CANADIAN POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000395

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR S/P, S/CRS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN CA KCRS
SUBJECT: CANADIAN POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: THE
STORIES TO WATCH IN 2005

Classified By: PolMinCouns Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (SBU) Summary: A tan, rested, and combative Parliament
returned this week ready to get down to business. The buzz
on Parliament Hill was higher than normal as the MPs --
energized by their enhanced role in the minority government
-- begin to tackle a host of divisive issues. While most
agree that 2005 will not see an election (although there is
less conviction about this than previously),a range of
issues including same-sex marriage, missile defense, and the
budget will keep sparks flying. It will also be an important
year for the parties, as the Conservatives attempt to break
out of their Western stronghold and truly go national, and
the Bloc continues its extreme makeover as the friendly
separatists next door. International relations will also get
a fresh read with the rollout of the long-overdue
International Policy Review. Here is our take on the stories
to watch. End Summary

OTTAWA,S TOP TEN LIST
--------------


2. (SBU) Same-Sex Marriage: Okay, of course this is a
no-brainer in making the top ten, but it may turn out to be
the story of the year. Initial soundings are that the bill,
which just had its first reading, will be debated for several
weeks, tying up a good deal of Parliament,s attention and
driving fissures in the Liberal and possibly even
Conservative Parties. It will go to second reading in March,
on to committee, and finally to a vote in June.
Conservatives will try to use the issue to peel off immigrant
votes from the Liberals and to establish themselves as the
party of &normal8 Canadians. But if the Liberals can
position themselves as the protectors of the Charter of
Rights, they will trump the Conservative's ethnic minority
politics and come out ahead. There will not be a more
important, or a more divisive issue, for either party. In an
extreme scenario, it could yet bring down the government,
although when both Martin and Harper said in January that
they were willing to go to elections over the issue, the
clear message from the electorate was &you better not.8
Elections over same-sex marriage would be the result of a
misstep.

Prediction: Same-Sex marriage will pass by a narrow margin
in June after a raucous debate.


3. (SBU) Budget Debate: The budget will be presented in late
February and debated for about three weeks. This is the only
certain confidence vote that must be addressed and will bring
folks off the benches in debate and ultimately in the vote.
The opposition will have more input to the budget than under
a more common majority government, and while there is nothing
like the U.S. pork-barrel funding process, back-bench MPs
tell us that there will be intense horse-trading amongst the
parties on funding for pet programs. The government has
presumably learned from the experience of the Throne Speech
and the first term, and will anticipate this by building into
the budget the sorts of things key MPs will want. More
interesting will be how to manage the cuts requested by
Conservatives (Conservatives to Bloc -- we,ll trade you 100
million in cuts for 100 million in spending?) Fortuitously,
there is a healthy surplus to manage any new spending.

Prediction: A lengthier and louder debate than normal leads
to a generous social budget that passes without too much
angst.


4. (C) Missile Defense: One Liberal MP believes that PM
Martin is waiting for the first cattle to move south before
he presents missile defense for a vote in order to shore up
good will among the MPs. Others believe he is hesitating
because he doesn,t have a clear proposal to put to the
members. In any case, the campaign strategists in the PMO
continue to agonize over potential vote losses in Ontario and
Quebec if the government declares in favor. Either way there
doesn,t appear to be any urgency in the matter and it is
possible that the missile defense debate could be delayed
until June or even later. Martin could also be trying to
minimize the number of high-profile issues at any given time
that will expose fissures in the Liberal caucus.

Prediction: Continued dithering with no real desire on the
part of the government to deal with this emotional issue.
Positive or negative missile defense vote in June, October,
or December.

5. (SBU) Conservative Convention: The Conservatives will hold
their first policy convention March 17-19 in Montreal. This
will be a ground-breaking event that will allow the
Conservatives to finally define exactly what the party stands
for. In the process it hopes to shore up its internal
position, allowing it to break out of its Western isolation
and go mainstream. It will also be an informal referendum on
Stephen Harper,s leadership.

Prediction: The convention will be well-managed and will give
a fresh shine to the Conservatives, whose place in the polls
will most likely remain stuck in the 28-30 percent range.


