CHIRAC'S AFRICA ADVISOR RELAXED ON TOGO, WORRIED

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001936

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2015
TAGS: PREL TO IV CG FR
SUBJECT: CHIRAC'S AFRICA ADVISOR RELAXED ON TOGO, WORRIED
ON COTE D'IVOIRE

REF: A. LOME 280

B. LOME 289

C. LOME 290

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: According to President Chirac's Africa
advisor, the situation in Togo is not worrisome. He believes
that the elections will produce a winner, probably Faure
Gnassingbe, who will be accepted by the population. In the
case of an opposition win, ECOWAS will ensure that the
military accept the result of the poll. He expressed
frustration about Ivoirian President Gbagbo and concern over
ECOWAS plans to put pressure on the Ivoirian leader if he has
not budged by the time his mandate expires. END SUMMARY.

TOGO


2. (C) In a chance encounter on a Paris street March 22,
Embassy Africa watcher met Michel de Bonnecorse, President
Chirac's advisor on African affairs. Responding to a query
about his trip to Togo as President Chirac's personal
representative at Gnassingbe Eyadema's funeral (FM Barnier
was France's official representative),Bonnecorse offered
that the situation in Togo was "not worrying," adding that
whoever won the election would be accepted by supporters of
the other candidate.


3. (C) Without mentioning Interior Minister Akila-Esso Boko's
concerns expressed to Ambassador Engle (Ref C),Africa
watcher queried whether there was a risk that if Faure
Gnassingbe won, there would be protests on the street, and if
Emmanuel Akitani-Bob won, the army would refuse to accept the
result. Bonnecorse replied that ECOWAS was putting pressure
on "the generals" to ensure that the latter scenario did not
play out. Without stating a preference for Gnassingbe (Ref
A),Bonnecorse added that it was not certain that Akitani-Bob
would win in any case.


4. (C) Bonnecorse expressed interest in Gilchrist Olympio's
meeting with Ambassador Engle (Ref B). Africa watcher
responded that it had appeared that Olympio and his UFC
colleagues had expressed no strategy for the elections.
Bonnecorse replied "as always!" Bonnecorse added that
Olympio's only platform was "TSF" (Tout Sauf Faure - Anyone
Except Faure). Continuing on Olympio, Bonnecorse said that
Akitani-Bob, should he win the election, would stand aside
and call new elections as soon as Olympio had met the
constitutional residency requirement. Asked whether the GoF
anticipated that Olympio would return to Paris, Bonnecorse
replied that the UFC leader would "come and go" between Paris
and Lome for the foreseeable future.

COTE D'IVOIRE


5. (C) Bonnecorse told us that he had visited Mali following
his attendance at Eyadema's funeral. He told us that ECOWAS
was planning to exert some kind of pressure (NFI) on Ivoirian
President Gbagbo if he had not "budged" by the time his
mandate expired in October. This, according to Bonnecorse,
created a dangerous situation as it was obvious that Gbagbo
had no intention of budging. In response to our suggestion
that it was becoming increasingly obvious that elections
would not take place in October, Bonnecorse agreed, saying he
had believed until February that elections were possible, but
not now.

DRC and CONGO/B


6. (C) Bonnecorse told us that following an Easter vacation,
he would be traveling to Kinshasa and Brazzaville.


7. (C) COMMENT: Although the circumstances of the meeting
did not allow for full discussion, we note that while
Bonnecorse appeared to believe that Gnassingbe would win the
Togolese elections, he admitted the possibility of an
opposition win. While Bonnecorse, consistent with dismissive
remarks by other GoF officials who have described Olympio to
us as a "has-been," was critical of the UFC leader, his
interest in the UFC leader's meeting with Ambassador Engle
suggests to us that, with the death of Eyadema, Bonnecorse
considers that Olympio and the UFC may yet be a force to be
reckoned with. END COMMENT.
Leach