CHIRAC'S AFRICA ADVISOR RELAXED ON TOGO, WORRIED

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001936 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2015 TAGS: PREL TO IV CG FR SUBJECT: CHIRAC'S AFRICA ADVISOR RELAXED ON TOGO, WORRIED ON COTE D'IVOIRE REF: A. LOME 280 ¶B. LOME 289 ¶C. LOME 290 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: According to President Chirac's Africa advisor, the situation in Togo is not worrisome. He believes that the elections will produce a winner, probably Faure Gnassingbe, who will be accepted by the population. In the case of an opposition win, ECOWAS will ensure that the military accept the result of the poll. He expressed frustration about Ivoirian President Gbagbo and concern over ECOWAS plans to put pressure on the Ivoirian leader if he has not budged by the time his mandate expires. END SUMMARY. TOGO ¶2. (C) In a chance encounter on a Paris street March 22, Embassy Africa watcher met Michel de Bonnecorse, President Chirac's advisor on African affairs. Responding to a query about his trip to Togo as President Chirac's personal representative at Gnassingbe Eyadema's funeral (FM Barnier was France's official representative),Bonnecorse offered that the situation in Togo was "not worrying," adding that whoever won the election would be accepted by supporters of the other candidate. ¶3. (C) Without mentioning Interior Minister Akila-Esso Boko's concerns expressed to Ambassador Engle (Ref C),Africa watcher queried whether there was a risk that if Faure Gnassingbe won, there would be protests on the street, and if Emmanuel Akitani-Bob won, the army would refuse to accept the result. Bonnecorse replied that ECOWAS was putting pressure on "the generals" to ensure that the latter scenario did not play out. Without stating a preference for Gnassingbe (Ref A),Bonnecorse added that it was not certain that Akitani-Bob would win in any case. ¶4. (C) Bonnecorse expressed interest in Gilchrist Olympio's meeting with Ambassador Engle (Ref B). Africa watcher responded that it had appeared that Olympio and his UFC colleagues had expressed no strategy for the elections. Bonnecorse replied "as always!" Bonnecorse added that Olympio's only platform was "TSF" (Tout Sauf Faure - Anyone Except Faure). Continuing on Olympio, Bonnecorse said that Akitani-Bob, should he win the election, would stand aside and call new elections as soon as Olympio had met the constitutional residency requirement. Asked whether the GoF anticipated that Olympio would return to Paris, Bonnecorse replied that the UFC leader would "come and go" between Paris and Lome for the foreseeable future. COTE D'IVOIRE ¶5. (C) Bonnecorse told us that he had visited Mali following his attendance at Eyadema's funeral. He told us that ECOWAS was planning to exert some kind of pressure (NFI) on Ivoirian President Gbagbo if he had not "budged" by the time his mandate expired in October. This, according to Bonnecorse, created a dangerous situation as it was obvious that Gbagbo had no intention of budging. In response to our suggestion that it was becoming increasingly obvious that elections would not take place in October, Bonnecorse agreed, saying he had believed until February that elections were possible, but not now. DRC and CONGO/B ¶6. (C) Bonnecorse told us that following an Easter vacation, he would be traveling to Kinshasa and Brazzaville. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Although the circumstances of the meeting did not allow for full discussion, we note that while Bonnecorse appeared to believe that Gnassingbe would win the Togolese elections, he admitted the possibility of an opposition win. While Bonnecorse, consistent with dismissive remarks by other GoF officials who have described Olympio to us as a "has-been," was critical of the UFC leader, his interest in the UFC leader's meeting with Ambassador Engle suggests to us that, with the death of Eyadema, Bonnecorse considers that Olympio and the UFC may yet be a force to be reckoned with. END COMMENT. Leach