(C) MFA OFFICIAL RETHINKS PUTIN'S ABILITIES, URGES

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001573 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV FR YI RU SUBJECT: (C) MFA OFFICIAL RETHINKS PUTIN'S ABILITIES, URGES DISCRETION ON OPTIONS FOR KOSOVO REF: A. PARIS 1527 ¶B. PARIS 1528 ¶C. 2/22 KUJAWINSKI-ALLEGRONE E-MAIL Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR JOSIAH ROSENBLATT, FOR REAS ONS 1.4 B/D ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: Jean-Francois Terral, A/S-equivalent for Russia, the former Soviet space, and the Balkans, discussed a full range of related issues March 8 with POL M/C, with a particular focus on Russia and Kosovo. On Russia, Terral appeared more positive than expected on relations with the EU, and more negative than expected on President Putin and domestic Russian issues. Regarding Kosovo, he urged that Contact Group members state publicly that all options except a return to the past are on the table, in order to ensure Serb participation. He emphasized, though, that this was a question of tactics, and that France fully understood the direction the Quint was taking on Kosovo. Discussions on the ICTY indictment of Ramush Haradinaj and the March 18 France-Germany-Russia-Spain meeting are reported at reftels A and B, respectively. End summary and comment. FRENCH ANALYSIS OF RUSSIA ¶2. (C) Terral began discussion of Russia by stating that French and American analyses of Russia are not very different, notwithstanding disagreements on nuances. The Russian transition to democracy was a very long process, he said, and Russia was starting from very far back. Furthermore, the Russian people were more interested in personal security and their country's influence than democratization. Russians believe their country is in a position of weakness internationally, an opinion that has only deepened following the events in Beslan and Ukraine. France's Russia specialists discuss Russia regularly with counterparts in Germany and the UK, said Terral, and would like to engage in similar conversations with the U.S. Terral said he raised the idea of a U.S.-France conference on Russia in May with the MFA's Policy Planning-equivalent, and he hoped that such exchanges might occur regularly. ¶3. (C) Turning to domestic events in Russia, Terral said France was concerned that Putin was becoming increasingly authoritarian and paradoxically, that his power was at the same time weak and ineffective. Initially, France had not been overly uncomfortable with the Yukos affair, said Terral, because the French are sympathetic to the idea that the state should exercise control over its natural resources. As an aside, though, Terral said the latest moves by the Russian government to dismantle Yukos were becoming less comprehensible, and smacked of "irrationality." Terral said that France, with its history of strong central control over its regions, also understood Putin's decision to appoint regional governors instead of submitting them to elections. Despite this tendency to "understand" recent Russian actions, French policymakers have become "a bit hesitant" regarding their analyses since Putin's handling of Beslan and the Ukraine election, said Terral. With regard to Ukraine, the Russians "acted like imbeciles." In the Caucasus, Russia is "behaving very badly." Although the French, said Terral, do not see an alternative to Putin, they have begun to wonder whether Putin is capable of managing his responsibilities. (Comment: The clear sense given by Terral that the French establishment was shocked by Putin's recent missteps and is rethinking their confidence in his abilities was echoed March 9, when Poloff attended a conference on Russia sponsored by a prominent think tank with very close ties to the GOF. The packed hall, filled with generals, prefects and other government elites, asked the same types of questions that Terral raised, specifically mentioning Russian blundering in Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. End comment) ¶4. (C) Despite concerns that Putin and his government were beginning to act irrationally, Terral said he was "not fundamentally pessimistic" regarding Russia-EU relations. The French were pleased that the Russians had accepted the right of the EU to discuss common concerns involving states that border Russia and the EU. On Chechnya, the French believed that Russia was moving in the right direction with the acknowledgment that the conflict there was not purely a security issue. Most important for Russia-EU relations, said Terral, was conclusion of negotiations on the "four spaces" of cooperation before the May 10 Russia-EU summit. The "education/culture" space was completed, the "economic" space was nearly completed, the "justice/interior" space still had significant problems, and the most problematic remained the "external security" space, said Terral. ¶5. (C) POL M/C asked Terral for President Chirac's analysis of Russia, especially following the dinner between Presidents Bush and Chirac, where Chirac advanced a number of differing points regarding Russia and Ukraine. Terral said it was no secret that Chirac cultivated a very close relationship with SIPDIS Putin and was especially focused on Russia as the overwhelming influence in the former Soviet space. Furthermore, said Terral, Chirac does not follow issues in the region on a day-to-day basis, and he perhaps saw certain aspects of Ukraine's evolution that would prove problematic for Russia. Terral added that Chirac does not inform the MFA of his thinking on Russia. (Comment: As discussed reftel C, Chirac tends to see events in the former Soviet space through a Russia-centric lens, as Terral implied. The French president's overarching goal remains the cultivation of close relations with Russia, and more specifically, with Putin. This focus tends to blur Chirac's vision when looking at any other countries in the former Soviet space. Prominent French researcher on Russia and the former Soviet space Anne de Tinguy made a similar point during the March 9 conference, saying that historically, France focuses on Russia, and the "absence" of a French policy on Ukraine, for example, has been a great loss, especially in view of recent events. End comment.) TERRAL URGES PUBLIC DISCRETION ON OPTIONS FOR KOSOVO ¶6. (S) Terral began discussion of Kosovo by noting that, in the Quint, the UK, the U.S. and Germany appear to have accelerated their thinking regarding final status options. He said France firmly believed in "standards before status" and well understood that discussion was moving towards "conditional independence" for Kosovo. France is not standing in the way of that outcome. Nevertheless, he cautioned that, politically and symbolically, it was of vital importance to state publicly that all options regarding Kosovo's future are on the table, save only a return to the past. Given Serbia's historic role as the "pillar" of the region, and its particular role regarding Kosovo, the international community "must get the Serbs to the table," Terral said. The Serbs feel "beaten" and this, coupled with their historical grievances, make their inclusion all the more important. Dangling EU membership to reward Serb behavior was not a "magic potion," said Terral. Many Serbs are more focused on the past than on the future, given that the international community could not overly pressure the Serbs and expect success in Kosovo. ¶7. (C) Regarding next steps, Terral said he understood USG reluctance to seize the UN Security Council on Kosovo, but that such a move was necessary to "keep the Russians with us." If Russia didn't work with the Contact Group, said Terral, it would work against it. When asked for Chirac's opinion on Kosovo, Terral reiterated what he had said before; namely, that Chirac often did not make his opinions known to the MFA. However, the MFA had received signs from the Presidency to go slow on final status discussions, and to make sure that all options remained on the table. That being said, Terral said Chirac had not focused on Kosovo. However, Terral noted that Kosovo was moving to the front burner of intra-EU and French inter-agency discussions. Leach