CZECH REPUBLIC: IS RUNNING IN PLACE GOOD ENOUGH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRAGUE 001325 SIPDIS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED STATE FOR EUR/NCE ERIC FICHTE, EB/IFD, E DAN MORRISON STATE PLEASE PASS USTR LISA ERRION COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/EUR MIKE ROGERS TREASURY FOR OASIA ANNE ALIKONIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV EZ PGOV SUBJECT: CZECH REPUBLIC: IS RUNNING IN PLACE GOOD ENOUGH FOR THE ECONOMY? REF: A. PRAGUE 1176 ¶B. PRAGUE 911 ¶C. PRAGUE 707 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: According to the GOCR,s June 2005 economic strategy, the Czech Republic hopes to reach the EU average GDP per capita by 2013 (from USD 19,700 to USD 30,000 using PPP). To this end, the Czech economy,s near term outlook remains strong. Real GDP growth reached 4.4 percent in 2004 due to a surge in investment and exports related to EU entry, and is projected to remain healthy in 2005-2006. 2005 2Q GDP reached 5.1 percent, the best since 1996. Inflation (CPI) remained low in 2004 at 2.8 percent and is likely to remain below the three percent Maastricht Convergence Program target through end-2006. Such rosy figures, however, do not tell the whole story. As noted recently by IMF staff, the Czech Republic,s main problem is that growth cannot be sustained if problems stemming from continued rigidities in the labor market and the business-legal environment, and challenges from a fast-aging population are not addressed in a timely fashion (2005 Article IV Staff Report). With June 2006 elections looming, meaningful reforms under the current center-left Social Democrat (CSSD) government seem unlikely before the elections. The likelihood of reform after the elections will depend heavily on the nature of the coalition government, particularly on the degree of success by the more business-friendly center-right Civic Democrats (ODS) (Reftel C). END SUMMARY. -------------- Investment Climate -------------- ¶2. (U) An often-cited statistic indicative of the dynamic Czech economy is that it enjoys the highest per capita Foreign Direct Investment in the region (USD 3,000 per capita FDI for a population of 10 million). In fact, Fitch upgraded the investment rating for the Czech Republic on August 26 from A minus to A. While there is no question about the attractiveness of the Czech Republic to foreign investors given its central location, highly skilled labor force, relative low wages, and free access to the rest of the EU market, the sustainability of FDI inflows, particularly given increasing regional competition, is a key distraction. Although neighboring countries like Slovakia are starting from a lower base, the possibility of their more forward leaning and more business-friendly policies drawing FDI away from the Czech Republic is a constant preoccupation. Investors cite weak creditor rights, excessive discretion of bankruptcy judges, and cumbersome and lengthy legal procedures as key continuing problems with the local investment climate. ¶3. (U) Although official figures tend to underestimate US investments because a significant portion of US FDI comes through third countries, particularly through the Netherlands, US FDI in the Czech Republic is listed at 5.3 percent of total 2004 FDI, behind he Netherlands at 30.3 percent and Germany at 20.4 percent. While there is no American flagship investor in the Czech Republic currently, the biggest names include Conoco/Dupont (USD 695 million), Philip Morris (USD 440 million),Pepsi-Cola (USD 305 million) and Coca-Cola (USD 210 million). ¶4. (SBU) CORRUPTION: A September 6 public opinion poll identified corruption as the number one problem in the Czech Republic. Transparency International Czech Republic (TI) reports that non-transparent public contracts caused a loss of CZK 32 billion (about USD 1.5 billion) in 2004. TI attributes this to the lack of efficient controls in the government procurement process and excessive influence by politicians in public contract awarding procedures. In June 2004, TI published the results of its two-part Visegrad-4 Corruption Index (V4 Index) covering five areas of public administration: public procurement tenders, internal audit and control mechanisms, codes of ethical behavior, conflicts of interest, and public accessibility to information (www.transparency.cz ). Part one looked at existing anti-corruption tools while part two surveyed the perceptions of anti-corruption tools, efficiency, as seen by the public. Under part one, the Czech Republic came in third, with Hungary and Poland faring better and only Slovakia faring worse. Under part two, however, the Czech Republic came in last place with particularly bad results in the area of conflicts of interest. This study confirms widely held perceptions of endemic corruption, particularly in the form of conflict of interest with so many public officials simultaneously holding paid positions with commercial firms that bid on government contracts. -------------- Structural