Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|
05PARIS2619 | 2005-04-18 12:03:00 | UNCLASSIFIED | Embassy Paris |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. |
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002619 |
1. MIDDLE EAST - LEBANON AND ARAB SPRING 2. G7 MEETING B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: THE PAPAL CONCLAVE AND THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL DEBATE ON THE EU CONSTITUTION REFERENDUM MAKE UP THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S COVERAGE. FRONT PAGES AND MOST EDITORIALS CONTINUE TO BE DEVOTED TO THE AFTERMATH OF PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S DISAPPOINTING PERFORMANCE LAST THURSDAY ON CONVINCING THE FRENCH TO VOTE `YES.' IN FACT THE LATEST POLL IN LE JOURNAL DU DIMANCHE SHOWS THAT ONLY 39 PERCENT FOUND THE PRESIDENT TO BE "CONVINCING." TWO SEPARATE POLLS FOR LE PARISIEN AND PARIS MATCH SHOW THAT THE `NO' VOTE IS UP TO 56 PERCENT. A SIMILAR POLL IN LIBERATION SHOWS THAT 53 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE POLLED REMAIN OPPOSED TO THE REFERENDUM, DOWN ONE PERCENT SINCE THE APRIL ONE POLL. COMMENTATORS IN GENERAL AGREE THAT PRESIDENT CHIRAC DID NOT MANAGE TO SHIFT PUBLIC OPINION, WITH LIBERATION CONTENDING THAT HE WAS "UNABLE TO UNDERSTAND" AND THEREFORE TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONS PUT TO HIM BY THE STUDENTS. LE FIGARO, COMMENTING ON THESE VARIOUS POLLS REPORTS: "THE `YES' IN AN INCREASINGLY SHAKY POSITION." THE G7 FINANCE MINISTERS' MEETING IN WASHINGTON AND THE TENSION BETWEEN CHINA AND JAPAN ARE TODAY'S MAJOR INTERNATIONAL STORIES. RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO DEVOTES ITS EDITORIAL TO THIS WEEKEND'S G7, AND WONDERS ABOUT THE "EFFECTIVENESS OF SUCH MEETINGS." (SEE PART C) THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN LEBANON SERVES AS THE BACKDROP FOR AN OP-ED BY RAN HALEVI, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH AT THE CNRS, ON THE "FRAGILE ARAB SPRING." (SEE PART C) ECONOMIC RIGHT-OF-CENTER LES ECHOS AND LE FIGARO ECONOMIE REPORT ON A STUDY COMMISSIONED BY BOEING ON THE A380 AND PUBLISHED IN YESTERDAY'S SUNDAY TIMES WHICH ALLEGES THAT AIRBUS WILL HAVE AN 8 BILLION DOLLAR NEGATIVE CASH FLOW FOR THE PERIOD 2006-2025 AND THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE TO REIMBURSE THE LOANS GRANTED BY EU GOVERNMENTS, ESTIMATED AT 2.2 MILLION EUROS PER AIRCRAFT SOLD BETWEEN NOW AND 2017. IN LE FIGARO ECONOMIE DELPHINE DENUIT WRITES: "THE HATCHET IS OUT AGAIN BETWEEN BOEING AND AIRBUS. THE VERY DETAILED STUDY COMMISSIONED BY BOEING LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE AN OUTRIGHT ATTACK ON THE A380 AND THE PROJECT'S LACK OF FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY." (C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: MIDDLE EAST - LEBANON AND ARAB SPRING "THE FRAGILE ARAB SPRING" RESEARCHER RAN HALEVI IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (04/18): "THE CRISIS IN LEBANON DOES NOT MARK THE BIRTH OF A NEW MIDDLE EAST, BUT IT HELPS TO BURY THE OLD. THE PERVERSE BUT COMFORTABLE EQUATION THAT EXISTED IN LEBANON WAS SHATTERED BY HARIRI'S ASSASSINATION. SYRIA IS LEAVING, NOT ONLY BECAUSE THE LEBANESE HAVE TAKEN TO THE STREETS. AND BECAUSE OF THE FRANCO- AMERICAN UN RESOLUTION, BUT BECAUSE THE SYRIAN REGIME CAN NO LONGER SERVE AS THE FORMER SHIELD IT WAS. BUT MUST WE SEE IN THIS LEBANESE SPRING A NATURAL CONSEQUENCE OF THE `DEMOCRATIC REVOLUTION' OF A `NEW MIDDLE EAST?' HARIRI'S ASSASSINATION SERVED AS THE DETONATOR TO A SITUATION THAT WAS ALREADY RIPE FOR CHANGE. EVEN IF IT SEEMS IMPROBABLE THAT THE LEBANESE WOULD HAVE TAKEN THE RISK OF A POPULAR REVOLUTION WITHOUT THE WAR IN IRAQ AND THE SHOCKWAVE IT TRIGGERED THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST. ONE CAN SPEAK AT LENGTH ABOUT PRESIDENT BUSH'S STRATEGY OR THE VERY DEBATABLE ARGUMENTS USED BY WASHINGTON TO JUSTIFY THE ELIMINATION OF IRAQ'S DICTATOR. THESE QUESTIONS, ALTHOUGH LEGITIMATE AS WELL AS NECESSARY, DO NOT TAKE AWAY FROM A STATEMENT OF FACT: WHILE THE LONG TERM ADVANTAGES OF THE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, WE AT LEAST KNOW WHO ARE THE LOSERS: THEY ARE THE AUTOCRATIC REGIMES OF THE MIDDLE EAST, ESPECIALLY IN THE EYES OF THEIR OWN POPULATIONS. IS THIS THEN A VICTORY OF THE SPREADING OF DEMOCRACY? WHAT REMAINS PROBLEMATIC IS THAT THOSE WHO PROMOTE THIS DOCTRINE ALSO TEND TO CONFUSE TWO DISTINCT PHENOMENA: THEY ASSIMILATE THE TASTE FOR FREEDOM. WHICH IS PART OF HUMAN NATURE, TO THE ABILITY TO CREATE DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS, WHICH IS SOMETHING THAT TAKES TIME. HENCE THE CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS ARAB SPRING, WHICH IS BOTH PROMISING BUT ALSO FRAGILE. WHEN IT COMES TO A NEW MIDDLE EAST, THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WOULD BE WELL ADVISED TO TONE DOWN ITS RHETORIC OF CONQUEST." G7 MEETING "THE G7 AND CHINA" NICOLAS BARRE IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (04/18): "THE G7 JUST DECLARED THAT THE WORLD ECONOMY IS DOING WELL AND IMMEDIATELY WENT ON TO SAY ALL THAT IS GOING WRONG WITH IT. FROM ONE G7 TO THE NEXT THE WORDING REMAINS PRACTICALLY THE SAME, WHICH LED PAUL O'NEIL TO ONCE SAY THAT THESE MEETINGS WERE USELESS. IN ANSWER TO CHINA'S CURRENCY POLICY, WHAT DID THE G7 DO? THE STRICT MINIMUM. THE CYNICS WILL SAY THAT THE U.S. HAS MORE TO LOSE IF IT PUSHED CHINA TO RE-EVALUATE THE YUAN. BUT AS LONG AS THIS ISSUE IS SIDESTEPPED BY THE WORLD'S MONEY EXPERTS, THE FAMOUS IMBALANCE ABOUT WHICH THE G7 KEEPS TALKING WILL NOT BE MADE RIGHT. IF WORDS ARE NOT FOLLOWED BY ACTION, THIS G7 WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE BEEN USELESS." WOLFF |