A KINDER, GENTLER BLOC QUEBECOIS TAKES TO THE ROAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000428

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2009
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: A KINDER, GENTLER BLOC QUEBECOIS TAKES TO THE ROAD

Classified By: Polmincouns Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (C) Summary: Bloc Quebecois leader Gilles Duceppe has
taken his message of the advantages of separation on a quiet,
but successful tour of Canada, and now plans to take the
message abroad. While gaining little direct support for
separatism, he has improved the Bloc,s public image and his
national profile. Duceppe is enjoying high popularity levels
in Quebec, and with Liberal and Conservative rifts and
increasing NDP irrelevance, he is currently the most
successful federal party leader. Opinion polls put Duceppe
in the lead as the person Quebecers most want to succeed
Bernard Landry, leader of the provincial separatist Party
Quebecois, but it seems unlikely he would leave a successful
national position, especially given the constant possibility
of elections. While some analysts were predicting in the
fall that the Bloc had hit its high water mark and could go
no where but down, it appears to retain constant support in
Quebec, and the persistent reminder of the sponsorship
scandal as the Gomery inquiry grinds on could even peel a few
more seats away from the Liberals. End Summary

THE BLOC CHARM OFFENSIVE
--------------


2. (SBU) Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe recently
engaged in what the Bloc calls the Tourne du Canada, a sort
of Charm Offensive, the apparent goal of which is to take the
edge off of separatism and raise the profile of the party as
a supportable national entity. Duceppe gave presentations
across Canada beginning with a briefing to the diplomatic
corps in Ottawa, attended by Polmincouns and Poloff. The
well-prepared power point briefing showed high levels of
support for separatism and generously laid out the rightness
of the Bloc,s cause. Slick information packets were given
to attendees extolling the benefits of separation for
Quebecers, other Canadians, and the world. Duceppe lamented
the cultural loss for Canada if Quebec became its own
country, but assured the audience that the rest of Canada
would somehow muddle forward as it developed its own culture.



3. (SBU) The choice of venues appeared to be more demand than
supply driven, and included the Economic Club of Toronto, the
Francophone Press Club of Manitoba, Saskatchewan,s Institute
of Public Policy, the University of Regina, and the Calgary
Chamber of Commerce. Duceppe also called on the Premiers of
New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Press coverage varied but was
fairly minimal.


4. (C) Despite the somewhat disorganized pattern of stops, in
a meeting February 9 with Poloff, Bloc MPs Pierre Paquette
and Christian Simard indicated that the party was very
pleased with the outcome of the tour, and of the reception
their leader received. They said that Duceppe was warmly
welcomed as the leader of a federal opposition party, which
was decidedly not the case when he traveled after the 1995
sovereignty referendum. The MPs speculate that because there
is a Liberal government in Quebec and no referendum on the
horizon, it is easier for people outside of Quebec to accept
Mr. Duceppe and hear the Bloc position out.


5. (C) To further extend support for the Bloc as a potential
partner, Duceppe has also woven the current Bloc mantra of
fiscal imbalance into the tour,s message, something which
resonates in a number of provinces outside of Quebec. The
fiscal imbalance is the perfect tool by which the Bloc can
forward the idea that Quebec would be better off as a
sovereign state while at the same time using examples that
all the provinces would be able to relate to such as housing
and employment insurance.

A TAKEOVER OF THE PARTI QUEBECOIS
--------------


6. (C) A sidebar to the roadshow is the possibility that
Duceppe is using his prominence to position himself to take
over the Parti Quebecois from Bernard Landry. The PQ lost
the Quebec provincial election in 2003 and has lost further
support since. Despite having recently received the French
Legion of Honour for developing Franco-Quebecois relations,
Landry still faces much of the blame for the decline of the
party. But when speaking to the youth wing of the Bloc
Quebecois in early February, Duceppe said he had every
intention of leading the Bloc into the next election, and he
was confident Landry would be leading the Parti Quebecois.
Suffice it to say that his new prominence as an influential
leader will provide Duceppe a bright future with a number of
possibilities.

THE BLOC ON THE HILL
--------------


7. (C) In addition to softening the image of the Bloc,
Duceppe has been reasonably effective in leading the party on
the Hill. With Paul Martin and Stephen Harper facing
increasing party divisions and Jack Layton facing the reality
of how little 19 seats buys in Parliament, the Bloc has
emerged as a force to be reckoned with. It is the most
internally consistent party, and Duceppe has been able to
effectively move the Bloc,s limited agenda forward. The
Bloc has, however, been leery of too close alignment with the
Conservatives and both parties know that a united opposition
is impossible. But they were able to reach a compromise on
the Throne Speech that covered both side,s objectives, and
have formed temporary alliances with all parties on certain
legislation and supply day motions. The next big test of
alliance building will be the budget, and MP Paquette says it
will be difficult for the Bloc to support the Conservative
motion but impossible for the two sides to ignore each other
if they are to succeed.


8. (C) Always in the background is the prospect of elections.
Cross-Canada polling numbers demonstrate that Canadians are
not in the mood for a snap election, which is forcing Liberal
Martin and Conservative Harper to try to avoid even the
mention of the E word. Duceppe is taking nothing for granted
in the upcoming budget debate, however, and has ordered all
fifty-four Bloc MPs to be on call if elections are necessary.
The Bloc is confident of its chances if it comes to this.


9. Comment: Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Quebecois appear to
have lost none of the strength they gained in last year,s
election. Duceppe enjoys very high popularity numbers in
Quebec, and leads a unified party. And to the extent the
party rode in on the coattails of the &Adscam8 sponsorship
scandal, they apparently still have something to ride. The
past two days, with appearances by former PM Chretien and PM
Martin have been a display of arrogance and confusion that
can only rekindle the flames of anger that shifted so many
seats in Quebec from Liberals to the Bloc to begin with. It
is even possible that the longer the scandal drags on, the
embarrassment of the Liberals will contrast ever more sharply
with the competence of the Bloc to swing more voters in their
direction. The Bloc certainly has little to fear from early
elections. End Comment

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