CANADIAN CONSERVATIVES HIT A DOUBLE AT CONVENTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000860

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN CONSERVATIVES HIT A DOUBLE AT CONVENTION

REF: QUEBEC 00035


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Conservative Party of Canada held its
biennial convention in Montreal March 17 to 19. It was the
party's first policy and leadership review convention since
the merger of the Progressive Conservative and Canadian
Alliance parties in December 2003. On issues such as
abortion and same-sex marriage, the party portrayed a
reasonable balance between the staunch social conservative
wing that wants to stand firm on principle and let the
country move in its direction, and the more progressive
moderates who believe a centrist position is the party's
only hope of ever governing. The Conservatives also managed
a high-stakes issue that threatened to split the party
during the constitutional session, and leader Stephen Harper
passed his first leadership review with 84 percent approval.
The convention will likely provide a slight bounce in the
polls, but not the kind of breakthrough in urban Ontario and
Quebec that the Tories needs to win an election. The
Conservatives have now established a strong base camp, but
have a good deal of climbing ahead if they are to reach the
summit. END SUMMARY.

At Last, a Policy Book to Call Our Own
--------------


2. (SBU) Having never had a policy convention, the
Conservatives were at a disadvantage during the 2004
election. Their lack of a declared policy agenda allowed
the Liberals to contend that the Conservatives were masking
a "hidden agenda," particularly on issues such as same-sex
marriage and abortion. This convention was the first
opportunity the Conservatives have had to clearly spell out
the party's positions, while showing a united front between
the merged factions. By holding the convention in Montreal
and having French-speakers prominent, they also hoped to
make inroads in Quebec, and by having younger conservatives
at the podium, hoped to make gains in urban Ontario.


3. (SBU) The convention was held at the massive convention
center (Palais de Congres) with a large Canadian flag as the
wall centrepiece, and was a mix of caucuses, plenary
decision meetings, and well-funded social gatherings. The
2,900 delegates came in scruffy western attire, urban chic,
and bright yellow Harper t-shirts. Poloff, PolFSN, and
Montreal CG attended and met with dozens of delegates.
Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper made the keynote
address on March 18, and former Progressive Conservative
leader Brian Mulroney was prominently featured in the video
presentation that introduced the leader. Harper listed a
litany of "scandalous" conduct on the part of the governing
Liberals, from the ad-sponsorship scandal, the gun registry,
"strippergate" and others. Harper turned the refrain of
Prime Minister Martin's convention speech, "Promises Made,
Promises Kept" to a lengthy review of "Promises Made,
Promises Broken." Harper dismissed the Bloc Quebecois as a
political force, saying they were incapable of instituting
change, even if the stayed around for another 100 years.


4. (SBU) Media predictions that issues such as same-sex
marriage and abortion would never make the floor in a
tightly-scripted show were wrong - they did and were
vigorously debated, in what in the end was a mix of center
and rightist positions that accurately reflects the party's
dilemma of how far to stray from its roots to attract new
voters. The willingness to compromise on social values
comes from the sense that the party is finally moving in the
direction of actually being able to win an election, and not
just criticizing the governing Liberals. The party wants to
keep this momentum without losing its soul in the process.
It causes a good deal of creative tension that was evident
on the floor.


5. (SBU) One key measure, a pledge that the party would not
introduce new anti-abortion legislation, was passed by a
very close margin, and its success was greeted with loud
applause. On same-sex marriage, however, appeals from
moderate progressives such as Belinda Stronach that too
strong a position would alienate the party from mainstream
Canada were dismissed. The party voted 75-25 in favor of a
measure that affirmed the party's position that marriage is
between one man and one woman. The party also abandoned
populist resolutions for recall rules for Members of
Parliament, fixed-date elections and referendums on issues
of national importance, all pillars of the earlier Canadian
Alliance party. Other noteworthy resolutions called to
expand the Canadian Forces, cut taxes, repeal the federal
gun registry, address the fiscal imbalance, and make the
appointment of senior officials (Supreme Court, Auditor
General, Ethics Commissioner, etc.) an accountable process.
Though it was not a stand-alone policy resolution, Stephen
Harper also referred to missile defense in his keynote
address, stating that while the Conservatives would not sign
up for an agreement they have not seen, they would return to
the table on missile defense and other issues with the
United States.