Reforms -------------- ¶5. (U) The GOCR,s main vulnerability regarding the Maastricht Convergence Program is its fiscal deficit (5 percent of GDP in 2004),largely arising from structural issues outlined below, most of which relate to an anticipated demographic shock resulting from a combination of a fast-aging population and low fertility rates. Further complicating the fiscal deficit pressures is that approximately 85 percent of the federal budget is non-discretionary. On September 5, the Prime Minister Paroubek and Finance Minister Sobotka announced that the Czech Republic is aiming to adopt the euro in 2010, a year later than previously planned. The main challenge remains reducing the structural fiscal deficit in a sustainable manner, below 3 percent of GDP by 2008. Post will report on the 2006 budget by septel. ¶6. (U) TAX REFORM: Tax reform, currently under discussion in Parliament, is the most likely structural reform to be implemented in the run-up to the June 2006 elections. In response to regional tax competition (e.g. Slovakia,s flat tax rate of 19 percent),the GOCR started to phase in reductions in corporate income taxes and is planning to introduce permanent personal income tax cuts for low- and middle-income taxpayers in 2006. The ruling Social Democrat party (CSSD) has proposed a more progressive tax regime by lowering the tax rate for the bottom two income brackets. While the opposition Civic Democrat party (ODS) will accept the CSSD plan for political reasons, the ODS prefers lower tax rates across income brackets and in fact, the flat tax is the flagship of the ODS. One source close to President Klaus, camp of the ODS says that if the ODS wins in 2006, a flat tax regime would be a foregone conclusion. The ODS proposes a flat tax of 15 percent for both corporate income tax and VAT (the minimum per EU regulation),as well as no new tax incentives, arguing that the current average VAT paid by Czech consumers is currently around 14.6 percent (pensioners pay around 13 percent given great dependence on goods vice services). The current tax regime is as follows: corporate income tax of 26 percent for the tax period ending in 2005 and 24 percent in 2006 and thereafter; progressive personal income tax with rates from 15 to 32 percent; 5 or 19 percent VAT. ¶7. (U) PENSION REFORM: The Czech Republic has the second lowest fertility rate in the world and about one quarter of the current population is pensioners. By 2050, the elderly will account for 53 percent of the population, and the working-age population will shrink by 22 percent compared with 2005. Therefore, pension reform is one of the most pressing and politically charged debates. Next year,s budget proposal earmarks over USD 10 billion for pensions -- almost 30 percent of all spending. The IMF staff project budgetary spending on pensions and health care will increase from 14 percent of GDP in 2005 to 22 percent of GDP by 2050. There are two parts to the existing pension system: the mandatory basic pension insurance scheme, which is a pay-as-you-go system, and a voluntary supplementary, capital-funded, state-subsidized supplementary pension scheme based on defined contributions. ¶8. (U) In June, the GOCR submitted to the EU its NationalStrategy Report on Adequate and Sustainable Pensions, which concluded that the current pension system will be viable for about the next 20 years but not beyond unless further reforms are implemented. During a July meeting with mainstream political leaders, PM Paroubek said parties should reach a reform consensus by the end of October. On August 31, political parties made partial progress in parliament by agreeing to the establishment of a reserve fund and increasing the age of retirement tied to rising life expectancy. Political leaders must agree on what percentage of the GDP should go to the pension system; the current figure is about 8 percent of GDP. The ruling Social Democrat party (CSSD) proposes to introduce personal accounts, which would enable people to contribute to personal investment funds during their productive years so they can control their retirement payouts. The opposition Civic Democrat party (ODS) wants to introduce a flat-rate pension and lower the mandatory contribution amount for workers so that all people receive the same lower pensions. ¶9. (U) HEALTH REFORM (Reftel A): The Czech Republic,s share of public spending on healthcare is among the highest in the OECD. The crux of the problem is poor incentives for cost control by providers and virtually free services for users. According to the World Bank, in 1999 the Czech Republic health spending was USD 950 per capita, compared to USD 756 per capita in Hungary and USD 522 per capita in Poland. Despite its importance and fiscal implications, there is a clear lack of consensus on the healthcare debate. The payroll tax currently consists of 12.5 percent paid by employees (4.5 percent for healthcare and 8 percent for social security) and 35 percent paid by the employer (9 percent for