PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S PROSPECTS FOR 2005 AND BEYOND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 000521

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR EUR/WE, DRL/IL, AND INR/EUC
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2010
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB ECON FR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S PROSPECTS FOR 2005 AND BEYOND
-- KEEPING THE OPTIONS OPEN AND THE CHALLENGERS OFF BALANCE

REF: 04 PARIS 8689

Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT FOR REASO

NS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Although, President Chirac lost some ground with
France's electorate on domestic policy issues during 2004, he
more than made up for it -- finishing the year with a strong
public image -- by his performance on foreign policy issues.
His projection of himself as a proud President, standing up
for France (particularly versus the U.S.),gives him a touch
of the grandeur of the de Gaulle era that resonates with much
of the French public. If his overall popularity should hold
steady, if he should win approval for the proposed EU
Constitution in the upcoming referendum on it, and if the
disarray and lack of stature among his likely challengers on
the center-left persist, he will in all liklihood decide to
run again in 2007. To do so he will also have to hold off
former Interior and Finance Minister Nicolas Sarkozy, who is
directly challenging Chirac for leadership of the
center-right. The rivalry between Chirac and Sarkozy for
control of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) party will
continue through 2005, which is shaping up as a fateful year
for French politics. END SUMMARY

40 YEARS OF PUBLIC LIFE
--------------

2. (SBU) Jacques Chirac won his first election in 1965 (as a
member of the city council of the town of Sainte-Fereole in
the Correze region of southern France). He has not been out
of politics, nor hardly out of office, since then. Reporters
who have covered him over the years, and claim to know his
character and state of mind, agree that he is much more
likely to be in denial about retirement than planning for it.
In this connection, media commentators also like to point to
"the example" of Francois Mitterrand who was re-elected to a
second term in 1988 at the age of 72 (Chirac's current age),
and served as president until he was 79, when in May 1995
Chirac succeeded him. Recently asked what her husband would
do when he retires from politics, Bernadette Chirac said,
"Chirac in retirement? I don't see it." If elected
president in 2007, Chirac would be 80 on leaving office in

2012. (French presidential terms were changed from seven
years to five in 2000 during Chirac's "first" seven-year
term.)

NOT ACTING AS IF HIS LEGACY WERE BEHIND HIM
--------------

3. (C) President Chirac's gusto for his job remains evident,
particularly in its constitutionally unchecked dimension as
head of state with full control over France's foreign policy.
Chirac's performance defending his most recent (and rare)
gamble with public opinion -- backing opening accession talks
with Turkey though most Frenchmen and women are against
Turkey's inclusion in the EU -- was energetic, lucid and
forward-looking. The public, at least according to polls,
generally approved of his engagement on the issue and of his
defense of the decision to support opening accession talks
with Turkey, notwithstanding their persisting skepticism
about the wisdom of having Turkey join the EU. In all, just
over the half way mark of what, until recently, was generally
assumed would be his last term, France's president is clearly
acting as if his legacy were still ahead of him. Chirac is
unlikely to withdraw voluntarily from politics unless
circumstances and his political vulnerabilities dash all
reasonable prospects for continuing.

SARKOZY INTENT ON UNDERTAKING HIS OWN LEGACY
--------------

4. (C) The deferential culture of the French political class
makes Nicholas Sarkozy's open challenge to Chirac's
leadership of the center-right remarkable. Sarkozy, until
recently Chirac's spotlight-grabbing Finance and Interior
Minister, is now President of the Union for a Popular
Movement (UMP) party, the party Chirac founded in 1995 to
fuse the different strands of the center-right -- and support
his successful bid for the presidency that year. (To Chirac's
credit, he has all along excluded the far-right National
Front from his center-right coalitions.) To his great
chagrin, Chirac had to accede to Sarkozy's election as head
of the UMP. Sarkozy decided to use his genuine popularity
among party members to seize control of the party once Alain
Juppe gave up the party presidency, in July 2004, a few
months following his conviction on corruption charges
(reftel). For Sarkozy, the UMP is the platform from which to
launch his bid for the French presidency in 2007. Sarkozy's
direct assault on Chirac's leadership of the center-right,
not surprisingly, has exacerbated the long-standing rivalry
between them.


