REGINALD BOULOS AIMS TO ENGINEER PREVAL'S DEFEAT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 003093 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/CAR DRL S/CRS SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD STATE PASS AID FOR LAC/CAR INR/IAA (BEN-YEHUDA) TREASURY FOR MAUREEN WAFER E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/11/2010 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM HA SUBJECT: REGINALD BOULOS AIMS TO ENGINEER PREVAL'S DEFEAT REF: A. PAUP 2994 ¶B. PAUP 3059 ¶C. PAUP 2029 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Timothy M. Carney for reasons 1.4(b). ¶1. (C) Summary. Haitian chamber of commerce president and political activist Reginald Boulos is conducting weekly polling that shows Preval with a commanding lead over Charles Henri Baker and Leslie Manigat. He is disappointed that the parties in the "Political Entente for Democracy and Modernity" (ref A) he has engineered together with G-184 leader Andy Apaid has failed to unify around a single candidate to oppose Preval. Boulos will directly support the two strongest candidates within the entente, Baker and Manigat. He is confident, however, that a parliamentary majority will come from entente parties and will actively support entente parliamentary candidates across the board. Boulos believes that a second Preval presidency would be a "disaster" for the country, but that if Preval is elected in a credible election, he will work to see that the entente parties live up to their pledge to accept the results and oppose Preval by democratic means. Boulos confirmed that Preval had made efforts to reach out to him, but that Preval was responsible for gross abuses of law and order during his presidency and could not be trusted. No matter what the outcome, Boulos said he will continue to build on the program adopted by entente; rational economic policy and efficient, transparent government. Boulos is refreshingly straightforward, and no doubt continues to harbor short-term and long-term ambitions to become prime minister and otherwise exercise key influence in Haitian politics. End Summary. More Polling -------------- ¶2. (C) During a dinner with Pol and Econcouns on December 16 to discuss recent campaign developments, Boulos advised that his "Foundation for a New Haiti" (a Haitian PAC equivalent and affiliate of the larger G-184) was carrying out polling on a weekly basis (with results tabulated every Monday) that essentially tracked with post's CID/Gallup and more recent results from other polling organizations. Boulos' data from December 12 showed Preval with 35% support, Baker with 14% and Manigat with 8%. Boulos highlighted that support for Simeus registered by CID/Gallup appears to have gone to candidates other than Preval. Boulos noted ruefully that things might be different if Preval did not have such a huge advantage in resources over his rivals. Baker had raised his level of support from early November through intensive campaigning, but modest expenditures. Manigat, who had practically no resources and done virtually no campaigning, also continued to rise in the polls. Boulos said that Manigat was Preval's strongest opponent in head-to-head scenarios they polled. Manigat was within reach of Preval, taking into account a five percent margin of error; everyone else, including Baker, ran significantly behind Preval. ¶3. (C) Based on that information, and recognizing that the entente candidates would not unify against a single candidate, Boulos said that he would directly support Baker and Manigat, the only two candidates he believed had any chance of defeating Preval. After interrupting the conversation to take a call from disqualified Haitian-American candidate Samir Mourra, Boulos happily related that Mourra was about to conclude an agreement to support Manigat. He felt that Mourra had generated significant support for both himself and his MPH party, and that Mourra's endorsement would provide a significant boost to Manigat. (Note: Media confirmed Mourra's endorsement of Manigat on December 18. End Note) ¶4. (C) Boulos stated that there was much more hope for anti-Preval forces in the parliamentary races, where his polling showed that the entente parties would win a majority of seats both in the senate and the chamber of deputies, with OPL, Fusion, and Alyans polling the most strength. He emphasized that it was all the more critical, therefore, that the presidential race carry through to the second round. Otherwise, significant numbers of anti-Preval voters might sit out the second round or else jump on the L'Espwa bandwagon. Boulos said that L'Espwa/Famni Lavalas candidates currently would win only five senate seats -- pressed by Polcouns, he grudgingly conceded a difference between the two parties, saying L'Espwa candidates were running stronger. Boulos stated that the strongest senatorial candidate appeared to be Youri Latortue from the Artibonite Department, who was "hugely popular" and because of his huge advantage in resources, was running, "virtually unopposed." Preval No Friend -------------- ¶5. (C) Boulos confirmed that Preval had made a special effort to reach out to him, (ref B),but that Boulos had resisted those overtures. Boulos remained deeply skeptical that Preval had altered his approach to governance or would improve his performance as president. He related that during their most recent meeting in October, he had confronted Preval regarding Preval's support of gang leaders and widespread corruption within his government -- "I told him that you were either involved or dumb, either way you were a bad president" -- but that Preval had refused to respond to his charges. Boulos said it was "shameful" that Preval had allowed Aristide to force his Minister for State Security Robert Manuel to flee Haiti fearing for his life. Boulos said that Preval may well have broken with Aristide, but that Preval may be too weak not to allow Aristide and his circle back into Haitian politics. Boulos said that in his last conversation with Preval, conducted on the telephone, he had told Preval that he would work against his election with all his energy, but that if Preval won he was willing to try to work for compromise in the interest of Haiti. Preval, he said, had said that his position was "fair." Three Months to Form the Entente -------------- ¶6. (C) Boulos acknowledged his disappointment that after three months of negotiation he had been unable to form a more solid alliance to oppose Preval. He had, however, achieved other significant goals. Most important, he said, was the agreement of the nine parties to accept the result of a credible election, a point on which he had met significant resistance. Furthermore, the parties had agreed on the broad terms of a policy program and to work together in the parliament. The program focused on better government and combating corruption, and creating employment. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) Our own observations bear out Boulos' remarks about Preval's advantage in campaign funding. In Port-au-Prince, Preval fliers and banners far outnumber other candidates, his radio spots dominate the airwaves, and vehicles with bullhorns roam the streets blaring out his message. This is reportedly also the case in the rest of the country. Taiwan is the source of foreign funding for Preval most often mentioned, but Boulos and others admit that many Haitian business people including those who Preval presumably favored during his first term, are supporting Preval again. ¶8. (C) Comment Continued: Boulos is refreshingly straightforward and candid. Rather than spin conspiracy theories as most political observers in Haiti tend to do, he concentrates on accurate polling and research and drawing logical conclusions. His political leanings may color some of those conclusions, but his polling appears to be unbiased and a useful tool in understanding the direction of the campaign. Though not discussed during this meeting, Boulos has been open about his political ambitions with us in the past, including the becoming prime minister (ref C),and every serious presidential contender in the race has courted him. CARNEY