MFA UNCERTAIN ON TRANSNISTRIA CONFERENCE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 005004

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2015
TAGS: OPDC PARM PBTS PHUM PREL PGOV MD FR UZ EUN OSCE
SUBJECT: MFA UNCERTAIN ON TRANSNISTRIA CONFERENCE,
DISCUSSES OTHER CIS ISSUES

REF: A. STATE 125824

B. PARIS 4916

Classified By: A/DCM JOSIAH ROSENBLATT, FOR REASONS 1.4 B/D


1. (C) Summary: In a meeting July 18 with POL M/C and Poloff,
Jean-Francois Terral, the MFA's A/S-equivalent for the
Balkans, Russia and the former Soviet space, said France was
studying our ref A demarche supporting a multilateral
conference on the Transnistria conflict, but was uncertain of
its utility if it bypassed the Russians, especially given a
GOF perception that Russia was beginning to come around to
embracing a more positive role on the Transnistria conflict.
Terral said he did not expect any backpedaling on EU/French
commitments to the Balkans following French rejection of the
EU Constitution, although he speculated that the EU (and
France) would be "more rigorous" on conditions for
membership. He said France would wait until the visit of
OSCE SYG Brichambaut to Uzbekistan before making any decision
on its policy regarding that country, and noted that the EU
was beginning to focus more attention on Belarus, with new
initiatives coming from Lithuania and Poland. End summary.

FRENCH SEE POSITIVE RUSSIAN MOVEMENT ON TRANSNISTRIA


2. (C) Terral recounted that French/Russian discussions of
the Transnistria problem had always featured a "ten-minute
lecture" by the Russian interlocutor bemoaning the failure of
the Kozak plan. Recently though, said Terral, the Russians
had not given such lectures and had appeared to be open to
greater EU (and U.S.) involvement. Furthermore, Terral
raised the possibility of a EU monitoring mission along the
Moldova-Ukraine border, which he said France fully supported.
This monitoring mission, said Terral, would help dry up
resources for the Transnistrian regime and help the Ukrainian
government exert full authority over its border police.
Given apparent Russian willingness to consider EU and US
involvement and EU resolve to launch a monitoring mission
along the border, Terral said a multilateral conference on
Transnistria without Russia would run the risk of a Russian
backlash. France would be open to such a conference, said
Terral, if it occurred within the context of full Russian
involvement. Terral reiterated the GOF's belief that Russia
appeared to be evolving in the right direction regarding
Transnistria and that now was not the time to ruffle Russian
feathers.

EU WILL BE "MORE RIGOROUS" WITH THE BALKANS


3. (C) POL M/C asked Terral if he anticipated any changes in
French policy on the Balkans' future membership in the EU
following French rejection of the EU Constitution. Terral
said the defeat of the Constitution was still too recent to
make any real guesses, but he believed that cooler heads
would prevail, and France would continue to support the
eventual integration of the Balkan countries into the EU.
However, said Terral, he anticipated that the EU would be
"more rigorous" in applying membership standards. He was as
certain as he could be that Croatia would join the EU,
whether or not on the precise schedule currently set out. If
Croatia joins, it would be unnatural for Serbia to be left
out. That left Bosnia, whose political and reform situation
was "relatively stagnant," said Terral. He remained
skeptical that Karadzic would be caught and believed that
there was more political will in the region to catch Mladic.

UZBEKISTAN AND BELARUS: THE GOF WORRIES ABOUT A
LUKASHENKO-ORDERED "ANDIJON"


4. (C) Terral said France continued to watch closely the
situation in Uzbekistan, and looked forward to OSCE SYG
Brichambaut's end of July visit. When asked what role the
GOF saw for the OSCE, the EU and the UN, Terral appeared to
backtrack from ref B report that France was opposed to
raising the matter at the UN. Terral said that France was
open to whatever method would work best, and was not against
a role for the UN. Still, he said France preferred to "wait
and see" how Karimov would react to Brichambaut's planned
visit. In the context of the regional instability brought
about by the events in Andijon in May, Terral said that EU
members had renewed discussion on Belarus, given the
possibility that Belarus President Lukashenko would not
hesitate to use force just as Uzbekistan President Karimov
had done. Recent discussions had involved a number of
different EU members, said Terral, but for the most part had
featured Poland, Lithuania, France and Germany. Terral said
Lithuania and Poland were particularly concerned about
Belarus, and had suggested two new proposals: 1) outreach to
possibly receptive members of Belarus
officialdom/nomenklatura with the message that Lukashenko
would not be in power forever, and it was in their interest
to cultivate ties with the West; and 2) ask the Russians to
pressure Belarus given that a Lukashenko-ordered "Andijon"
event in Belarus would only spur Belarus instability and harm
Russian interests there. Terral said the GOF had been
surprised by the Lithuanian and Polish suggestions,
especially the second one, which entailed close cooperation
with the Russians. Although these and other proposals were
only in the discussion stage within the EU, Terral made it
clear that the EU and France were refocusing attention on
Belarus in the hope of forestalling an "Andijon"-type event
that was much closer to EU borders than Uzbekistan.
STAPLETON