MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ WORLD ORDER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 000274 SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY CHANGED PARA MARKING SO AS NOT TO TO CONFUSE WITH CLASSIFICATION DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY (FRANK); BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; EUR/WE (DEBORAH MENNUTI)/P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA (BERBENA); INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR AND PASS USTR/PA (ANN LUZZATO); USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; ROME/PA; BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR FR SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - IRAQ WORLD ORDER PARIS - FRIDAY, JANUARY 14, 2005 ¶A. SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: ¶1. IRAQ ¶2. WORLD ORDER ¶B. SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: DOMESTIC POLITICS ARE TODAY'S MAJOR LEAD AND EDITORIAL STORY, WITH THE CHIRAC-SARKOZY DUEL FRONT-PAGED IN LE FIGARO AND SEVERAL EDITORIALS DEVOTED TO THE CONTROVERSIAL REMARKS MADE BY JEAN-MARIE LE PEN, OF THE NATIONAL FRONT PARTY, ABOUT THE GERMAN OCCUPATION OF FRANCE, WHICH IN HIS WORDS "WAS NOT THAT INHUMANE." IN LE FIGARO MICHEL SCHIFRES WRITES: "ONE OF THE `MERITS' OF LE PEN, FOR WHICH HE CANNOT TAKE CREDIT, IS THAT HE AND HIS REMARKS ARE SO REVOLTING THAT IT GIVES US THE OPPORTUNITY TO REPEAT ONCE MORE WHAT THE OCCUPATION AND DEPORTATION WERE LIKE. THIS IS A NECESSITY THAT MUST BE REPEATED." LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES ITS LEAD STORY TO THE DISAPPEARANCE IN IRAQ, OVER NINE DAYS AGO, OF ONE OF ITS JOURNALISTS AND HER IRAQI DRIVER. FOR THE FIRST TIME, THE WORD ABDUCTION IS BEING UTTERED, AND BY THE IRAQI PRESIDENT GHAZI EL-YANUAR WHO IS ON AN OFFICIAL VISIT TO PARIS. REPORTS ON THE VISIT REITERATE PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S OPINION THAT "THE ELECTIONS MUST BE HELD AT THE SCHEDULED DATE, IN SPITE OF THE VIOLENCE," ACCORDING TO THIERRY OBERLE'S REPORT IN LE FIGARO. IRAQ IS THE SUBJECT OF A TWO-PAGE REPORT IN POPULAR RIGHT-OF- CENTER FRANCE SOIR, TITLED: "IRAQ PLUNGES INTO CHAOS." CORRESPONDENT THOMAS DE ROCHECHOUART DOUBTS WHETHER "THE SITUATION CAN IMPROVE AFTER THE ELECTIONS" AND CONTENDS THAT THIS IS PRESIDENT BUSH'S "MOST CRITICAL ISSUE." (SEE PART C) FRANCE SOIR INTERVIEWS JEAN-CHARLES BRISARD, AUTHOR OF A BOOK ON ZARKAWI AND AL-QAEDA: "THE AMERICANS DO NOT KNOW HOW TO DEAL WITH THE SITUATION IN IRAQ. ALREADY THEY HAVE LOST THE WAR ON THE POLITICAL LEVEL. IRAQ HAS BECOME TODAY THE NUMBER ONE PLACE OF REFUGE FOR TERRORISM, LIKE AFGHANISTAN IN THE 90S. THE U.S. IS CAUGHT IN A VICIOUS CIRCLE: TO RESOLVE THE CRISIS IT NEEDS TO PRESSURE NEIGHBORING NATIONS WHICH SUPPORT THE IRAQI RESISTANCE, SUCH AS IRAN AND SYRIA. BUT THIS IN TURN CAN LEAD TO ANOTHER CIRCLE OF VIOLENCE." RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO CARRIES AN OP-ED PENNED BY FORMER PRIME MINISTER EDOUARD BALLADUR, IN WHICH HE ESTABLISHES THE GROUND RULES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY AND THE FUTURE OF UNIVERSALISM, IN WHICH THE U.S. AND FRANCE HAVE A ROLE TO PLAY. HIS COLUMN IS EXCERPTED FROM