RESPONSES TO EU-3 REQUESTS - FRANCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 005214 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2015 TAGS: PARM PREL KNNP FR SUBJECT: RESPONSES TO EU-3 REQUESTS - FRANCE REF: STATE 139032 Classified By: Karl Hofmann, DCM Paris, e.o. 12958 reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) During introductory calls July 28, incoming and outgoing DCMs provided reftel response to the EU-3's July 20 questions regarding the proposal to Iran to MFA Political Director Laboulaye. Laboulaye already had received substance from the French embassy in Washington. He commented only that the EU-3 might require some explicit USG assurances regarding potential actions against private companies the EU-3 might encourage to cooperate with Iran in the context of an eventual deal. ¶2. (C) Laboulaye said in any case that he expected the Iranian dossier to reach a "crisis point" in the near future. The EU-3 intend to send a letter to the Iranians before August 1, the date by which Laboulaye believes the current Iranian government will seek to break off the EU talks, stating simply that a proposal will be forthcoming and providing no pretext for a break. Then, after the new Iranian president is inaugurated August 3, Laboulaye said the 20-plus page EU proposal will be delivered. The EU proposal will be unattractive from the Iranian perspective, he said. Whether the EU-3 can convince the new Iranian government to stay engaged as a step toward greater international legitimacy is unclear, but Laboulaye seemed pessimistic. ¶3. (C) After the EU proposal is delivered, in the event the Iranians reject it and end their suspension of reprocessing, Laboulaye envisioned first an EU appeal to Tehran to reverse course, then seeking an emergency IAEA BOG meeting to urge the same, and then a subsequent IAEA BOG to act and refer the matter to the UNSC, all prior to mid-September. He lamented that this scenario would put the Iran matter before the UNSC at a terrible time, given the September High Level Event and the debate on UN reform. Laboulaye stressed that we would need to maintain close contact on the Iran dossier in the coming weeks. STAPLETON