6. (SBU) Liberal Party Convention: The Liberals will hold
their convention March 3-6 in Ottawa. The recent winter
retreat in New Brunswick yielded five key resolutions, around
which the party will organize the convention:
-- Gender-Based tax policy reform to improve women,s
economic equality.
-- New climate change plans that would reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
-- Financial commitments for early learning and child
care.
-- New funding for post-secondary education.
-- Implementation of recommendations of PM,s task
force on active living and dignity for seniors.
There will also be a resolution from the Quebec
Liberals and the Young Liberals of Canada against Missile
Defense, which could produce some sparks.
The convention is not as important as the
Conservative,s, but will showcase the Liberal Party for
better or worse. Coming on the heels of PM Martin,s
appearance before the Gomery Commission, it could be a chance
to take some of the scuff marks off the Liberal,s shoes, but
it could also be the first chance old Chretienites have had
to grumble since Martin was elected leader. Martin will face
a formal leadership review that he is expected to handily
survive.

Prediction: The Liberals will come across as more divided
than they would like to appear. Little of substance will
emerge from the convention.


7. (C) International Policy Review: The IPR was recently
returned by the PM to its handlers in FAC because it lacked a
&big idea.8 With or without a big idea, FAC was hoping to
get the document published before the budget, since it will
presumably support foreign affairs spending in the
parliamentary debate. It will probably go through one more
draft, in which one of its core concepts will be sharpened to
make up the new approach. But the heart of the document will
still be an emphasis on the army over the other services as
the best equipped to make a difference in global hot spots
(but without a push to develop the capabilities to go to the
hottest of the hot spots; warm or even cold spots would be
fine); a push to increase the size of Canada,s diplomatic
presence; and an effort to focus Canada,s aid on fewer but
more strategically important countries.

Prediction: The draft IPR informs the budget and is used to
support key programs, but the document itself doesn,t roll
out until April, two months later.


8. (C) International Leadership: Ottawa is searching for an
opportunity for Canada to take a leadership role somewhere in
the world. Haiti has come up, as has the Middle East. While
still very risk averse (both politically and practically),
Canada will continue to take on the Iraqi election mission
through the coming rounds. It is a challenge to take on a
larger mission given its pinched resources and serious
aversion to casualties, but the upsides of neutrality and
global trust are difficult to ignore. If Canada looks hard
enough, and has some quiet encouragement and coordination
(but not public flogging) from us, something may turn up.

Prediction: Canada will give careful consideration to taking
on a mid-sized mission like Haiti for the long term.


9. (SBU) Elections: This will probably be a non-story, as
most observers do not believe there will be an election this
year. It should always be kept in mind, however, in what is
now becoming cliche, that this government is always &just
one misstep away from an election.8

Prediction: No elections in 2005.


10. (C) Gomery Investigation: The "Adscam" sponsorship
scandal, in which the Chretien Government awarded millions of
dollars in contracts to Liberal Party supporters in a
procedure that federal Auditor General Sheila Fraser said
&broke just about every rule in the book,8 continues to
limp along. The electorate (except perhaps in Quebec)
appears to have largely forgiven the Liberals, after
punishing them mercilessly at the polls in the June election.
But the Conservatives hope the investigation into the
scandal putters forward, and continue to flog it at every
opportunity. The appearance of former PM Chretien February 8
before the commission made for an interesting day, with the
former PM defending both the sponsorship program and the
success of his administration -- saying, in essence, we saved
the country and its economy, now cut us some slack on the
details. PM Martin will appear later in the week and will
take the tack that he didn,t know what was going on, which
has already been damaged by Chretien's testimony.

Prediction: The commission will continue to be an
embarrassment for the government and could bring some closet
Chretienites out in the open, exposing fissures in the
Liberal party. The Martin/Chretien appearance will be
controlled for negative fallout but nonetheless a good show.
No closure this year.

11. (SBU) Bloc Charm Offensive: Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe
has been working his way around the country giving briefings
to civic organizations, business councils, the diplomatic
corps, basically everyone who is anyone that will listen to
his pitch on why separation is a good thing for Canada and
its neighbors. He is soon to take the show overseas and will
continue the charm offensive through the spring. His
meetings have received a fair amount of attention and
generally positive write-ups. Duceppe apparently believes
that the in-your-face rhetoric of the past was not winning
friends and influencing anyone for the Bloc, and this softer
approach might be more effective. Still, it is not entirely
clear what he is up to, since support for separation outside
of Quebec is so marginal and there is no identifiable group
that would hear him out with more than begrudging politeness.
Bloc pollsters, however, insist that the sovereignty issue
is slowly gaining traction outside "la Belle Provence."

Prediction: Duceppe succeeds in putting a kinder, gentler
face on separation, without noticeably increasing support
among any groups of Canadians.

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