MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iraq Iran Bolivia

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 008571 SIPDIS DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - Iraq Iran Bolivia PARIS - Wednesday, December 21, 2005 (A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: Iraq Iran Bolivia B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: Front pages lead with Evo Morales's election in Bolivia (Liberation: "The Indians Re-conquer America."),China's economic boom (Le Figaro) and the situation in Lebanon, "Paralyzed by the Fear of Suicide Attacks" according to La Croix. An interview with slain journalist Gebrane Trueni's uncle Marwan Hamade, a Lebanese elected official, is titled: "The assassinations in Lebanon are perpetrated with Bachar al- Assad's knowledge." The situation in Iraq is the basis for an interview of Gerard Chaliand, who specializes in the politics of conflicts, in Le Figaro, titled: "Iraq Is Dominated by `Communautarism.'" "The elections are a success but they also confirm that in Iraq political life is dominated by the separation between the different communities. While democracy has made inroads in Iraq, it is important to re-instate the Sunni majority in the political process in order to keep chaos at bay. Bush is increasingly on the defensive at home: this is the price he is paying for his non-victory in Iraq and an ill-prepared war. Considering the magnitude of the insurrection, and the uncertainties hovering over Iraq, it is reasonable for the U.S. President to maintain sufficient troops there. An early withdrawal would have worse consequences than a prolonged stay." In the satirical weekly paper Le Canard Enchaine, Claude Angeli pens an article entitled: "Paris and Europe Afraid of `a U.S. Failure in Iraq." (See Part C) Liberation reports that American pessimism about the economy and Iraq "is on the wane." "The clouds over Bush's `horrible year' seem to be lifting," writes Pascal Riche reporting on the latest U.S. opinion poll (Washington Post/ABC News),which shows that 47% of respondents support Bush, up from only 39% in November. He notes that the "blitzkrieg" communications operation launched in recent weeks to show Americans that victory is possible in Iraq has succeeded. Le Figaro reports on Angela Merkel's "harsher stance towards Iran." (See Part C) In his two-day visit, Serbian President Boris Tadic, continued to express opposition to Kosovo's independence. In Les Echos editorialist Jacques Hubert-Rodier analyzes the "Explosive Kosovo Puzzle." "No matter what Kosovo's final status is, there will always be a strong international presence in the region because the match that is being played is extremely complex and the great powers such as the U.S., France, Great Britain, Italy and Russia who make up the `contact group' all have a role to play." Liberation reports that a poll to appear tomorrow in l'Express indicates that 1 out of three people in France would like Chirac to resign. (C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: Iraq "Fear of a `U.S. Failure' in Iraq" Claude Angeli in satirical Le Canard Enchaine (12/21): "General Bentegeat last November said that `the international community would do everything to avoid a U.S. failure in Iraq' because of the dire consequences. Chirac, Villepin and their advisors share Bentegeat's point of view. The signals coming from Iraq are those of imminent danger and military personnel of a `spreading cancer' in the Middle East. In his recent speeches, President Bush repeated the word `victory' some thirty times, as if to conjure fate. Or the polls. In Paris, this spectacle of a President forced to repeat the same words over and over is no longer even funny. A French diplomat acknowledged that his colleagues at the U.S. Embassy in Paris are both cynical and sad about the situation in Iraq: `they acknowledge that a civil war between Shiites and Sunnis would follow closely an early U.S. troop withdrawal.' But the fact is that civil war has already erupted between the two communities. Meanwhile, American Generals have warned that keeping troops in Iraq will be difficult because of the lack of recruits. Who can blame American youth for not wanting to enroll." Iran "Merkel's Harsher Stance Towards Iran" Maurin Picard in right-of-center Le Figaro (12/21): "With little enthusiasm, the EU is resuming its talks with Iran on the nuclear crisis. The EU-3 does not expect anything positive to come out of the talks. Ever since the election of Ahmadinejad, the outsider no one expected, Tehran has seriously hardened its position. and is now lending a deaf ear to Russia's overture. Euro-Iranian relations are very much in ruins. But while today's meetings may well be a session devoted to `exploratory contacts,' the troika is no longer ready for a wait and see approach. Germany, which has traditionally adopted a conciliatory attitude towards Iran, has now opted for a different stance. The arrival of Angela Merkel, who has a more atlanticist attitude than her predecessor, has been instrumental in this change. The latest remarks by Ahmadinejad have also prompted Germany to consider imposing economic sanctions on Iran and banning the Iranian President from Germany. But Moscow remains the key: torn between keeping Iran from acquiring the bomb, and the appeal of juicy Iranian contracts, Moscow has yet to choose sides." Bolivia - Election of Evo Morales "Renaissance" Patrick Sabatier in left-of-center Liberation (12/21): "Could this be the revenge of the Indians over the conquistadors? A rebirth of the Che's revolutionary dream? Is this the beginning of an Indian renaissance or of Latin America's shift to the left? But anti-imperialistic slogans can be misleading. Claiming to be leftist and anti-imperialistic does not mean breaking with the gringos' economic system. Still, the Indians have been the forgotten people for years. Evo Morales's electoral victory, if only by its magnitude, is reason enough to hope for a country that holds the world record for political coups. It is up to Morales to avoid populism and lift Bolivia's economy and social system." "Bolivia's Peaceful Revolution" Left-of-center Le Monde's editorial (12/21): "Morales's election is like a peaceful revolution. But will he be able to bring back stability to one of Latin America's poorest countries? He will have the support of the unions, at least in the beginning. His program will be the opposite of the movement for economic liberalization, which has been taking over across Latin America. Thus the anti-American axis is being re-enforced. After the fall of military dictatorships and the wave of democratization of the 90s, a new era has started for Latin America." STAPLETON