HIS LATEST BOOK. (SEE PART C.) ¶C. SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: IRAQ "IRAQ PLUNGES INTO CHAOS" THOMAS DE ROCHECHOUARD IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER FRANCE SOIR (01/14): "PRESIDENT BUSH'S FATE APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THE FUTURE OF IRAQ. CAN THE SITUATION CHANGE AFTER THE ELECTIONS? NOTHING IS LESS CERTAIN. THE ELECTIONS COULD VERY WELL LEAD IRAQ TO PARTITION OR A CIVIL WAR. IN SHORT, IT IS A HOTBED OF INSTABILITY FOR THE ENTIRE MIDDLE EAST, WHICH LOOKS AS IF IT IS VERY FAR FROM THE `VIRTUOUS DOMINO EFFECT' PROMOTED TWO YEARS AGO BY PRESIDENT BUSH. THESE ELECTIONS ARE AKIN TO THE LAST THROW OF THE DICE FOR THE U.S. PRESIDENT. ALTHOUGH HE STILL HOPES TO COME OUT THE WINNER, FOR THE TIME BEING PRESIDENT BUSH'S ACHIEVEMENTS IN IRAQ ARE CATASTROPHIC: A COUNTRY GIVEN TO BLOODSHED AND VIOLENCE, DAILY U.S. CASUALTIES, THREAT OF A CIVIL WAR, RE-ENFORCED TERRORIST GROUPS AND A DETERIORATING U.S. IMAGE. AFTER HAVING C O R R E C T E D COPY CHANGED PARA MARKING SO NOT TO CONFUSE WITH CLASSIFICATION ACKNOWLEDGED THE ABSENCE OF WMD IN IRAQ, THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION HAS NO MARGIN FOR ERROR LEFT. PRESIDENT BUSH HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO BRING IMPROVEMENT TO A REGION WHICH HAS BECOME A POWDER KEG." WORLD ORDER "FRANCE, THE 21ST CENTURY AND UNIVERSALISM" FORMER PM EDOUARD BALLADUR IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (01/14): "TODAY'S INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS WERE CONCEIVED AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR BY THE WEST, WHICH IMPOSED ITS PRINCIPLES AND ITS PRACTICES. BUT TODAY OTHER NATIONS ARE EMERGING, CHINA, INDIA, BRAZIL, RUSSIA, IRAN. AND WANT TO FREE THEMSELVES FROM THIS POLITICAL AND MORAL DOMINATION. THE AMERICANS AND THEIR DESIRE TO ACT ALONE, WHERE AND WHEN THEY WANT LEADS THEM TO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT STATES OF MIND AND THE BALANCE OF POWER. NO NATION, HOWEVER POWERFUL, CAN EXPECT TO RUN THE AFFAIRS OF THE WORLD BY ITSELF. OTHERS HAVE APPEARED ON THE SCENE WHO EXPECT TO BE RESPECTED. BECAUSE EVERYONE SHARES THE SAME PLANET, THE BEST IS TO DEFINE RULES FOR LIVING SIDE BY SIDE AND TO RESPECT THESE RULES. THE INTERNATIONAL MODEL HAS SHATTERED. ANOTHER ONE NEEDS TO BE INVENTED FOUNDED ON THE EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN THESE ENTITIES, AND BASED ON NEW WORLD RULES, WITH MORE AMBITIOUS GOALS BUT ALSO MORE RESPECTFUL OF THE OTHER. THE THREAT HOVERING ON THE WORLD IS THAT OF A CONFRONTATION BETWEEN CULTURES IN THE FORM OF CIVIL WARS AND INTERNATIONAL WARS. THE FATE OF THE WORLD IS AT STAKE. THE TIME HAS COME AND GONE WHEN THE WEST COULD EVEN THINK OF IMPOSING ITS MODEL ON OTHERS THROUGH FORCE. IT IS IN THE INTEREST OF THE WEST TO HELP POOR NATIONS TO ACHIEVE MODERNITY. BUT DEVELOPMENT ALONE WILL NOT HELP TO CURB TERRORISM. FRANCE CAN PLAY A ROLE AND SUPPORT THESE CHANGES. MEN AND NATIONS EVERYWHERE ASPIRE TO BE EQUAL BUT DIFFERENT. UNITY DOES NOT MEAN CONFORMITY. DIVERSITY IN NO WAY ENDANGERS THE UNITY OF A PEOPLE: BEFORE THE 18TH CENTURY FRANCE WAS A LIVING EXAMPLE OF THIS, TODAY IT IS THE U.S." LEACH