FRANCE'S REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION: VOTERS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 003342 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL, INR/EUC AND EB DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ELAB EU FR PINR SOCI ECON SUBJECT: FRANCE'S REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION: VOTERS LARGELY INDIFFERENT TO ANTI-AMERICAN ARGUMENTS REF: A. (A) PARIS 3208 ¶B. (B) PARIS 3103 ¶C. (C) PARIS 2942 AND PREVIOUS ¶D. (D) PARIS 1998 AND PREVIOUS SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Arguments aiming to tap into anti-Americanism among the French to win support either for or against the proposed constitution have by and large met with indifference from ordinary voters. This has not prevented the TV debates featuring major politicians, the print editorials and the non-stop TV commentary from being occasionally punctuated by calls to "vote 'yes' to build a strong Europe able to stand up to the U.S.", or "vote 'no' to save Europe from dominance by the U.S. and NATO". Overall, the U.S. has come up dispassionately, as an example of a rival, both economic and political, to be countered by a united Europe. The referendum debate has been dominated by voters' focus on their straitened economic circumstances. This has brought to the fore arguments about whether ordinary Frenchmen and women will be economically secure with the proposed constitution for Europe, and has pushed to the margins efforts to exploit in the referendum debate hostility towards the U.S. The U.S. (along with Britain) consistently appears in the debate depicted as the source of a "liberal" economic model that must be held at bay. END SUMMARY. U.S. IN THE BACKGROUND OF CENTRIST VOTERS' CONCERNS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Contrary to expectations, of the Socialist Party (PS) in particular, which planned a campaign that featured "Yes, to a strong Europe against the U.S." theme (reftel D), French voters have largely shrugged off efforts to sway them based on appeals to anti-Americanism. Francois Rebsamen, the PS official in charge of the party's 'yes' campaign, admitted as much. He told Poloff on April 19 that calls to support the constitution in order to counter U.S. power have carried little weight with voters at large, including the PS's center-left electorate. One result seems to have been a recasting of this theme in the PS's latest campaign flyers. The "strong Europe" theme now barely mentions the U.S. Instead, it focuses on Europe's political weakness and highlights the institutional changes in the constitution that could give Europe more weight in international affairs. ¶3. (SBU) Pollsters seeking to establish voters' motivation do not specifically ask about the U.S., but do track such issues as "desire for a political Europe" and "conviction that French identity is under threat." These are important issues for voters, but considerations relating to the U.S. seem to be in the background, not the foreground, for center-left and center-right voters. These voters' focus is on France's continued leadership role in a political Europe or on further surrender of French sovereignty to Europe, not on how the U.S. might fit into the equation. Not surprisingly, anti-Americanism is a stronger motivator on the far right and the far left. The 'no' argument of both far right "France First" sovereignists and far left anti-Americans, that the proposed Constitution creates an "Atlanticist Europe dominated by the United States," finds ground for traction in the resentments and suspicions of these "traditionalist" voters of both far right and far left. OPPOSITION TO U.S. PERSISTS IN POLITICAL CLASS -------------- - ¶4. (SBU) The low-profile of anti-American themes in the referendum debate, however, has not prevented the TV debates featuring major politicians, the print editorials and the non-stop TV commentary from being occasionally punctuated by appeals to anti-Americanism. Most striking has been the way establishment figures, including high-ranking officials, have, near inadvertently, let slip evidence of a world view in which building a strong Europe is fundamentally about countering American power. Foreign Minister Barnier, for example, in a major televised debate on April 25, as he was sitting down ending an intervention in favor of adopting the constitution, tossed off the remark, "The choice is not between France and Europe, as some say; the choice is between a European Europe and a Europe under the influence of the United States." COMMENT: The bias this remark reveals is far from exclusively Barnier's; it is shared by many of both left and right in the French political class, including President Chirac. END COMMENT. POPULAR FOCUS IS ON THE CONSTITUTION AND THE ECONOMY -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The referendum debate so far has been dominated by voters' focus on their straitened economic circumstances (reftel B). The continuing strength of the 'no' vote is in large part driven by anger at unemployment, outsourcing, diminished purchasing power, and deteriorating public services. The constitution and the elite that favor it are a convenient target for this anger. Among the most effective arguments of the 'yes' camp is that a stronger Europe could work to improve economic conditions for ordinary Frenchmen and women -- help France protect its jobs, industries and social model. One unexpected result of this focus on how the French might best cope in an increasingly competitive global economy has been the very common catchphrase "like the U.S. and China." This phrase surfaces whenever advocates of the constitution argue that only through a strong Europe can France hope to protect its trade and economic interests in a global economy structured by three great centers of economic power. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The U.S. and China are an odd couple for such a regularly repeated pairing. The conventional wisdom among the French is that the U.S., China and Europe are somehow a trio of equals, soon to achieve some sort of parity in determining the global future, and that the U.S. and China both pose serious challenges to Europe. Whether or not the proposed constitution enables Europe to meet these economic challenges, while retaining a compassionate social model seen to be alien to both the U.S. and Chinese systems, is a question that is gaining prominence as the referendum debate enters its final two weeks. But this is different than a debate about countering U.S. power globally. Middle-of-the-road voters' relative indifference to anti-American themes in the referendum campaign is partly explained by their preoccupation with economic security in a global environment. END COMMENT. WOLFF