5. (C) Sarkozy's youth, activism, and American-like
enthusiasm for entrepreneurship resonate with those in France
who advocate reforms to better adapt the economy and society
to globalization -- the very areas of Chirac's poor showing
as a domestic leader. Sarkozy's nomination as the
center-right's candidate in 2007 would be a bitter personal
defeat for Chirac. By keeping open the option that he might
run again himself, Chirac keeps Sarkozy off balance,
whipsawing Sarkozy between positioning himself against the
Socialists and positioning himself against Chirac.

RIVALRY WILL PERSIST
--------------

6. (C) The rivalry between Sarkozy and Chirac is a battle
both to define what the center-right stands for and to become
its standard bearer in 2007. Chirac, particularly in recent
years, has become more statist (including with regard to
social policy),more "Gaullist" (particulary in regard to
American leadership) and more "Republican" (in the sense of
holding firm to the traditional French view that religion and
other cultural allegiances have no place in the public
sphere). Sarkozy, on the other hand, is considered more
market-oriented with regard to economic policy, an
"Atlanticist" (both because of his predilection for the U.S.
and his "American" style),and what the French call
"communitarian" -- seen in Sarkozy's willingness to extend
official recognition to ethnic and religious identities via
affirmative action policies or state subsidized training of
religious leaders.


7. (C) The intensity of the media coverage that followed
Sarkozy's every move as Minister of the Interior and later as
Minister of Economy during 2004 -- focussing in particular on
those actions seen as signaling Sarkozy's defiance of the
President -- will likely diminish in 2005. However, the
battle between "Chiracquiens" and "Sarkozists" over control
of party funds and over the rules whereby the party will
choose its candidate for 2007 will remain intense. Sarkozy
enjoys enthusiastic popularity among party rank-and-file, and
so far, has kept the momentum of being the party's clear-cut
leader for the future. However, Chirac's power, as an
incumbent president and founder of the party, in particular
over the party's senior, elected office holders, should not
be underestimated. Sarkozy has advocated -- to the
vociferous objection of supporters of President Chirac in the
party -- that the party choose its nominee via a primary-like
process in which party members vote. Current party rules are
deliberately imprecise -- permitting the party leader's
self-proclamation of his candidacy, as has been the practice
on the right since the days of de Gaulle.

FIVE MORE YEARS?
--------------

8. (C) Many media commentators insist that Chirac has made
it amply clear that he wants five more years in the Elysee
Palace. For example, asked by a student at an event in
November 2004, "When you leave the presidency, in 2007 or
2012, what accomplishment will you be proudest of?" Chirac
shot back, jokingly but tellingly, "Why 2012? Why not 2017?"
In addition, many informed observers insist that the
positions Chirac is taking on important issues, particularly
in foreign affairs, are aimed at giving him that
"personification of France" aura that has always played well
to voters here. Indeed, Chirac's relatively healthy level of
popularity after 10 years as president is largely due to the
"credit" he earned "standing up to the U.S." over Iraq. For
now, Sarkozy remains the obstacle that overshadows all others
on Chirac's road to another term. Projecting himself as the
only political figure with the experience and stature to see
to France's international role, including its role in the
evolution of the EU, along with his familiarity to an
electorate heavy with older voters, may be enough to put him
over the top in a race against, for example, Socialist Party
First Secretary Francois Hollande, who has never held a
ministerial post.

CONCLUSION
--------------

9. (C) The presidential elections of 2007 are still two and
half years away. Jacques Chirac will soon have been
president for 10 years and shows no signs of wanting to stop.
In his New Year's address to the diplomatic corps, for
example, Chirac was clearly focussed on the future -- he
seemed a man energized for the campaign trail. 2005 will be
a year of decision for Chirac himself, and for France on a
number of key issues -- issues that have bedeviled Chirac
(the pace and direction of domestic reform) and issues that
have shown him at his best (the EU Constitution and support
for Turkey's accession to the EU). Chirac wants to keep the
levers of power responsive to him. Withdrawing as a
potential candidate in 2007 would make Chirac a particularly
lame, lame duck. For all these reasons, Chirac will be
careful, during coming months, to act like a candidate-to-be,
hoping opportunism and circumstance will allow him to follow
through sucessfully.
Leach