healthcare and 26 percent for social security). According to the January 2005 Ministry of Health,s Proposed Healthcare Policy for 2005-2009, one of the key problems of the healthcare system is overdue payables for the General Health Insurance Company (VZP),which as of June 2004 amounted to USD 290 million. In July, Health Minister Emmerova approved reforms measures, including USD 126 million for VZP and USD 34 million to the other eight semi-privately-run health insurance companies. These measures distinctly lack any patient co-payments measures and insufficiently address the long-term implications of an aging population receiving free healthcare. ¶10. (U) LABOR REFORM (Reftel B): The cost of the current level of unemployment (8 - 9 percent),in the form of benefits paid and taxes foregone, equals the size of the current budget deficit (about USD 4.2 billion). According to the IMF, a virtually flat employment trend (2004 unemployment rate of 8.3 percent) despite solid GDP growth in recent years is indicative of labor market rigidity. Any future reforms must address tightening of benefit entitlements, encourage retraining, and increase geographical mobility of workers. The average monthly wage in the Czech Republic is around USD 735. The current system of unemployment benefits pays USD 175 per month per person, which starting in 2006 will reach USD 183 per month, and lacks any incentives for finding work. Czech workers take more sick days than most other EU member states at 18.4 days per worker per year. The Ministry of Labor has drafted a new Labor Code, which on August 28 PM Paroubek cited it as a priority before the 2006 elections. However, the bill faces strong opposition from the business community, including from the American Chamber of Commerce, who views the code as a step backward because it does not make the labor market more flexible and better trained. Local businesses often complain about the lack of skilled workers, especially in the mid-level technical fields. The opposition Civic Democrat party (ODS) is considering a "negative income tax" on unemployment benefits, which would apply a shrinking percentage of benefits that still keeps nominal benefit levels increasing as you find work. -------------- EU integration -------------- ¶11. (U) EU REGULATIONS: Since joining the EU in May 2004, much of GOCR resources have been dedicated to EU integration requirements. In August, the European Commission said the Czech Republic came in 5th out of 25 EU member states in terms of failure in adopting EU regulations, with only Italy, Luxembourg, Greece and Portugal faring worse. In addition, the EC warned three major steelworks that they would be forced to return GOCR subsidies if they fail to make progress in restructuring within the next 18 months, which are the terms negotiated during EU accession talks for that industry. The EC also noted the GOCR,s, along with 15 other member states, slow speed in adopting EU directives for financial market regulation, including a failure to adopt directives for complementary oversight of financial conglomerates, reorganization and liquidation of loan institutions and reorganization and liquidation of insurance companies. The EC warned that if the GOCR and the other 15 states did not provide within two moths a satisfactory answer to its criticism and a viable plan for future adoption of missed directives, it would bring the issue to the European Court of Justice. ¶12. (U) EU FUNDS: On August 15, the local equivalent of the Wall Street Journal (Hospodarske Noviny) reported that the GOCR will not be able to spend all of its EU fund allocations due to delays in some programs, excessive bureaucracy and delayed payments by the EU. The Czech Republic was allocated CZK 10.6 billion (USD 445 million) in EU structural funds, which it must spend by end 2006. Absorptive capacity and EU bureaucracy are both obstacles to full and efficient use of EU funds. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Critics of the ruling Social Democrat party,s (CSSD) economic policies frequently tout that unless the GOCR adopts better policies, its traditionally considered "lesser brother" Slovakia will surpass the Czech Republic as the darling of Central Europe. While some politicians overuse this argumentation, there is some truth to this claim in the medium to longer-term as foreign investors look more and more eastward for emerging opportunities. While the Czech Republic has enjoyed a head start and suffered fewer economic fools in its recent political history, there is no denying that Slovakia is running faster, perhaps using its lower starting point and opportunities accompanying EU accession as motivation. As a recent local editorial noted, if the CR wants to remain high on the investment map, especially as investors look further east where labor is even cheaper, it will have to deal with the bureaucracy, corruption and high taxes that could eventually outweigh the low labor costs. It won,t be enough for the CR to run in place. CABANISS