ELYSEE CAUTIOUS BUT ENCOURAGED ON MIKATI

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 002631

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER LE SY FR
SUBJECT: ELYSEE CAUTIOUS BUT ENCOURAGED ON MIKATI
APPOINTMENT AS LEBANESE PM

Classified By: Acting DCM Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Presidential Advisor on the Middle East Dominique
Boche expressed cautious optimism on the appointment of Najib
Mikati as Lebanese PM-designate, during a discussion with
poloff April 18. On the one hand, Boche conceded that
Mikati's background and ties to Syrian President Bashar
al-Asad were reasons to remain very cautious. On the other
hand, the manner in which Mikati was chosen, with the
opposition supporting him and thwarting an all-out Syrian
effort to back hard-liner Abdulrahim Mrad, gave reason for
hope that a government could be formed quickly and elections
could take place on time, or with a very slight delay. On
the latter point, Boche reaffirmed that the most the GoF
could accept was a technical election delay of a few weeks,
though it would not concede this publicly and would continue
to insist on respecting the May 31 deadline. (Note: The GoF
reiterated calls for Lebanese elections taking place on time
in an April 16 statement on the Mikati nomination, text in
para 4, and in a joint French-Saudi communique issued upon
conclusion of Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's visit to Paris
April 15. End note.)


2. (C) As a next step, Boche said the GoF wanted to see
Mikati move quickly to name a government of independent
ministers who could inspire confidence -- which meant giving
the opposition a say in choosing ministers, but not likely
having opposition ministers in government. The new
government would also have to move quickly to resolve the
election law issue before the end of April in order to hold
elections by May 31. On this point, Boche noted that Druze
leader Walid Jumblatt, during Paris meetings with FM Barnier
and Elysee officials April 15, had shown flexibility on
whether smaller or larger election district were used, in
contrast to the Maronite Christian elements of the
opposition, who remained attached to the smaller "qada"
districts proposal. On the issue of election observers,
Boche said President Lahoud had shown openness on accepting
international election observers during the EU troika
demarche delivered to him this past weekend -- likely a sign
of Lahoud's increased isolation and weakness.


3. (C) Asked about the recent "Letter to a French Friend," by
Hizballah Secretary-General Nasrallah published in the French
daily "Le Figaro" April 15 (which also appeared in the
Lebanese daily "Al Safir" April 13),Boche interpreted the
letter as a positive sign that Hizballah might be evolving,
though Hizballah had yet to come on board in supporting
elections on time. MFA DAS-equivalent for the Levant
Christian Jouret told us separately that Jumblatt, during his
April 15 meeting with Barnier, described the Nasrallah letter
as a sign of Hizballah's weakening position in the wake of
the Syrian pull-out and an attempt to divide the U.S. and
France on Lebanon. According to Jouret, Barnier told
Jumblatt that there were no problems between the U.S. and
France on Lebanon. (Note: The MFA spokesperson, when asked
April 15 about the Nasrallah letter and Hizballah's refusal
to disarm, "took note" of the Nasrallah letter "with
interest," but also reiterated that "concerning the
implementation of UNSCR 1559, Hizballah must enter into the
process of complete politicization; it is necessary,
naturally, that it be disarmed, as the Ta'if accords and 1559
both demand. It (UNSCR 1559) must be implemented, of course.
But things must be done in their time and context and
therefore, it is necessary to address this question in a
gradual sequential manner." End note.)


4. (U) The following is a text of the MFA statement issued
April 16 on Mikati's appointment:

Begin text.

We have taken note of the nomination of Mr. Najib Mikati, MP
and former minister, as Prime Minister by the Lebanese
President upon conclusion of parliamentary consultations. We
hope that Mr. Mikati will be able to form a government very
quickly, for which the objective will be, as he (Mikati)
himself already declared, the organization within the
institutional deadlines of legislative elections which must
allow the Lebanese people to freely express themselves. The
first task of this government will therefore be to launch the
electoral process but also to participate in the
establishment on the ground of the international commission
of inquiry on the attack against Rafik Hariri, created by
UNSCR 1595.

End text.
WOLFF