FRENCH CUBA POLICY: WAITING FOR A GESTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 007779

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/15/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM FR CU
SUBJECT: FRENCH CUBA POLICY: WAITING FOR A GESTURE

REF: PARIS 7145

Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) In a November 15 meeting with Deputy Political
Counselor and PolOff, MFA DAS-equivalent for Mexico, Central
America, and the Caribbean Pierre-Alain Coffinier clarified
the French position on Cuba in the aftermath of FM Perez
Roque's visit October 11 (reftel). Coffinier characterized
the July 13 and July 22 arrests of dissidents as
"incomprehensible" and a "provocation" to France, despite GoF
efforts (which Coffinier conceded was a liberal
interpretation of EU policy) "to engage in dialogue" with
both dissidents and the GoC by holding national day events on
different days. As a result, French FM Douste-Blazy had put
Perez Roque on notice during their October 11 bilat that
France was "waiting for a gesture" from Cuba, specifically
the release of dissidents.


2. (C) Asked specifically whether Douste-Blazy's harder line
with Perez Roque reflected a French policy shift, Coffinier
responded that the change in the French line was one of tone
or tactics rather than substance. The GoF he said, was
currently taking a wait-and-see approach on Cuba, although it
did not exclude the possibility of a more substantive change
in the absence of action on the part of the GoC. Asked
whether the GoF was thinking in terms of weeks or months,
however, Coffinier declined to give a precise deadline for
any such "gesture."


3. (C) Comment. Coffinier's comments confirm previous MFA
indications that the French were deeply offended by the July
crackdowns and have taken the GoC to task as a result.
Unfortunately, French umbrage has not led to a permanent
policy shift. While current French demands constitute a
positive half-step, the lack of a deadline for results allows
the GoC far too much leeway. Given past policy, the GoF may
be satisfied by a "gesture" that falls far short of the total
release of political prisoners and dissidents, particularly
if it feels there is a diplomatic advantage to doing so.
While this shift -- however slight -- may offer an opening
for those in the EU who would prefer a tougher stance against
the Castro regime, it is no doubt too early to conclude that
it will deprive the Zapatero government of a strong ally in
its efforts to water down the EU common foreign policy on
Cuba. End Comment.

Please visit Paris' Classified Website at:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/paris/index.c fm
Hofmann