RENE PREVAL ASKS FOR HELP WITH DISARMAMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 002766

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV HA MINUSTAH
SUBJECT: RENE PREVAL ASKS FOR HELP WITH DISARMAMENT

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Timothy M. Carney for reasons 1.4 (B)
and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. In a meeting on November 2, ex-President
and current Presidential hopeful Rene Preval told Charge that
several gang leaders in Cite Soleil are "tired, afraid and
looking for a way out." According to Preval, up to six of
these persons are prepared to pursue disarmament and
demobilization in exchange for a way out of Cite Soleil.
Preval speculated that this would not entail departing Haiti,
but perhaps relocation to the interior. Preval relayed the
same message to SRSG Valdes, and asked for guarantees that
USAID and MINUSTAH would be prepared to fill the vaccuum
without violence. He seeks to end the current impasse which
has trapped the general population between the ganglords and
MINUSTAH, and he fears that any new operations by MINUSTAH
will produce disastrous casualties in the close, crumbling
neighborhood. Preval asked that pressure be put on the
highest levels of the interim government to pursue this
option. Additionally, Preval weighed in on the candidacy of
Dumarsais Simeus, stating that his "great fear" is that a
Simeus victory will lead to violence. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Charge met with Rene Preval, former President of
Haiti and current Presidential front runner, to discuss
disarmament at Preval's request on November 2. Charge began
the meeting by congratulating Preval on his LESPWA (Hope
Platform) party's fortuitous placement as number one on the
ballot. Preval stated that this was the "hand of God."


3. (C) Preval then told Charge that he requested the
meeting not to discuss the elections but to discuss
disarmament in Cite Soleil. He said that several of the
young gang leaders in the area wish to lay down their arms.
He described a situation in which the general populace is
trapped in the middle between equally distasteful aggressors,
the ganglords on one side and MINUSTAH on the other. He
added to this that there are those who profit from the chaos:
narcotraffickers, criminals, and even some politicians. He
said that the people of Cite Soleil associate violence with
MINUSTAH as much as the ganglords, and he asked that MINUSTAH
and the USG engage in Cite Soleil non-violently. Preval
stated that while a successful electoral registration is
ongoing, those leaders in Cite Soleil who support elections
have been specifically threatened and fear for their safety.


4. (C) While the situation remains fairly calm in Cite
Soleil, Preval stated that the weapons are still there and
the violence could return at any point. He stated that
several of the gang leaders were "tired, afraid, and looking
for a way out." He said that armed men in Cite Soleil feared
not only MINUSTAH but also legitimate and crooked elements of
the HNP, as well as the incessant inter-gang turf wars.
Charge asked Preval if he had told SRSG Valdes about this,
and Preval said that he had on the morning of 2 November.
However, he cautioned that MINUSTAH could not do much to
effect a disarmament without being ridiculed as collaborators
by an unsympathetic interim government, national police, and
political class. He therefore asked that pressure be put on
the highest levels of the interim government to instruct the
police to pursue disarmament.


5. (C) Charge responded that this was an important problem
and one worth exploring. He said that he would confer with
Valdes and seek to advance the issue. He also assured Preval
that the USG had resources in place to rapidly bring jobs and
social programs online in Cite Soleil should conditions be
right. Charge stated that the interim government should be
doing whatever possible to ensure that the elections take
place with as little violence as possible.


6. (C) Preval stated that at least five or six known gang
leaders were looking for a truce, but they needed a way out.
He compared them to dogs trapped in a room together, saying,
"if a vicious dog is trapped in your house, you open a door."
He acknowledged the practical impossibility of foisting such
persons on a foreign country, but said it might be possible
to simply relocate them to the provincial capitals. The
Charge asked about who would fill the power vaccuum left by
the flight of these leaders, and Preval responded that if
MINUSTAH and USAID could move in quickly and non-violently,
the gang violence would likely die down.


7. (C) On elections, Preval was pessimistic about meeting
the February 7 target. He said, "I am very concerned, if the
CEP cannot even resolve little problems. It is not hard to
put out a candidate list."


8. (C) On Dumarsais Simeus, Preval echoed what has become a
familiar sentiment among the Haitian political class, each of
whom "fear" that violence will result if the President is
"mal elu" (wrongfully elected). Preval said he thinks the
Presidency should be set aside from the legislature in terms
of importance. He noted that the country will survive if a
few legislative races are contested, but a contested
Presidential election will be disastrous. When the Charge
asked him if the Constitution ought be amended to reflect the
important role of the diaspora, Preval concurred and went far
beyond that, saying that the Constitution needed a complete
rewrite as well. However, he refused to concede that Simeus
was part of the diaspora, saying "he is not Haitian." He
said that the fight over Simeus was wasting precious time,
and it was his "great fear" that Simeus' candidacy would lead
to violence.


9. (C) COMMENT. MINUSTAH is wary of engaging with gang
leaders, as the political class has strongly criticized such
engagement in the past. However, Preval carries a level of
credibility that could advance disarmament while
simultaneously yielding significant electoral reward for him.
Cite Soleil leader Rene Monplaisir is now a vocal supporter
of Preval, and he led over a thousand people in a pro-Preval
demonstration on November 3. Preval clearly seeks to take
credit for eliminating gang violence in the area.


10. (C) The galling irony of the political class' criticism
of Simeus is that an overwhelming number of them are also
dual nationals or at least hold foreign residence.
Nevertheless, it is clear that the same group of Haitian
leaders that united to create the interim government are
equally united in opposition to Simeus' candidacy, regardless
of what appears to be his growing popularity among average
Haitians. END COMMENT.
CARNEY