOCR policy. Klaus and Paroubek successfully resolved an
escalating dispute that saw the government threaten to cut
off funding for the President's travels. However, the
agreement to consult in advance of Klaus's travels appears to
have had little impact, judging from the President's critical
comments on the constitution during a June 2-3 visit to
Helsinki. Emboldened by the "no" votes, Klaus clearly
believes he has the upper hand in this argument.


7. (C) Comment continued: The Czech debate between now and
the June 15-16 EU Summit will likely continue to focus almost
entirely on domestic issues. Other than a few commentators
and the President, few here are yet actively discussing what
impact the "no" votes have for the future of Europe, the EU,
and transatlantic relations. For the Paroubek government,
the EU constitution is a lifeline. A decision at the EU
Summit to halt further progress on the constitution, besides
marking a huge victory for Klaus and the opposition, will be
a serious blow to the government and will likely prompt more
of the public divisions that were seen briefly this week.
HILLAS