Constitutional Conflict Overblown
--------------


6. (SBU) One of the most contentious issues faced by the
party was a constitutional resolution forwarded by Ontario
MP Scott Reid that would have tied the delegate selection
process to the number of party members in a riding, allowing
ridings with more party members (predominantly in the former
Canadian Alliance West) to send more delegates. Deputy
leader Peter MacKay was livid over the idea, which he
maintained violated a founding principle of the merger of
the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives that all
ridings would be treated equally. He was concerned that the
move would alienate regions where the party was weak and
thus destroy any potential these ridings had to develop
through active participation. The issue was the highlight
of CBC's afternoon radio broadcast and the print media, and
it trumped Harper's keynote speech, even though all the
delegates we talked to insisted that the resolution was a
non-issue and bound to fail, which it did handily. The
coverage resulted in Conservative complaints of media bias.

Don't Trust Anybody Under 30
--------------


7. (SBU) The Conservatives were also narrowly split on
whether to create a youth wing along the lines of the former
Progressive Conservative Youth, or the current Young
Liberals of Canada. The confused process called for
delegates to vote for one of three options, and the status
quo (i.e. no youth wing) was selected. Status quo advocates
argued that if young people are interested, they will join
the party and participate as regular members, and not be
shunted off to a youth ghetto. Youth wing advocates argued
that the party needs to reach out to youth and provide a
forum where they can better develop their issues and have
their input valued. It does not appear that either side of
the debate is familiar with the Young Liberals of Canada,
who have a deep policy agenda, great enthusiasm and energy,
and demonstrated the highest level of organization of all
commissions at the recent Liberal Party Convention. Absent
a youth wing, the Conservative Party will minimal presence
on Canada's university campuses, and the party will not have
access to the same ready-made, energetic and organized
volunteers as the Liberals.

Stephen Harper at the Helm
--------------


8. (SBU) A key event was the referendum on Stephen Harper's
leadership. A small lobby handing out anti-Harper buttons
and pamphlets early in the convention appeared to have
little impact as Harper garnered an 84 percent approval
rate. One anti-Harper delegate tried to convince a group of
colleagues on their way to vote after Harper's Friday night
speech, but her argument amounted to "trust me, I know,"
something the delegates found amusing. In reality there was
no real alternative for a party trying to show unity and
strength to sticking up for Harper. To his credit, he has
done a fine job of strengthening the party and bringing the
various factions together. Many party members at the
Convention described his address Friday night as his best
performance to date, and Montreal CG, Poloff and PolFSN in
attendance saw a Harper who was secure and upbeat. In
English and French, both the delivery and the message were
fully on cue.


9. (SBU) As it did at the Liberal convention, the media felt
compelled to throw out names of possible Harper successors,
but had a more difficult time doing so as there was no
campaign, even behind the scenes, to develop an alternative
to Harper's leadership. Members of Parliament Peter MacKay
and Belinda Stronach were mentioned, as was Premier of New
Brunswick, Bernard Lord. The latter would appear to be the
most interesting. Two delegates told Poloff that as much as
they like Harper personally, until the party picks an
Easterner as leader, the center of gravity will remain stuck
in the West. This would keep the party unable to penetrate
essential ridings in voter-rich Ontario and Quebec.
Stronach is also someone to watch; her three interventions
on the floor (pro same-sex marriage, pro-US trade, and pro-
youth wing) were clearly meant to establish her as the
progressive, centrist alternative to the Western cul-de-sac,
even though in the House of Commons she appears to play
second fiddle to Alberta's Rona Ambrose.

Quebec - The "Show Me" Province
--------------


10. (SBU) According the Conservative MPs Jason Kenny and Jay
Hill, the party selected Montreal as the location for its
convention to garner attention in Quebec, as well as,
indirectly, in southern, urban Ontario. Several young
Conservative delegates agreed that prior to the convention
there was simply no coverage of the party in Quebec media.
The Montreal venue would finally bring the party back into
the provincial line-of-sight. They also pointed out that it
was clear from his speech that Harper's ability in French is
rapidly improving. Reftel provides views from Quebec City
on how effective the party's outreach in the Province may
have been.


11. (SBU) COMMENT: Only time, and public opinion polls,
will tell if the Conservatives successfully managed the
opportunity to define their polices and address the negative
impressions the Liberals have thus far so successfully
exploited. They may have placed themselves on the radar in
Quebec, but appear to lack the potential for a breakthrough
they need to win an election. As was the case with the
Liberals, post-convention rhetoric is of high energy levels
and confidence to face the polls. It will take a federal
election campaign (now rumored for next spring),however, to
demonstrate whether they can take the foundation they built
at the convention and use it to build a credible alternative
to the Liberals. END COMMENT.