FRENCH HOSTAGE VIDEO RAISES SPECULATION ON A

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001401 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2014 TAGS: PREL IZ FR SY LE SUBJECT: FRENCH HOSTAGE VIDEO RAISES SPECULATION ON A SYRIAN CONNECTION REF: A. 04 STATE 9098 ¶B. 04 STATE 7316 Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) The March 1 release of a videotape showing missing French journalist Florence Aubenas pleading for assistance from a pro-Syrian French MP has plunged the GoF into its second Iraq hostage crisis in recent months and sparked widespread French press speculation of a Syria hand in Aubenas' kidnapping, in retaliation for French pressure for Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. The MP in question, Didier Julia, is reputed to sympathize with the SARG and the former Iraqi regime and is notorious for his failed, apparently fraudulent effort to secure the release of former Iraq hostages Christian Chesnot and Georges Malbrunot (ref b) in October 2004. Julia and two associates face an ongoing GoF judicial investigation "for involvement with a foreign power" in pursuing their earlier hostage release scheme, which was carried out from Damascus and coincided with the same period in which the U.S. and France pursued adoption of UNSCR 1559. Aubenas' employer, the French daily "Liberation," speculated March 3 that her kidnapping had originally been a criminal act, but was "politically hijacked" to pressure President Chirac for his insistence on Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. Meanwhile, UMP Deputy and former GoF anti-terrorism judge Alain Marsaud told reporters of his personal conclusion that the Aubenas affair represented an "enormous manipulation" on Syria's part, and that a Syrian connection to the hostage-takers would not be surprising. ¶2. (SBU) Since Aubenas' disappearance in Baghdad January 5, the GoF had been handling her case in a discreet manner, in sharp contrast to the high-level French diplomatic and media mobilization which followed the hostage-taking of journalists Chesnot and Malbrunot in August 2004 (ref a). The new linkage to Julia has put the GoF on the defensive with few other leads to pursue, as press reports suggest the GoF has not received any communication or demands from the hostage-takers. Complicating matters further, MP Julia has declared his readiness to help secure Aubenas' release if the GoF gives him "liberty of action," while adding that he "probably knew the hostage-takers," and that they likely appreciated his views. French PM Rafarrin, speaking before the National Assembly March 2, called upon Didier to share all relevant information on the Aubenas case with the French DGSE (CIA-equivalent) and ruled out "parallel diplomacy" on anyone else's part. Rafarrin also confirmed that the March 1 video was the second tape of Aubenas which the GoF had received, said the GoF had been unable to determine the time of creation of either tape, or whether images had been fabricated. Rafarrin's public appeal for Didier's cooperation has generated some criticism among the French Socialist opposition, who assailed the French PM for allowing the wayward MP to derail GoF efforts. ¶3. (C) Comment: There is no proof of a Syrian connection to the Aubenas case, though the Didier Julia angle, lack of information on the kidnappers, and timing of the video release all raise serious questions. French officials have been tight-lipped on the Aubenas case, referring us to FM Barnier and PM Rafarrin's public statements and claiming ignorance on further details, particularly the Syria connection. At the same time, we find the same MFA officials are being more open than before in describing Syria's destabilizing role in Iraq; the MFA DAS-equivalent for Iraq/Iran told us March 2 that he had underestimated the degree of cooperation between Syrian and Iraqi intelligence and the extent of cross-border tribal connections prior to the fall of Saddam's regime, and assessed that Syria was involved in most of the insurgent activity taking place in the western al-Anbar province, "from the border to Ramadi." While the Aubenas case means a new headache for the GoF, we do not see signs that it is having an effect on the GoF's insistence on a full, immediate Syrian pull-out from Lebanon or slowing GoF engagement in Iraq, in the way that French relations with the IIG were strained by the four-month Chesnot/Malbrunot hostage saga. On the contrary, the Aubenas case appears to be further hardening French attitudes towards Syria, amid widespread public sympathy and support for the "Cedar Revolution." End comment. ¶4. (U) Baghdad minimize considered. Leach